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We're almost a month into the season, which means that the lists of contenders and pretenders are becoming clearer. Stats are beginning to stabilize, and we should be able to use some increasing sample sizes to take advantage of valuable betting lines. Let's get to it!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, April 29, 2024. Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter/X @BellRoto for more MLB content and banter!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)
This number just seems low for a pitcher of Rodriguez's ability. The Yanks have done a decent job of putting the ball in play this year so far, but the Orioles right-hander has hit this mark in four of his first five starts. I expect him to go at least six innings in his hitter-friendly home park, so a strikeout per inning is fair value for -110 odds.
Ryan Pepiot Over 15.5 Outs (+100, DraftKings)
Pepiot has shown tremendous upside so far, with strong strikeout, hard-hit, and home run rates. The walks raise some eye brows, and that's the one area where Milwaukee could exploit the young righty, but the Brewers have been a bottom-half lineup against RHPs without Christian Yelich in the lineup. Pepiot has gone 16 outs or more in four of his five starts this year. I'll hope Yelich is out one more game here and hop on this generous number at +100 odds.
Bailey Falter Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
Falter had one of the worst starts you could imagine to his Pirates career, allowing six early runs to the Marlins while throwing his four-seam fastball 40% of the time. So what did he do? He jacked up his fastball usage to over 70%, and it became one of the most valuable pitches in baseball over his last four starts.
Bailey Falter's 5th and 6th Ks pic.twitter.com/zQ8jqmxBV4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2024
The southpaw has been locating his best pitch even better each outing, increasing his strikeouts along the way (he accrued 8 Ks against the Brewers last time out). Falter gets an Oakland squad that ranks 24th in the league in K% against LHPs. Plus odds on an Over 4.5 strikeout line feels like a gift. Let's hope the fastball gets some more whiffs on Monday night.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Senzel Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115 DraftKings)
Senzel has been one of the hottest power sources in baseball over the past week, collecting five homers in his last five games. The Reds should continue to reward him with a higher spot in the batting order, making this line too generous with some dangerous Cincy hitters around him. The Reds face homer-prone lefty Ryan Weathers on Monday night.
Bryce Harper Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105, DraftKings)
I expect six at-bats for Harper in what should be a great offensive day for the Phillies against right-hander Griffin "Gas Can" Canning. Harper will be right in the middle of the production, and we know it can eclipse this line in the blink of an eye. Take the plus-money value here.
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