Points Leagues Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 18

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 18 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents to add and pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of July 26 - August 1, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Friday, July 23.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The Hansels

Let the recency bias wash over you because these players are just so hot, right now. So, just for fun, let's start with a chart of the starting pitchers who are in the top-75 APR over the last three weeks:

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

• Jameson Taillon, NYY - Taillon has been excellent as of late, picking up the win again on Saturday against the Red Sox, allowing 1 ER over 7 IP and striking out four. He has a juicy matchup this week, facing a Marlins team that has a .295 wOBA and 25.3% K% versus RHP.
• Austin Gomber, COL - Gomber returned from the IL on July 21 to pick up the win against Seattle, allowing three earned runs (on three solo home runs) in six innings, further cementing that he's figured out how to beat Coors. That's not really a thing but Gomber continues to be excellent and has a great matchup in Week 18. Wait, Nicklaus, doesn't Gomber face Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres? How is that a good matchup? San Diego may have.317 wOBA and 21.7% K% vs LHP this season but in three chances against Gomber the results have been much different. In three starts versus the Padres, Gomber has allowed one earned run in 19.1 IP, striking out 17.

Can Adds

• Tylor Megill, NYM - Megill has been terrific lately, posting a 0.87 ERA in his four starts in July. However, prior to that, he had a 4.82 ERA in two starts against the same Braves that he'll face this week. While this Atlanta team no longer has Ronald Acuna Jr., I'm still being cautious.
• Jordan Montgomery, NYY - Tampa Bay is very good but also has issues vs LHP, running just a .299 wOBA against them, with a 26.9% K%.
• Rich Hill, NYM - I get wanting to pounce on the sexiness of someone who just got traded but Hill just hasn't been very good since being lights out in May. Since June 1, Hill has a 4.70 ERA (5.48 FIP).
• Tyler Anderson, PIT - Both of Anderson's Week 18 opponents love striking out versus LHP, with Milwaukee posting a 26.4% K%, and Philadelphia putting up a 25.9% K%.
• Spenser Watkins, BAL - Watkins has just a 1.76 ERA over his four starts but a 4.02 FIP and 5.18 xFIP don't speak very positively to the skills. However, he does have a great two-step in Week 18, getting Miami (.295 wOBA vs RHP) and Detroit (.306 wOBA vs RHP).
• Dane Dunning, TEX - Dunning is another suspect pitcher that has a spicy two-start week, lining up to face Arizona (.295 wOBA vs RHP) and Seattle (.296 wOBA vs RHP).
• Domingo German, NYY
• Drew Smyly, ATL - Smyly was supposed to face the Mets but things are currently up in the air after he left his start on Saturday with a balky knee.
• Adrian Houser, MIL - Pittsburgh is bad vs RHP, with a .299 wOBA and 22.0% K%.
• Eric Lauer, MIL - Pittsburgh is slightly worse vs LHP, with a .293 wOBA and 21.8% K%.
• Brett Anderson, MIL - See, above.
• Jon Gray, COL
• Jake Odorizzi, HOU
• Bailey Ober, MIN
• Madison Bumgarner, SF
• Casey Mize, DET - Baltimore can crush them some lefties but are pretty bad vs RHP, running a .291 wOBA and a 24.9% K%.
• Matt Manning, DET - See, above.
• Tarik Skubal, DET - Be careful here, as the Orioles can put a hurt on LHP, posting a .325 wOBA against them, with just a 22.3% K%.
• Ross Stripling, TOR
• Zach Thompson, MIA - Thompson has a 2.45 ERA over the first seven starts of his career and gets a good matchup versus the Yankees, who have a .307 wOBA and 25.0% K% vs RHP this season. Just don't get crazy thinking he'll pick up any win points.
• Alex Cobb, LAA - Cobb has a decent matchup with Oakland on the horizon but keep in mind that he left his last start with a blister on his index finger.
• Patrick Sandoval, LAA - Sandoval is coming off of the best start of his season, nearly no-hitting the Twins on Saturday night, while striking out 13 in 8.2 IP. He lines up to face Oakland in Week 18, who has posted a .313 wOBA and 23.2% K% vs LHP.
• Cal Quantrill, CLE - St. Louis continues to be pretty bad vs RHP, running a .296 wOBA and 22.1% K% against them in 2021.
• Tanner Houck, BOS - Houck is coming off a terrific outing versus the Yankees, striking out eight over 4.2 IP but has a dicey matchup with the Blue Jays in Week 18. Facing righties this season, Toronto has a .338 wOBA, with just a 21.6% K%.
• Kyle Muller, ATL

Desperate Adds

• Adbert Alzolay, CHC - He gets two starts but they're tough ones, facing Cincinnati and Washington. I'd be very careful here.
• Michael Pineda, MIN
• Logan Webb, SF
• Cole Irvin, OAK -Irvin has been excellent but has a difficult matchup facing an Angels team that has a .337 wOBA vs LHP, with just a 21.3% K%.
• Wily Peralta, DET - The unlikely Wily Peralta hype-train hit its first big bump in his last time out, allowing 5 ER to the lowly Royals. Peralta still has a 2.56 ERA but it's backed by a 4.82 FIP and 4.65 xFIP.
• Kyle Freeland, COL
• Chad Kuhl, PIT

Notable IL

• Danny Duffy, KC
• Matthew Boyd, DET
• Brady Singer, KC
• Joe Ross, WSH
• Jake Arrieta, CHC
• Justus Sheffield, SEA
• David Peterson, NYM
• Corey Kluber, NYY
• Huascar Ynoa, ATL
• Elieser Hernandez, MIA
• Carlos Martinez, STL
• Spencer Turnbull, DET
• Tucker Davidson, ATL

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Must Add

• Gregory Soto, DET - Since celebrating the fourth of July by allowing three earned runs to the White Sox, Soto has five saves and a 1.42 ERA.
• Joakim Soria, ARI - Heading into the weekend, Soria had a 2 APR over the past two weeks and has six saves since earning his first one of the year on July 1, striking out 13 batters in 9 IP.
• Heath Hembree, CIN - Hembree still has the job and is still getting it done, collecting seven saves in 10.2 IP since July 1, posting a 1.69 ERA (0.72 FIP).
• Paul Sewald, SEA - Remember what I said in the introduction about it being hard in most point formats for a non-closing reliever to earn value? That doesn't really apply when you have a 42.7% K%. Sewald has an 18 APR over the last two weeks, with three saves and 19 strikeouts in his 10 IP since July 1. It's hard for me to put aside my severe Graveman love but damn it, I just love me some Sewald.

Can Add

• Ranger Suarez, PHI
• Hansel Robles, MIN

Notable IL

• Lucas Sims, CIN
• Tejay Antone, CIN
• Michael Fulmer, DET
• J.P. Feyereisen, TB

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