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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With several games scattered throughout the day, we're left with a manageable six-game main slate on DraftKings and a seven-game mix on FanDuel. Today's matchups feature an intriguing array of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 6/21/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET for DraftKings and 6:40 pm ET on FanDuel. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. NYY ($10,100 DK, $10,600 FD)
Castillo is coming off an underwhelming outing against Miami, surrendering two earned runs with six walks over 5 2/3 innings pitched, but his outlook remains great. Castillo sports a 3.47 xERA and 3.42 xFIP through 14 starts. That includes a .218 xBA, .293 xwOBA, 29.6% strikeout rate, and a 33.7% whiff rate. He struggled with free passes during his last start, but Castillo carries a strong 6.9% walk rate for the season and hasn't issued more than two walks in any other appearance this season.
The Yankees' offense looks depleted without Aaron Judge. There are some dangerous names in the lineup, but no consistent production is to be found. New York carries a middling .708 ISO, .306 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers overall this season, and that's including the games with Judge.
Since he got injured, the Yankees are scoring just 3.2 runs per game over 12 contests. They haven't scored more than seven runs during any game in that span. There's always a possibility that Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, or Giancarlo Stanton catch fire, but it doesn't seem at all likely tonight.
It's tempting to pay up for Shohei Ohtani, though Castillo feels like the best intersection of price, matchup, and ceiling among the premium arms on this slate.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. OAK ($5,700 DK-only)
I won't normally push a punt play this hard, but Gavin Williams is going to be impossible to ignore. The Guardians' top pitching prospect is expected to make his MLB debut on Wednesday. Williams posted a 2.93 ERA across nine starts in Triple-A this season, producing a phenomenal 33.3% strikeout rate.
Obviously, many top prospects have failed in their debuts, so there is volatility, but Williams' ceiling massively outpaces his price tag. If you want to fit in the more expensive bats on this slate, this is an ideal place to start.
As far as debut opponents go, the Athletics offer the cushiest welcome to the big leagues. Oakland owns an MLB-worst .644 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a .126 ISO and 86 wRC+. They also strike out at a 25.8% rate, the second-highest mark in the majors.
Williams' inexperience opens the door to risk, but he's positioned to succeed in his debut. He's got strikeouts in his corner to illustrate his upside, and he draws the easiest opponent possible. In any event, it won't take too much to justify Williams' price tag.
Williams is not currently available on FanDuel's slate. If that doesn't get updated, Garrett Whitlock is not a terrible punt-price pivot option.
Also consider: Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Garrett Whitlock
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Manny Machado – 3B, SD vs. Sean Manaea ($5,100 DK, $3,000 FD)
It's been an underwhelming season overall for Machado, but his prowess against left-handed pitching has not faltered. He's batting .377 versus southpaws, including a .541 slugging percentage, 166 wRC+, and .414 wOBA. Machado has a career .212 ISO and .852 OPS against lefties.
Sean Manaea's troubles with right-handed pitching continue. They slugged .494 with 25 home runs against him in 2022, and that figure has jumped to a .523 slugging percentage this season. To all hitters, Manaea has surrendered a .483 xSLG, .360 xwOBA, and a 13.1% barrel rate. That amounts to a weak 5.49 xERA and makes the Padres as a whole look very good tonight.
Jake Burger – 3B, CWS vs. Martin Perez ($3,800 DK, $2,900 FD)
Burger is enjoying a breakout season at the plate. He sports a .859 OPS with 16 home runs. That includes a phenomenal .526 xSLG, 51.7% hard-hit rate, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, and 20.7% barrel rate. Burger's numbers look even better against southpaws, slugging .635 with a .385 ISO.
When Martin Perez is on his game, he generates plenty of weak contact and ground balls. That has not been the case this season, and the results haven't been pretty. Perez has surrendered a .284 xBA, .452 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA. Last season, he generated a 51.4% groundball rate, and that figure is all the way down to 40.9% in 2023. That all amounts to a 4.91 xERA and 4.86 xFIP.
Ezequiel Duran – SS, TEX vs. Michael Kopech ($3,100 DK, $3,000 FD)
Duran's production at the plate is flying under the radar this season. He carries a .306/.352/.508 slash line through 54 games. That includes a .288 xBA, .516 xSLG, 46.6% hard-hit rate, 11.3% barrel rate, and .365 xwOBA. Duran gets overshadowed by the rest of the Rangers' loaded lineup, but his affordable price does not adequately reflect his performance.
Kopech's surface numbers don't look bad, but his underlying metrics unveil hidden volatility. Kopech surrenders a .445 xSLG, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, and a 14.7% barrel rate, resulting in a 5.08 xERA. Right-handed hitters have been particularly successful against Kopech, slugging .472.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Fernando Tatis Jr. – OF, SD vs. Sean Manaea ($6,400 DK, $4,300 FD)
I have already highlighted the case against Sean Manaea above, but no Padres bat is better positioned to succeed than Tatis. He's slashing .291/.357/.568 with 15 home runs. That line consists of a .536 xSLG, .306 xBA, .390 xwOBA, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and 91.4 mph average exit velocity. Tatis is dominating left-handed pitching to the tune of a .740 slugging percentage and .420 ISO. Tatis is worth the price of admission.
Mickey Moniak – OF, LAA vs. Michael Grove ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD)
Unfortunately, we can't roster Ohtani as a hitter today, but there are several strong consolation bats in the Angels' lineup. Among them, Moniak is a strong value. He's been hitting leadoff against right-handed pitching lately and sports a .309/.333/.642 slash line with six home runs. That includes a .520 xSLG and 17% barrel rate.
Michael Grove has struggled during his brief MLB tenure. He owns a 5.32 xERA, including a .505 xSLG, .270 xBA, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, .355 xwOBA, and 10.3% barrel rate. Batters on both sides of the plate are crushing Grove, but lefties are slugging .654 against him thus far.
Esteury Ruiz – OF, OAK vs. Gavin Williams ($3,200 DK, $3,200 FD)
If you're not rostering Gavin Williams, it's not a bad idea to bet against the rookie. His game simply may not translate well in his first career start. It wouldn't be the first time a heralded prospect struggles.
The Athletics are thin on hitting options, but Ruiz is the most likely to run up a winning fantasy score. He's slashing a decent .264/.323/.344, which isn't all that impressive on its own. However, Ruiz's 37 stolen bases lead the majors, and that's what gets me excited. There are really not many great cheap outfield spots on this slate, so you can take a shot on a consistent contributor in Ruiz or punt for an even cheaper Seth Brown or Ramon Laureano.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
San Diego Padres vs. Sean Manaea
Based on the suggestions above, you may have picked up on my enthusiasm for the Padres tonight. They score a middling 4.2 runs per game, but their lineup is better against left-handed pitching. San Diego owns a .768 OPS against southpaws, including a .196 ISO and 111 wRC+. There's more than enough firepower in this lineup to take advantage of a vulnerable pitching spot.
Sean Manaea is having his worst season yet. He carries a weak 5.49 xERA, consisting of a .483 xSLG, .264 xBA, .360 xwOBA, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, and 13.1% barrel rate. Manaea gets hit hard, and the issue is particularly pronounced against right-handed bats, of which the Padres have many. The Giants have typically deployed an opener-long reliever approach for Manaea outings, but in either event, he should get something resembling a starter's workload.
Favorite Plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim
Texas Rangers vs. Michael Kopech
I don't need a lot of convincing to get excited about a Rangers stack. Texas scores a league-high 6.1 runs per game on the season. That includes a .788 OPS, .188 ISO, and 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their lineup is loaded from top to bottom, between premium spends like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, to midrange and cheap plays like Nate Lowe and Ezequiel Duran.
Michael Kopech's surface numbers are deceiving. He carries a 3.92 ERA, which is undermined by a 5.08 xERA. Looking further at the underlying numbers only gets uglier. Kopech sports a horrible 11.7% walk rate, 14.7% barrel rate, .445 xSLG, .348 xwOBA, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, and 42.1% hard-hit rate. Looking beyond Kopech, the White Sox bring the league's fifth-worst bullpen, boasting a 4.45 ERA.
Favorite Plays: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Duran
Also Consider: Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
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