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The 2021 NBA season is underway and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for tonight, December 28th.
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Single Stat NBA Totals
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Seth Curry OVER 3.5 Assists - I'll start today's props with Sixer Seth Curry. We don't have great "Vegas value" here as this one comes in at +130, but there is some solid value here. While he started slow on the assists early on in the year, he's picked up of late, cashing out on this number in each of his last five games as well as eight of his last ten. Toronto is mostly average in some important metrics here, coming into this one 18th in shooting guard efficiency, 17th in assists allowed, and are allowing +0.2 assists per game over the league average to shooting guards. My early projections have Curry logging 4.2 assists tonight, so we have some decent value here.
Joel Embiid OVER 3.5 Assists - Same team, same prop, but a different player here as we take a look at Joel Embiid's assists prop. We have a slightly better "Vegas value" here, with this one coming in at -106. Embiid has hit this number in three of his last five, seven of his last ten, and at a 59% clip on the year. Toronto is 17th in center efficiency but allows -0.7 assists under average to the position. However, my early projections have Embiid at 4.8 assists tonight, so we're getting even better value than Curry's number.
Khris Middleton OVER 4.5 Rebounds - Probably my favorite play of the night, we look to the defending champs' Khris Middleton's rebounds prop. Vegas has this one at -120 as I'm writing this, and for good reason. Middleton has hit this number in three of his last five, seven of his last ten, and at a whopping 75% clip on the season. He has a strong matchup tonight against the Magic, who rank 20th in rebound rate, 22nd in small forward efficiency, and allow +0.8 rebounds over average to small forwards this season. My early projections have Middleton grabbing 6.2 rebounds tonight, making this a fantastic play on both PrizePicks and the sportsbook.
Other Recommendations - Gary Harris OVER 14.5 Points, Khris Middleton OVER 17.5 Points, LeBron James OVER 28.5 Points, Monte Morris OVER 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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