Is Patrick Mahomes A Top-Three Quarterback In 2024 Fantasy Football?

June 12, 2024

Alex Ciulla breaks down whether Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be a top-three quarterback for the upcoming 2024 fantasy football season. What is Mahomes fantasy football outlook.

For many years in fantasy football drafts, the "late-round" quarterback strategy was a tried and true blueprint when constructing fantasy rosters -- form an edge with your skill positions and worry about scooping up a quarterback later. In recent seasons, we've seen a significant rise in QB ADP because the elite options provide much more of a positional advantage.

When it comes to drafting quarterbacks, I usually prioritize those with rushing upside. The value they bring with their mobility is a game-changer on a weekly basis. However, there's one player who stands out from this rule, and that's Patrick Mahomes. His unique skill set and exceptional performance make him an exception to the rushing upside strategy.

Presumably, if you drafted Mahomes last season -- you were less than happy. On average, in 2023, he was the first quarterback selected in fantasy drafts but finished as the QB8 in four-point-per-passing-touchdown formats and the QB12 in fantasy points per game (18.4). This season, Mahomes is still being drafted third overall at his position in NFFC ADP, so it warrants the question, "Is Mahomes a top-three quarterback in 2024?" Yes. Absolutely, without a doubt, yes.

Patrick Mahomes 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

The way I view Mahomes is similar to how Mike Trout was viewed in fantasy baseball circles for many years. If you're unfamiliar, Trout was a consensus top pick in drafts for a long stretch, regardless of his finish the year prior. The talent was too much to overlook, and players are subject to variance. It's incredibly challenging to finish as the top overall scorer on a season-by-season basis, but I want the player who gives me the best chance to win -- that's how I feel about Mahomes.

2023 marked Mahomes' worst finish in his career, aside from his rookie season when he appeared in just one game. He actually had the highest completion percentage of his career last year (67.2%), and that's despite his receivers collectively leading the league in dropped passes (35).

In fact, if we factor in that scoring was down leaguewide last season, it's easy to see why Mahomes was such a disappointment. In addition, he rushed for the highest yardage total of his career (389) while toting the rock the most he ever has (75 attempts) but scored no rushing touchdowns. He had scored at least two of those every other season as a full-time starter and had four rushing scores as recent as 2022. I love that Mahomes isn't a zero in the rushing department, as those hidden yards add up come season's end.

As per PlayerProfiler, Mahomes ranked first in true completion percentage, fourth in catchable pass rate, and third in clean pocket accuracy rating. He was playing some of the best ball of his career but was let down by a subpar supporting cast.

Most encouragingly, for his 2024 outlook, Kansas City made it a clear priority to strengthen its arsenal of weapons. The speedy likes of Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy should help Mahomes improve upon his career-worst 7.0 yards per attempt -- a metric he has routinely sat above 8.0. While Travis Kelce might be on the back nine of his career, the development of Rashee Rice -- if he can stay out of trouble -- should be enough to offset this.

STOP IT @PatrickMahomes 🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/SAbNyCcBER

— BWT Alpine F1 Team (@AlpineF1Team) May 5, 2024

I have a firm conviction Mahomie will turn it around in 2024. The down year is the anomaly thus far, and Kansas City's concerted effort to surround him with more playmakers is enough to keep me coming back for more this upcoming season.

His career-low 27 total TDs should climb back up to the 40.8 average we saw him accumulate the five seasons prior. In spite of the below-average output, the Chiefs still racked up the third-most pass attempts in the NFL, with the second-highest rate of team pass plays per game. Don't lose faith.

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