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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, April 19th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Nine games on Monday's slate are headlined by the surging Phoenix Suns and Giannis Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks. What should be the highest scoring game of the night, might not mean that each team's top scorer will be the ones leading their teams. Even though Devin Booker and Antetokounmpo are both safe against these specific defenses, they are still going to be one of the few players able to create space for teammates.
Look for players throughout that game to exceed their projected points, along with a majority of the Wizards-Thunder rosters. With the inconsistencies in this game, there isn't a predicted outcome that feels logical. Predicting blowouts seems as silly as thinking this current Thunder rotation can compete with a team that starts both Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. The more the game floats around my head, the more the chances of Beal and Westbrook resting tonight seem plausible.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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PHX @ MIL
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 27.5 Points - Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) LESS 26.5 Points
The biggest question mark here is whether or not Antetokounmpo will break through his projected. The Suns defense has some strength, but with just Deandre Ayton manning the paint, it isn't enough resistance to consider it worthy. After scoring 28 points in his second game back, even if Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday have a great game, the Bucks are going to need offense from their frontcourt, and that means forcing the issue at the rim and in the paint.
Devin Booker simply scores and he doesn't back down against the competition. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two of the better on-ball defenders in the league, but Booker is one of the top five individual scorers in the league. An "off" game for Booker against a good defense still means he gets his attempts and will score, he just might not contribute across the board statistics.
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WAS @ OKC
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 29.5 Points - Theo Maledon (OKC) MORE 13.5
Gut reaction assumes that the Wizards beat the Thunder handily and Beal doesn't get the chance to score 29 points. What will actually happen is the Thunder trounce the Wizards early, forcing Beal and Westbrook to will their team back into competition, making this one of the higher scoring games of the night. This is a lot of talk, but realistically, there is no real consistency that makes this an easy game to predict. The only certain here is that Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley aren't enough defense to put a limit on Beal's offense.
Theo Maledon's minutes have been there, but his production hasn't followed. Although his big games seem threatening and possible to happen at any time. Look at his game log. It's literally gross to look at and say to yourself, "Oh yeah, 14 points is nothing." If anything, him scoring 14 points is just as likely as him scoring 30. A bit of science and math say Maledon doesn't hit 14. My gut says he has a modest 15 in a game that should lead to extra minutes for players like Maledon, Ty Jerome and Svi Mykhailiuk.
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MEM @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 19.5
Jonas Valanciunas versus Nikola Jokic is usually a good matchup because neither backs down from scoring or on defense. Although we aren't comparing the skill of Jokic to that of Valanciunas, physically they match up extremely well. It will be easier for Jokic to try and go against Valanciunas all night than it will be trying to assume his shooters will be hitting against pesky defenders.
Unfortunately for Ja Morant, he continues to fall victim to the situation around him. The Grizzlies aren't a good team despite having one or two players that can consistently score the basketball, and that makes it hard for a point guard to produce with such limited capability. He can't shoot every possession because he doesn't have that skill, and he can't let his teammates try to generate offense. Morant is stuck driving the lane continuously in hopes his teammates can make something of his effort, just none of it is leading to points.
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UTA @ LAL
Jordan Clarkson (UTA) MORE 23.5 Points - Dennis Schroder (LAL) MORE 16.5
We venture back into Jordan Clarkson territory now that Donovan Mitchell will miss time, but that's not all bad for the Jazz. Clarkson is a more than capable scorer who thrives with every extra grain of usage he receives, so there is always going to be upside for him whenever a Jazz players misses time. Revenge games are all for show, but it doesn't hurt his chances of scoring against his former team that also struggles defensively.
Although Dennis Schroder is currently listed as probable, he's too important to the Lakers offense to assume he won't get his share of shot attempts. The tougher the defense, the more Schroder tries to prove there is no one capable of staying in front of him all game. If he doesn't score, he passes. If he can't pass, he'll score. It's just a matter of him actually converting and keeping the Lakers within striking distance.
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