RADIO
Bit of a mixed bag yesterday. The Indians and White Sox scored three late runs to take it over the 8.5 and lose us the first pick. The Phillies then embarrassed themselves and managed just one hit in six innings against a pitcher with a 5.89 ERA and then got shut out in the final two innings by a reliever with an ERA north of five. Needing two more runs in the final four innings, we were once again disappointed. But the Mariners beat the Rangers comfortably in our big pick of the day so salvaged things and made us a little bit of profit.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Daily articles covering a range of picks are available and you can always hit up any of the team on Twitter (@BellRoto, @stevejanik6, @LucidMediaDFS, @kipppsta, @MarkStrausberg, @Mark_Kieffer, @ThunderDanDFS and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo). Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-8 (-2.60 U)
- O/U Record: 7-13-1 (-5.80 U)
- Runline Record: 2-5 (-1.92 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-13 (-6.12 U)
- Prop Record: 17-15 (+2.23 U)
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN +110, NYM -120
CIN: Wade Miley | NYM: Rich Hill
The Mets made some moves at the deadline, including acquiring Javier Baez from the Cubs and he's likely to start tonight which should provide a boost to a Mets team being chased by the Braves and Phillies in the NL East. They dropped last night's game to the Reds 6-2 and are now 7-8 since the All-Star Break.
It's been a week of mixed news for the Mets after acquiring tonight's starter Hill, they also got Trevor Williams from the Cubs in the Baez trade and Carlos Carrasco made his season debut in last night's loss (allowing one run over 4.0 IP). But Jacob deGrom is likely out until September at the earliest following inflammation in his elbow after a bullpen session.
Tonight will be Hill's second start for the Mets and he'll look to turn things around as he's sporting a 5.09 ERA in July (17.2 IP) and gave up three earned runs in five innings on his Mets debut. The fact his season ERA of 3.95 is considerably better than his 4.72 xFIP does suggest the recent regression was due.
Miley is having himself a great season with a 2.86 ERA (107.0 IP and 18 starts) and has a no-hitter on his resume this year. His four July starts (25.1 IP) have yielded just six earned runs (2.13 ERA) and includes a start against the Mets in which he allowed just one earned run in 6.1 IP.
Both offenses have been good in July and rank in the top-10 for wRC+. The Reds are ninth (114) while the Mets are third (124). The Reds have scored 75 runs in 14 games (5.36 per game) since the All-Star Break while the Mets have scored 64 in 15 games (4.27 per game). Joey Votto comes into this game looking to homer in his eighth straight game (which now won't happen as I've mentioned it here).
I expect this to be quite a close affair and could come down to the bullpens. The Reds relievers have been bad all season but have improved in July and their collective ERA of 4.70 ranks 17th in MLB while the Mets bullpen ERA of 4.26 ranks 16th. The Reds look to have a slight edge on offense and starting pitching so I'll back the underdog here.
Pick: Total runs over/under - Over 8.5 (-105) 1 Unit
Pick: Moneyline - Reds (+110) 1 Unit
Pick: Runline - Reds -1.5 (+155) 0.5 Units
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: OAK -130, LAA +120
OAK: Cole Irvin | LAA: Jaime Barria
Tonight will be game three of this four-game series and the Angels are looking to score their first runs of the series after being shut out 4-0 on Thursday and 2-0 on Friday. Their offense has struggled since the All-Star Break and ranks 26th in wRC+ (92). They've scored just 51 runs in 14 games during that time (3.64 per game) which includes four games against the A's in which they've scored a total of one run.
The A's offense hasn't been much better with a 96 wRC+ which is tied-24th in MLB since the All-Star Break. They've scored 53 runs in 13 games (4.08 per game) and have scored four or fewer in ten of those games. Although they've shut out the Angels three times in four games this month, they've only scored a total of 16 runs themselves (4.00 per game).
So far this year, these two have played each other 14 times and there's been a total of 102 runs scored (7.29 per game). You might look at Barria's 6.23 ERA and think it's a given that the A's will put up runs, but he's only thrown 13.0 IP in the Majors this season and his only start was last week in which he pitched seven innings and allowed just two earned runs.
Barria's ERA stems from allowing seven runs in two innings against the Blue Jays on April 10th in a relief appearance. He's pitched 49.0 IP in Triple-A prior to last weekend's promotion and had a 4.41 ERA so while I don't expect another quality start, I don't think he'll be up their throwing out batting practice for the A's.
Irvin is having a breakout season with a 3.62 ERA in 20 starts (117.0 IP). This will be his fourth time facing the Angels this year and after allowing eight earned runs in 11.2 IP from his first two starts, his last outing against the Angels was a seven-inning shutout on July 19th.
I don't think the Angels will be kept off the scoreboard for the third straight day but they've not been prolific scorers recently and nor have the Athletics. The total runs line looks to be a reaction to Barria's ERA and I'll gladly take the under here.
Pick: Total runs over/under - Under 10 (-115) 1.5 Units
Prop Bets
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
Triston McKenzie has shown signs of improvement in his three July starts, allowing just three walks in 17.0 IP while striking out 18. Even before his demotion due to control issues, McKenzie had faced the White Sox three times and has 22 strikeouts in 11.1 IP from those games, and has a 29.8% K% on the season. I'll take McKenzie at -133 for over 5.5 Ks today.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish will look to help the Padres get back to winning ways after they dropped game two of the series 9-4 last night. He's struggled mightily in July with a 7.32 ERA from his four starts (19.2 IP). He's totaled only 13.2 IP in his last three starts and struck out just 11.
The Rockies have a 21.4% K% against right-handed pitching in July which is seventh-best in MLB. This will be their third time facing Darvish this year, and they've stuck out 16 times in 17 total innings. Their offense came to life a bit last night and maybe the trade deadline passing can help some Rockies hitters relax knowing they'll be playing in Colorado for the remainder of this year. I'd take Darvish at -139 to have under 7.5 Ks in this one.
Pick: Two-game parlay - Darvish under 7.5 Ks and McKenzie over 5.5 Ks (+201) 0.5 Units
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