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We've got one of the biggest NBA slates of the season tonight with 14 games! It's the "storm before the calm" as tomorrow there will be no games as the NFL takes center stage on Christmas Eve. Speaking of storms, I hope you're ready for some cold weather and snow in the midwest and northeast as it looks like we just might have a white Christmas after all (and some temps dropping into the teens today - brr!)
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 23. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 72-78
- Against the Spread: 34-34
- Game/Team Totals: 11-20
- Moneyline Parlay: 9-16
- Teasers: 17-7
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
LA Clippers (+3) @ Philadelphia 76ers (216.5 total)
We have a theme going today as all my ATS picks are either home favorites or road dogs. Spoiler alert, I am on the home favorites here because I am simply not interested in betting against Joel Embiid right now. The man has been unstoppable over his last ten games since returning from a brief stint on the bench with an injury. He has been carrying the Sixers all season as they didn't have Harden for a few weeks and have been missing Tyrese Maxey now for nearly a month, too.
Philly is 7-3 in their last ten games and playing some great basketball, especially on defense as their defensive rating over that stretch is 5th-best in the NBA. The Clippers play some solid defense as well, but are more limited on offense and rely a bit too much on Paul George and Kawhi Leonard at the moment. This game has one of the lower totals and should be a battle, but the duo of Harden-Embiid is simply too good and I don't see the Clippers having an answer. I like how Tobias Harris is playing, too, and he might be a difference-maker in this one to tip the scales toward the Sixers.
The Pick: PHI -3 (-110)
Toronto Raptors (+4.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (215.5 total)
I intentionally did not recommend the Cavs spread against the Bucks the other night so as to not jinx them and it worked as they secured a huge win over the Bucks. Maybe I jinxed the under instead because it just missed, probably because Jrue Holiday and Donovan Mitchell both banked in two threes in the final seconds of the third quarter. But whatever, I was still stoked for the Cavs.
The Raptors beat the Cavs back in the first week of the season in Toronto, but these teams look quite different as we look at where they are now. Cleveland has one of the best records in the NBA and is finally getting healthy. They're simply playing some elite team basketball right now on the defensive end and getting enough offense from Donovan Mitchell and their big men to carry them to a 7-3 record over their last ten.
The Raptors got a nice win in New York the other night behind 52 points from Pascal Siakam, but I don't think they have the firepower to contend with the Cavs or the depth off the bench. If Gary Trent Jr. comes back tonight, that certainly helps, but I can't get away from Cleveland here with such a low number as they've been dominant as home favorites this year going 12-4-1 ATS with a 10.8-point margin of victory!
The Pick: CLE -4.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks (+2.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (227 total)
Let me start by saying this. I don't like the Nets. I don't like Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant. I actively cheer for them to lose and I enjoyed watching them get throttled by the Celtics in the playoffs last season.
But I do like money! I watch the NBA every night and I have to say that I have come away quite impressed with the 180 that Brooklyn has done in the last month of the season. They fired their coach and there were all kinds of drama surrounding Kyrie, Ben Simmons, and KD in the offseason as well as some warning signs that there were some locker room issues.
But the Nets are 9-1 over their last ten games and with 20 wins on the season have the fourth most wins in the NBA.
The Bucks really struggled offensively against the Cavs the other night and it took a crazy awesome performance from Giannis to keep them in that game. They're still without Khris Middleton and that hurts them more than anyone cares to admit. And while Milwaukee is a solid defensive club, they're facing a team tonight that has been incredibly efficient and impressive on offense of late. Ben Simmons has fit nicely into his role and compliments KD and Kyrie really well, while Nicolas Claxton has emerged as a legit big man who can give them solid rim protection, too. The other pieces like Seth Curry, Joe Harris, and TJ Warren are even playing well and giving this team some much-needed depth that it was lacking earlier in the year. This Brooklyn team is a much better version of itself than the team that lost to the Bucks 110-99 back in October.
Damn, I am getting long-winded again. The bottom line is that the Nets are better than Bucks RIGHT NOW, and even if I don't want them to win tonight, I think they're going to (by 3 points or more, hopefully).
The Pick: BKN -2.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers (+7) @ Miami Heat (225.5 total)
The numbers and trends back this pick, but the old eye test certainly agrees, too. The Pacers are coming off a big win over the Celtics in a game where they led by 20+ points multiple times and now head to Miami to battle with an underachieving Heat team. Miami feels like they are missing a core player just about every night, but they may actually have Bam-Butler-Herro-Lowry all available tonight. The key for Indiana here is Tyrese Haliburton who is questionable, but I think it's likely he plays. If he's out for any reason, then I would probably bail on this pick entirely.
Indiana beat this team once already and fought them to within five points in their last meeting about two weeks ago. They're good and continue to play beyond preseason expectations, while Miami continues to underwhelm and fail to live up to theirs. This spread is just too wide, unless Haliburton really is in jeopardy of missing the game.
The Pick: IND +7 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans (+2) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (231.5 total)
Yes, the Pelicans are on a back-to-back and will be without Brandon Ingram (still) and Zion Williamson, but who cares? CJ McCollum was filthy again last night, posting a massive line in an easy win against the Spurs and this Pelicans team got solid contributions from their rotation in yet another win.
I know how good the Thunder have been this year, but they shouldn't be favored here against the team that could be argued has been the best team in the Western conference so far this season. Jonas Valanciunas will eat on the interior and CJM is too hot right now to bet against. The no-name guys for New Orleans continue to do their thing, too, and I give the Pelicans a big advantage here with their second unit, too. We are betting the money line here at plus odds and pulling for a Pelicans "upset."
The Pick: NOP ML (+110)
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Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Phoenix Suns (226 total)
If you love watching really good basketball, then this is the game to tune into tonight on League Pass. Memphis is coming off two disappointing losses to Denver and OKC in their last two games but had won seven straight before that and now they get Phoenix on the road without Devin Booker (and Cam Payne) in what feels like a nice bounce-back spot. The Suns really struggled without Booker on Tuesday, dropping a game to a very mediocre Washington Wizards team that didn't even have Porzingis and they are playing a bunch of role players (dudes like Ish Wainwright, Damion Lee, and Landry Shamet) bigger minutes than they would ever want to.
Memphis is so solid from top to bottom and Ja Morant is having such a great year. CP3 will always be the "point God" but he's struggled shooting the ball this season (trust me, I have him on some fantasy teams and I wasn't expecting 40% from the field from the top FG% point guard) and he's much better at this stage of his career as a passer than a scorer. Three points just doesn't seem like much to cover for Memphis and I think they could totally wax the Suns here as this is a bad matchup for their ailing team.
The Pick: MEM -3 (-110)
Charlotte Hornets (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (236.5 total)
I'll start by saying that I like the over in this game, but the total is already pretty darn high and after some careful consideration I landed on a side instead. Yes, I am betting on the Lakers to cover at home and no I have not been kidnapped, I am choosing that of my own free will.
Listen, the Lakers are not good, but the Hornets might suck worse in terms of just how bad they've been this season. I thought the return of LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward would really help them, and it has helped them score more points on offense for sure. But they still can't stop anyone on defense and continue to allow teams to roll up 120+ points on them with regularity.
Terry Rozier could return for this game and give the Hornets a boost, but the Lakers are also getting back Russell Westbrook, who has surprisingly played pretty well off the bench this year and doesn't really deserve the blame this season for the Lakers' poor performance (or at least a much of the blame as he deserved last season anyway).
Anyways, the Lakers have this guy named LeBron James and he's pretty good at basketball. And he's starting to go into peak "put this team on my back" mode now that Anthony Davis is out. And I expect him to drag this LA team across the finish line tonight as the Lakers badly need a win here against a very poor opponent. Just win by four games tonight, Bron, then rest up for the showdown with Luka on Xmas day.
The Pick: LAL -3.5 (-110)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: NYK + SAC + ATL + BOS = (+189 DraftKings)
These underdog teasers have been some of my best bets this season, check the record!
5-point Underdog Teaser: IND +12 + POR +10 + MIN +14 + NOP +7 = (+190 DraftKings)
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