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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! I have been trying to squeeze in some betting content between my daily coverage of NBA and MLB DFS and admittedly, it hasn't been that easy.
I hit a low point on Monday, going 0-4 for the first time this season and missing my first ATS bet as the Jazz failed to cover against the Mavericks. Everything seemed to wrong that night and I can only describe that slate as one of those "if you thought it was going to happen, it didn't" kind of nights. Let's get back on track today with four bets for tonight's seven-game slate.
If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, April 8th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 8-16
- Against the Spread 5-1
- Over/Under 1-5
- Teasers/Parlays 1-5
- Player Props 1-5
Against the Spread
Portland Trail Blazers (+6) @ Utah Jazz
I am going right back to the Jazz here. They've been one of the best teams at covering this season (61%) and even better as home favorites (74%). Portland has been playing better of late, but there's little reason to think they can hang with Utah today, who should have their full complement of offensive weapons and are rested. Utah is better in every facet of the game and their balanced approach relies less on the performance of one player than Portland, who need Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum to carry them offensively.
The Pick: Utah -6 (good up to -7)
Over/Under
Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (217.5 total)
This game is a straight-up toilet bowl as both of these teams are really, really bad. The Cavs are without their starting center Jarrett Allen but have Kevin Love back and at least have a few other offensive weapons in Darius Garland and Collin Sexton. Still, they are one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking 29th in the NBA in offensive rating.
Who's worse than Cleveland on offense? You guessed it - the Thunder! This version of OKC is absolutely atrocious as they are playing all young guys with very little NBA experience. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out for a long period of time and they decided to sit Al Horford down for the rest of the season and just let the youngsters play. The problem is these OKC guys are not emerging stars, most of them are late-round picks or cast-offs from other franchises. OKC has like 500 first-round picks in the next five years in the draft, but right now their actual players are some of the worst we have seen in the modern NBA (I know that's saying a lot).
With two terrible offenses and a fairly neutral pace projection, I am bucking the trend (the total has been going up this morning) and taking the under. I included a picture above of my model which has this game pegged for around 210 total points, so I think there's plenty of value here.
The Pick: Under 217.5 points (good down to 214.5)
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
We are going to keep it really simple today with a two-team ML parlay. I am going to put the Jazz in here as my first bet at -230 to win, just in case they happen to win without covering as insurance on my ATS bet. For my second team, I am going with the Bucks as +102 underdogs on the road in Dallas. Giannis is doubtful for Milwaukee tonight, but I think they can win without him and have shown that going 3-2 this season while Giannis is out. Both of those losses were close games against the Knicks and just the other night a one-point loss to the Warriors.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks lost to Houston last night even though they had both Doncic and Porzingis healthy and in the lineup. Of course, they beat Utah (to screw me over) on Monday and then lose to the lowly Rockets. They just are a very inconsistent team and they also happen to be 3-6 this season on back-to-backs, so I will roll with a rested Bucks team here that can be carried by Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and a cast of really solid role players.
The Pick: Bucks/Jazz ML parlay (+190 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. Today I am rolling with one of my favorite NBA players who a lot of people probably aren't too familiar with - Tomas Satoransky. T-Sat, or Sato, or whatever nickname we want to give him is an underrated player who is finally getting a chance to have a starting role in Chicago as their point guard. He's a lanky 6'7" European player who can stuff the stat sheet even when he's not scoring the basketball, and he knows that's not really his role with this Chicago team having two elite scorers now in Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls moved into the starting lineup to replace a struggling Coby White, who is more of a scorer, and less of a passer and he's been playing 30+ minutes now in his new starting role on most nights.
Tonight he'll face a Toronto team that is without Lowry, FVV, and now Deandre Bembry. Over the last 7 days, Toronto is allowing 7.4 rebounds and 8.7 assists to opposing point guards. Sato's PRA prop is set at 18.5 and he's only failed to hit that once in the last five games. I think he's good for it tonight with room to spare as the Bulls pour it on this banged up Raptors team.
The Pick: Tomas Satoransky over 18.5 PRA (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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