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That which is dead will never die, Josh Gordon returns. Buy now before it's too late!
Some fantasy owners have been carrying a torch for Gordon ever since his breakout season in 2013, hoping for a return to glory. Gordon has had a lot of demons to exorcise and a lot of doubters to prove wrong over the years, but he's finally back.
Gordon was reinstated from his indefinite suspension on November 1 and will be eligible to return on Week 13, when the Browns face the Chargers. It's unlikely he takes the field immediately after two and half seasons away from the NFL, but dynasty owners may see an opportunity here. Is Gordon still a viable fantasy asset or simply a one-year wonder with too much baggage to take on?
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Josh Gordon: Reasons to Believe
It’s been four long years since Josh Gordon’s record breaking, back to back 200-yard performances. In 2013, Gordon played only 14 games, but in that time Gordon hauled in 87 receptions for 1646 yards and nine touchdowns; all with Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden under center. If we project this trajectory to 16 games, he would have accumulated 1,881 yards, which would have been the second-most by any wide receiver in a season in the history of the NFL. Even though four years have elapsed since the season he lit the league on fire, he’s not even 27. Mike Braud conducted a lucid survey of the age where receivers peak. He found that the age 26-27 year is often when wide receivers are the most effective, although they can be potent for many years after. This means that we’re getting Gordon at the best possible time, especially for dynasty formats.
It’s been a long road to this point
Josh Gordon has all the potential in the world, but his career up until this point has been derailed by his dependence on a variety of substances, and the willingness of those around him to cover up that addiction. Gordon has been suspended from the NFL multiple times, losing more than a total of three seasons of playing time. Gordon’s incredible abilities have warranted him far more chances than any other player before him, and now he has been granted his last chance to play in the NFL after convincing the commissioner that he is a changed man. Spending picks or players to acquire Gordon comes with the “baked” in risk of him falling off the wagon; but I want to believe that his desire to be his best self will overcome any distractions he may encounter. Gordon’s mini-documentary, Uninterrupted, details this journey better than I can here.
Why should we still believe?
Not only has Josh Gordon grown as a person, but he’s developed into the prime athlete that the community thought he could. He clearly is in game shape, as evidenced by pictures like this surfacing recently:
Combine that with reports that Gordon has shaved a whole two-tenths of a second of his 40-yard dash, it’s plain to see that Gordon has everything he needs to come back and contribute immediately at the highest level. Running at that speed, at that size is only matched by Julio Jones. There will be rust to shake off, but in dynasty formats you’re playing for the long term not for the next week. Even in re-draft formats, Gordon will have several weeks of practice along with a live game to play to integrate himself into Jackson’s system before the fantasy playoffs start. Gordon revealed that he was intoxicated in every game he plaid in since college, without the fog of a drug stupor dulling his senses, Flash could be even better than before given time.
Opportunities abound
The Browns have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL currently; only the Bears could challenge them for that sad title. According to profootballfocus.com, the Browns do not have a single receiver that has earned an above average grade on the year. Every receiver has been unable to gain separation against man coverage, and haven’t been able to do anything with their opportunities when they rarely catch the ball. The best “receiver” on the team has been running back Duke Johnson who grades out at a very respectable 81.4. When Gordon returns to the team, he will immediately be the top receiver on the team. Gordon has shown the ability to beat double coverage on a regular basis in the past, and with his prime physical condition, is likely to do so again. Not everything about the Browns’ situation is grave, in the off-season the front-office spent a fortune to beef up their offensive line, and according to PFF the results have been solid. No line could perform at the same level after losing an all-pro left tackle, but the Browns have managed to play well even with the loss of Joe Thomas. Besides the left tackle, PFF has graded each other member of the line above average, with Zeitler and Bitonio grading to the point to where they could start on any team. With these linemen protecting whoever is the QB in Cleveland, it would make sense that Gordon could perform to a similar level to how he did in 2013.
In the here and now, Gordon has four games to play before the end of the fantasy season. This isn’t as easy of a hill to climb as many have, but there are opportunities for Gordon to help your team during a championship run. The Browns play the Chargers, Packers, Ravens, and Bears to end the fantasy season. The Chargers are ranked 11th against the pass, the Packers are ranked 20th, the Ravens 3rd, and the Bears 10th. This means that Gordon’s best opportunities lie in his first two weeks of his return, and there is ample opportunity during that time to show enough potential that his value may rise immensely very quickly. If you want to get one of the highest upside players on your team, you need to act before week 13 or it could be too late. A mid to early second round pick may still be sufficient to trade for Gordon, or in re-draft a low-end starter. If Gordon lives up to a fraction of his potential, the investment will be well worth the loss.
We have to remember that what Josh Gordon did is unprecedented for someone his age, his mental state, and with his supporting cast. There are many reasons to believe that Flash can return to form, and the best is yet to come. Last week, Josh Gordon said his objective is to be the greatest receiver that has ever played the game. As cliché as that may sound, he is one of the only receivers in the NFL that could live up to a shadow of that honor.
