RADIO
Tonight we have a full 15 games slate. It can be tempting to place a lot of bets, I try to limit my action to no more than four to five wagers in a day, sometimes more like two or three. It all depends on the slate. If you have read any of my other work, it may not come as a surprise that I will say that it is really important to exercise sound bankroll management and bet responsibly!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: COL -145
CHC: Zach Davies| COL: Kyle Freeland
At Coors Field, we've got Zach Davies (6-7, 4.39) and Kyle Freeland (1-6, 4.52) on the mound. Since trading away their core of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant, the Cubs lineup looks different with Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, and Patrick Wisdom now being the core of the team. Colorado, surprisingly still has their team intact after the trade deadline.
Despite the high ERA from Freeland, he pitched well in July with a 2.40 ERA across 30 innings pitched. In his last two starts, he allowed one run in six innings against San Diego and one run in seven innings against the Dodgers. Unfortunately for him, he collected losses for those two games.
Davies has had a mediocre past month or so, with a 4.62 ERA across 25.1 IP in five starts. Looking at the recent form of the pitchers, I understand why Colorado is favored to win this game. So we are going to just go ahead, and lock in Colorado for this game then.... right?
Nope!
I actually like Chicago in this spot. Freeland does not strike guys out (17% K%) and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the game. Davies also does not strike guys out (16.3% K%) but is backed by a better bullpen than Colorado, despite the loss of Craig Kimbrell. Additionally, I like the under in this game as Game 1s in Coors after a road trip tends to be lower scoring than the rest of the games in the series.
Pick: Cubs ML (+120) DraftKings Sports Book, Under 11.5 Runs (-115) DraftKings Sports Book
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -165
PHI: Zack Wheeler| WAS: Patrick Corbin
Tonight we've got Zack Wheeler (8-6, 2.45) vs. Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.78) in what couldn't be a larger mismatch on the slate. Wheelers' underlying metrics support his surface stats, and sadly the same can be said about Patrick Corbin.
The Nationals are throwing out a AAA type of a lineup where Juan Soto and Josh Bell are now the only dangerous bats. Last night, Washington had Victor Robles, Adrian Sanchez, Yadiel Hernandez, Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia, Tres Barrera as the six guys around Soto and Bell. Yuck.
I see a game where Washington struggles to score, Corbin, struggles to prevent runs, and Philadelphia runs away with it. As long as the game is not any greater than -180 or so, I am willing to lay the juice. If when you try to place the wager it's at -185, -190, -200, etc., then go somewhere else.
Pick: Philadelphia (-165) BetMGM
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TAM -170
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi| TAM: Luis Patino
Baseball is always filled with surprises. Last night, I rolled Michael Wacha out there on my fantasy teams and he got shelled in a game I thought would be low scoring! Tonight we get two pretty good pitchers, in a pitchers park with a low total on the board. I am going to go back to the well in the sense that I believe this game will be low-scoring.
Yusei Kikuchi (6-6, 4.01) had a rough July posting a 6.11 ERA including allowing seven runs to the Angels and five runs to the Yankees. His underlying metrics are good though: 26.7% K% and a 3.72 SIERA.
Luis Patino (2-2, 4.26) has been up and down. He has shown the ability to shut down the Yankees, pitching 6 scoreless innings his last start. He has also shown the ability to get blown up against Cleveland (4 runs in 5.1 innings) and Toronto (5 runs in 5.1 innings). Patino has eerily similar metrics to Kikuchi with a 26.7% K% as well and 3.94 SIERA
Want to know what else is crazy? Seattle has won all five of their games against Tampa Bay so far this season.
With this game, you could say both starting pitchers are even, Tampa has the best bullpen ERA (3.14) in the American League (Seattle's is 8th with a 4.08 ERA). I lean Tampa here, just merely from the fact that losing six games in a row against a team is tough. I don't want to pay the juice in yet another spot on the slate though. Instead, I am going to look at the totals. I see the potential for a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers, one great bullpen, another solid bullpen.
Picks: Under 8 Runs (-105) DraftKings Sports Book.
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