RADIO
Matt Williams takes a look at some fantasy baseball trade questions for the 2018 MLB season. Players highlighted include: Noah Syndergaard, Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado
Happy Thursday Fantasy Baseball players! This week's mailbag dives into some of the bigger names in the game this week such as Noah Syndergaard, Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado. Be sure to send you trade questions and trade offers to me @MattWi77iams on Twitter for a chance to be included in next's weeks "Making Moves" article.
Trading is the most creative and fun way to improve your fantasy baseball roster, but also the hardest. You have to be able to value your own players objectively while accurately gauging how your fellow league owners value their own players. It is a battle of strategy, risk, and chance that can pay off in a big way if you know how to approach each situation. Be sure to have reasonable expectations and make offers that benefit both teams.
"But wait, I want to win the trade and fleece the other guy." I hear this all the time and it is a bad attitude to have if you want other players to deal with you again in the future. People value their own players higher than anyone else does, it's just the way it is. You don't want to insult another owner and gain a poor reputation, otherwise they will see you your trade offer in their email and simply delete it. Ever send an offer and not get a response? That is why. It is important to make trade offers that make sense for both sides while making your team better.
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The Mailbag Scoring System
Every week, I will be breaking down trade values as well as trade offers sent in by RotoBaller readers to shed some light on how to make the best deal for your team. I will be grading trades that have been sent in using the classic letter system. Here are examples of what those grades might mean:
- A: The reader won the trade. No risk, no downside. All victory.
- B: The reader won the trade, but it was fair enough.
- C: The trade was even for both sides and could go either way.
- D: Even though the move may have filled a need, it was a poor return
- F: What was the reader thinking?
- V: Good or bad, this trade is likely to be vetoed. (I do not condone vetoing trades.)
If you want me to grade your trade, send your fantasy baseball trade questions on Twitter to @MattWi77iams. Now, let's take a look at some trades you may be looking at this week in fantasy baseball.
Who's on the Block This Week?
Noah Syndergaard (SP, New York Mets)
Noah Syndergaard was just placed on the 10-day disabled list with a strained index finger. All reports seem to indicate this is a minor injury and the Mets are just taking extra precautions (insert "but it's the Mets so he is likely out for the season" joke here). The injury should not discount the right-handers trade value much, but we will of course consider it when discussing him today.
Syndergaard was having what most considered a "disappointing season" in 2018. Fantasy owners drafted the righty known as "Thor" to be their fantasy ace and they are upset that he is not going deep into games and the pick as a bust. This is about as far from reality as I have seen on a player's value this season. Noah Syndergaard has a 2.55 FIP folks. That is good enough for third in the National League, behind only Max Scherzer and teammate Jacob deGrom. It is also good enough for sixth in all of MLB, adding only Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, and Gerrit Cole in front of the right-hander. Is that a disappointment? For those who did not catch the missing names from the list, Syndergaard has a FIP almost a half a run lower than Chris Sale, and just a tenth under run and half better than Corey Kluber. The Queens ace holds a rock solid 10.58 K/9 with a 15.0% swinging strike rate, which is the fourth best in baseball (higher than Cole, Verlander, Kluber, and Severino.
Convinced yet? What if I told you that you were even more wrong than you thought? On top of all of the dominating metrics to back up Noah Syndergaard's ace like performance to date, he is one of only three pitchers in the top 30 in FIP that holds a BABIP over .300 (.339 to be exact). Not only has Syndergaard been fantastic, he may also have been a bit unlucky. The New York all-star has always held an above average BABIP for an ace, so don't expect this to impact him much going forward, but the point is that Noah Syndergaard is the guy you were hoping to draft. He is just hiding a little bit. We can also put to bed the notion that his velocity is down. It's true that the Mets were trying to have Syndergaard pull back from going "max effort" at all times, but it hardly had a noticeable impact on his overall numbers as shown in the chart below.
"I was offered Dee Gordon, Blake Snell, and L.Castillo for my Syndergaard, Alex Reyes, and Kelvin Herrera. I’m last in SB’s, K’s, and W’s. Accept or Decline?"
This trade was sent before Alex Reyes start on Wednesday afternoon. There seemed to be concern that Reyes left with a possible injury but reports after the game (as of now) seem to indicate the rookie was merely fatigued and will be fine going forward. That being said, the trade is fair enough if the owner needed SB badly. However if the Syndergaard owner is last in both wins and strikeouts, losing Noah and Reyes does not seem like the way to go. Snell and Castillo also pitch for two the worst teams in baseball, so wins may be harder to come by for the rest of the season, even though it has yet to stop Snell from picking up seven victories in the early going. It's true that Blake Snell and Luis Castillo are decent replacements for the strikeouts lost, but the trade seems more complicated that it has to be and I would be inclined to keep my own players in this deal.
I would have graded this trade a: C
The trade above was sent to me a few days ago and I advised the person to counter with a smaller trade for just Dee Gordon. Instead, they came back to me with this completely different transaction...
"I countered and he will do K.Hendricks and Snell plus Dee Gordon for E.Encarnacion and P.Corbin. Accept?"
Well this is different. Not only does the Syndergaard owner get to keep him and Reyes, but he managed to turn Patrick Corbin into Kyle Kendricks and Blake Snell. Corbin is having a fine season with a 2.47 ER and 3.02 FIP, but has come back to earth in May with a 3.52 FIP and 49.3% hard contact rate. Blake Snell has a 2.56 ERA and 3.41 FIP on the season with a 9.73 K/9. The way Corbin has pitched so far you can say this exchange will go in favor of the Arizona pitcher, but not nearly enough to tip the trade. That being the case, the owner recieves Kyle Kendriucks for free in the deal in the starting pitching side. I call that a win.
On the hitting end of the equation, giving up Edwin Encarnacion is a perfectly acceptable price to pay for Dee Gordon if the owner was searching for stolen bases. The Indians first baseman is heating up as of late, hitting .316 with three home runs over the last weeks, but is off to a concerning start of the season nonetheless. The veteran has sliced his walk rate in half in 2018, while increasing his strikeout rate by 8.5%. Traditionally a slow starter, there is plenty of time for Encarnacion to turn this ship around. However, with Dee Gordon due back on Thursday this offensive swap makes all the sense in the world. Gordon was batting .303 with 16 stolen bases before hitting the disabled list.
The bottom line here is that the team looking for stolen bases acquired a ton of them, all while somehow upgrading their starting pitching in the process. Great trade.
Let’s grade this trade an: A+
Manny Machado (SS, Baltimore Orioles)
Manny Machado has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, fueled by his pending free agency. The Orioles' shortstop is hitting .326/.394/.614 with a .417 wOBA and 166 wRC+ this season. He has collected 16 home runs, 45 RBI, and also managed to steal a couple of bags. There is not much more a fantasy owner could have hoped to get out of Machado this season. Does this hot start mean regression is on the way? Not really. The Baltimore all-star's walks are up, strikeouts are down, all while carrying a .288 ISO. Machado could easily carry this momentum all the way to the bank this fall. I would not be in a hurry to trade him.
"Trade advice please: I give up Didi, Teheran, W.Contreras, Hoskins for Machado and Bumgarner?"
The news of Rhys Hoskins' broken jaw and possible surgery changes the way this trade was originally valued at the time it was sent in, but the outcome would be no different so we will still discuss it. In trades like this, it is usually good to ask the who the player would be cutting from to roster to make this trade work. You my be pleasantly surprised that they are players you would actually want, so it never hurts to ask your trade partner to toss them in the trade too.
Even before his injury, Hoskins' value was at an all time low. The Phillies first baseman's season has been highlighted by a declined hard contact rate and skyrocketing swinging strike rate. If Hoskins did not get injured (which is a shame), he was likely going to get benched soon enough. Hopefully the slugging infielder can use his time off to his advantage and come back strong. Long story short, you didn't want to trade for Hoskins before or after the injury, and certainly not as the centerpiece to a trade.
The other players on the offensive side coming back in the deal are Didi Gregorius and Willson Contreras. Sir Didi got off to about a hot of a start as anyone could have, batting .327/.421/.735 with an amazing .408 ISO and .464 wOBA coming into May. He may have been the best player in the league in the early going (yeah, yeah, Mookie Betts, I hear you). The past month has not been so kind to the Yankees shortstop. Gregorious has seen an overall collapse in his production in May leading to a .146/.183/.213 slash line with an .067 ISO and -1.0 wRC+. Yes, a negative one weighted runs created plus. If he was the best player in baseball in April, he was certainly the worst in May. Now may be a good time to buy-low on the New York infielder, but I would want something more solid if I were trading Manny Machado, and Gregorious is not that.
Willson Contreras came into the season at the consensus number two catcher behind Gary Sanchez by most experts. While he has not lived up to the expectations set upon him in the preseason, Contreras is still having a fine season, carrying a .358 wOBA with four home runs. The Cubs' catcher has performed like a borderline top-10 catcher instead of a top two. I would say that Contreras does make for a solid buy-low at this point is the season and would expect him to make some noise when the weather really starts to cook in Chicago. Still, is he a player you want headlining the return of a Manny Machado deal? Nope.
For the sake of saving time we are not even going to dive in Julio Teheran and 5.29 FIP, and below average walk and strikeouts rates. He does not add value to this trade in the slightest. In fact, the Braves pitcher may be a net negative.
All things considered is this a fair trade for Manny Machado? You get Didi Gregorius, who has shown the ability to dominate at times and can carry your lineup. You get Willson Contreras, who has the talent to be the number two catcher in fantasy if he gets into a groove. You can stash Rhys Hoskins on your DL and hope for a bounce back down the road. Do those three players make a fair return? Maybe. I wouldn't be happy with the return if I owned Machado. I would want a certain reliable return that would make my team better.
So would I do the trade if I owned Machado? Of course not. If you forgot, this trade was for Manny Machado AND Madison Bumgarner. I wouldn't call this offer an "insult", but I certainly would not consider it for one of the best hitters in all of baseball right now plus a possible ace pitcher close to his return. Remember though, this trade was sent in by the person getting the Orioles shortstop and Bumgarner back in the deal, and to you I say congratulations.
I would give this trade an: B+
"Matt, I get Kluber and Anderlton Simmons for my Machado and Josh Hader, good deal or no? I need to get a good pitcher and I have the pieces to get one."
Well if you need to acquire a front line starting pitcher, Corey Kluber is a fine way to go. The Indians ace has a 2.17 ERA and a 3.37 FIP this season. On the other hand, Kluber has seen his strikeout rate decline due to a drop in both his swinging strike rate and his chase rate. I am sure that the Cleveland righty will be prefectly fine and be his typical dominate self, but I would rather see more positive signs out of my return for Machado. Maybe I am just difficult to please?
On top of trading Machado, you lose the new and improved "Andrew Miller" in Brewers' right-hander Josh Hader. Hader has been nothing short of amazing this season with a 17.81 K/9 and a 0.94 FIP. I mean, c'mon. Hader already has 62 strikeouts in 2018. Corey Kluber has 78. Josh Hader is being as effective as a Cy Young caliber pitcher, and he is doing it from the bullpen. He is not absorbing "games started" or a "starting pitcher" slot either. Fantasy owners may not realize just how valuable the Milwaukee set-up man has been. Well, now you know.
Now, if the trade were just Kluber for Machado and Hader I would be inclined to turn it down, but the owner also receives Andrelton Simmons. Does this change anything? The Angels shortstop is a very underrated commodity and is typically written off as just a "defensive specialist." That is far from the truth folks. Simmons is batting .335/.403/.477 with a .381 wOBA and 146 wRC+. He currently sits at four home runs and five stolen bases after going 14-and-19 just last season in those same categories. Let owners underestimate Simmons at their own peril.
The bottom line here is that the Machado owner needs a starting pitcher, and they receive a pretty good one in Corey Kluber. I would be very hard pressed to give up Josh Hader in the trade given the way he is pitching. However, I think the trade is acceptable given the fact that Simmons is also part of the return. I would prefer to ether keep Hader or get another piece back, but the trade seems fair as is.
I grade this trade a C+
Ken Giles (RP, Houston Astros)
"I really need saves! I get Gerrit Cole and Ken Giles for Joey Votto and Khris Davis? Who wins"
Sorry, but there is a reason the saying "Don't Pay For Saves" exists. Let's call, for the sake of argument, Gerrit Cole and Joey Votto a wash (it's close enough) That leaves us with Khirs Davis for Ken Giles. Are you willing to trde away a guarantee of 40 home runs for a closer? Forget that the closer is Ken Giles for a moment. Erase all of the times Giles almost lost his job this season. Is he worth 40 home runs now? If you do, consider this: Seranthony Dominguez. The Phillies right-hander holds a solid 1.14 FIP and 0.00 ERA right now in the Phillies bullpen. He is available on most leagues waiver wire right now too. Now if he were to be named the everyday closer tomorrow, who would you rather own? Better yet, would you rather own Ken Giles or Khris Davis AND Seranthony Dominguez. Easy call.
The point here is that saves always, always, always, come into a league. Do not trade a valuable piece of you offense to acquire saves. Saves will come to you if you are patient, savvy, and aggressive on the waiver wire. DO NOT PAY FOR SAVES. You're welcome. Even assuming the Votto owner really needed a starting pitcher, this trade is still a dud.
I would give this deal a: D-
Mookie Betts (OF, Boston Red Sox)
"Hi Matt, really need trade advice if you have time. Im in a 16 tm points League. Someone offered me Jose Ramirez straight up for Mookie Betts. I have Kyle Seager at 3rd who i would bench, and Yelich, Mazara, Brantley, Meadows, Herrera and Betts for 2 Of spots and 2 Ut."
This trade was sent in to me today on Twitter and I will share with you my short response, as I feel it covers the point fairly well:
"Hey, regardless of your need at 3B, Betts is the hottest commodity in Fantasy Baseball right now. JRam is a terrific player but the fact is you should command a better return, I would ask for a bit more, possibly another piece. If you truly want a 3B, Betts should land you Arenado right now honestly."
The reason I shared this trade with you all is simple. Making a trade is all about filling a need and making your team better. However, sometimes you have to know when you are holding a player with a little extra "bonus" value attached to them. There is a huge amount of buzz surrounding Betts, with many trying to throw him over Mike Trout as the best player in fantasy. Not yet people, not anytime soon either in my opinion. But like Trout, you can command a large return for a player like Betts and you should expect no less if trading them right now. Do not be "satisfied" with you return for a guy like this, be happy with the return.
I would give this deal a: C-
More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis
