RADIO
Friday nights in the NBA are where it's at! There's nothing better than being welcomed to the weekend by a big old 9-game slate. To recap last night's picks it was an overall loss mainly due to player props. The Hawks pulled off the upset to kick things off, but the Grizzlies weren't able to get it done in Boston. The Warriors and Mavs scored a whole bunch of points killing our under but the Clippers came through late with a blowout of the hapless Lakers. Reggie Jackson crushed his assists prop, but Terrance Mann went the entire first half without a rebound. Poeltl just missed his PRA prop and Seth Curry missed his points prop, too. Just to remind you, I usually put out my spread and total bets in the morning then I update this article no later than 3:00 PM with any player props that I love as the books are usually slow to get them up or are waiting on injury updates.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, March 4, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 114-106-2
- Against the Spread 61-50-2
- Over/Under 25-36
- Other/Props 28-21
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Indiana Pacers (-3.5) @ Detroit Pistons (230.5 total)
Detroit pulled out a nice road win last night in Toronto, but barely as they only won by two points despite leading by 15 going into the fourth quarter. The Raptors were ripe for an upset without several key starters and playing so many games in such a short period since the break.
The Pacers came through for us last time, though it took overtime for them to cover against the Magic in that one. I've said it before but I am intrigued by this new look Indiana team and I think they're going to give good teams trouble and win some games against bad teams down the stretch.
Malcolm Brogdon and Tyrese Haliburton make a formidable backcourt duo and Buddy Hield finally has the green light to fire away from deep. The trio of Brissett, Jackson, and Smith inside is an exciting group and they've basically nudged Goga Bitadze all the way out of the rotation.
Detroit is on a back-to-back here and their point differential in those games this season is third-worst in the league at -12.8. I know they've played better lately, but I think they got their big win last night and we see Indiana handle them here.
The Pick: Pacers -3.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) @ Washington Wizards (221.5 total)
Part of me feels like I should be going back to the well on the Hawks here and that I should just be thankful they came through in the fourth quarter last night in a big win over the Bulls. Trae Young is just special and it's really fun watching him in clutch time. Not only was he making big shots, but he was also finding his shooters for open looks. Even without John Collins, this Atlanta team has been scrappy and there is a fairly large talent gap here between them and Washington.
The Wizards still haven't got to see Porzingis in action yet since they acquired him and they're basically playing a bunch of young guys who they want to get a look at for their rebuild. Kyle Kuzma has been fantastic and there are some good young players on this team, but Atlanta really needs to keep winning as they're fighting for a playoff spot and I'll take them here based on their solid recent play and Trae Young's clutch factor. The Hawks find a way to win (and cover) tonight.
The Pick: Hawks -2.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-8) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (230.5 total)
Okay so I know the Thunder hurt us against the Kings, but I'm going back to them tonight despite my better judgment probably. Is this team good? No. Do they continue to surprise teams? Yes - just ask the Nuggets who got caught sleeping on them on Wednesday night. OKC pulled off a 12-point upset of Denver behind 29 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 26 from big man Isaiah Roby.
The Wolves are having their best season in some time, but their defense is not their strength as the fact that we have a game with the Thunder in it that has a 230-point total is proof that everyone in Vegas knows that. Minnesota is missing Anthony Edwards again tonight and their overall point differential this season is only +1.3. That tells me they've been in a lot of close games and gives me some hope that the Thunder (who remember have the second-best record ATS in the league this season) can hang with them or even steal a win.
I'm not predicting the upset, but I like the home dogs here with the points. In SGA we trust!
The Pick: Thunder +10 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
No totals picks today. Scoring continues to be on the rise in the league in the second half and even when I weigh the most recent 10-game sample more highly in my model I'm still getting a ton of unders in my projections.
If you wanted to take a shot at Cavs-Sixers under, it's the biggest discrepancy in the model but we have seen some increased offensive efficiency from the Sixers in the Harden era and I'm probably not going there today.
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 UPDATE
Tyrese Haliburton over 3.5 rebounds (-125) - Haliburton had only three boards last time out but had four or more in six straight before that. He's very active on the boards for a guard and locked into big minutes alongside Brogdon.
Scottie Barnes over 25.5 points/rebounds (-125) - No FVV again tonight and Orlando has allowed nearly three more points/boards to the PF position than league average. Barnes has a double-double in three straight games and has cleared this number with relative ease.
Clint Capela double-double (+105) - This is really reliant on John Collins' status but I think he's probably going to be out again since the Hawks just played last night and we haven't had any positive updates on him. The Wizards allow 2.6 points/rebounds more than league average to centers and Capela has two double-doubles in his last five games while flirting with one the other night (8 points, 9 rebounds) in only 18 minutes against Toronto.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: 3-team 5-point teaser (+150)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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