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Kevin Hickey's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. The regular season is winding down, which creates more variables and more opportunities to gain an edge. Football season can wait because I'll be all over baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've treading water this season, going 20-20-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting back in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for September 9, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-185)
MIA: Johnny Cueto | PHI: Aaron Nola
We'll begin with a square-off between two teams with legitimate postseason hopes. Although the NL East fully belongs to the Braves at this point, the Phillies sit comfortably atop the National League Wild Card race, and the Marlins are just a half-game back from the third Wild Card slot. Both teams will need to finish out the season strong, which gives this game real stakes. That said, I think there's a clear favorite in this one.
Johnny Cueto takes the bump for the Marlins on Saturday. He carries a 5.54 ERA through eight appearances this season. The advanced metrics are a little more forgiving, but a 4.44 xERA and 4.97 xFIP will not inspire much confidence. Cueto is now 37 years old, and I'm about ready to write him off as cooked.
The Phillies' offense meandered for much of the season, but there's been a different outlook in the second half. Philadelphia is scoring 5.5 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a 119 wRC+, .817 OPS, and .350 wOBA. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner's bats have come alive recently, and their lineup is finally realizing its potential.
Philadelphia will nominate Aaron Nola to start today. His surface numbers leave something to be desired, but the underlying metrics are much more supportive. Across 28 starts, Nola sports a 3.81 xERA and 3.79 xFIP. The reality is that he hasn't pitched as well as he did in 2022, but Nola is still capable of a lockdown performance, and he is absolutely the superior pitcher in this matchup.
The Marlins lineup has its fair share of notables, Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm Jr. among them, but they still amount to a below-average offense. They're scoring 3.9 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a weak 88 wRC+, .704 OPS, and .302 wOBA.
The Phillies hold the edge in both hitting and pitching. I think Cueto gets touched up early by a red-hot Philadelphia lineup while Aaron Nola keeps the opposition quiet. Look for a decisive victory.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 Run Line (+118) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Angels
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE (-120)
CLE: Lucas Giolito| LAA: Tyler Anderson
We'll move on to Saturday's late game in Anaheim. The wheels have completely fallen off for the Angels this summer, while the Guardians are barely holding on to their playoff hopes. This game carries little relevance in the grand scheme of the 2023 season, but the bets count all the same.
Lucas Giolito gets the nod for Cleveland today. It's been a rocky summer for the struggling right-hander, who will take on his previous team today. He surrendered nine earned runs during his Guardians debut last time out and owns a horrible 8.58 ERA over his last seven starts. Overall, Giolito sports a 4.63 xERA and 4.55 xFIP. That includes a .445 xSLG, 11% barrel rate, and 8.9% walk rate.
It's hard to spin this Angels lineup into a positive these days, but I don't envision Giolito walking away from this game unscathed. Los Angeles is scoring a middling 4.3 runs per game since the All-Star break, including a .724 OPS. These numbers don't excite, but if it's any consolation, Shohei Ohtani is expected to be back in the lineup on Sunday. He and any one of Brandon Drury, Mike Moustakas, and Logan O'Hoppe can ignite this offense.
Tyler Anderson is another mediocre pitcher on the bump today. Through 25 outings, he carries a weak 5.09 xERA and 5.55 xFIP. He's surrendered a .433 xSLG, .349 xwOBA, and .263 xBA. Anderson looks nothing like his 2022 self in terms of performance, and approaching 34 years old, this might just be all that we can expect from him at this point.
The Guardians have been severely depleted recently and have ranked among baseball's weakest second-hand offenses. They recently benefitted from Josh Naylor returning to the lineup. Between him and Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and others, this is enough firepower to make Tyler Anderson's day difficult.
I'm not confident in either offense in this game, but I am confident that neither pitcher can keep this game quiet. This showdown will be higher scoring than the 8.5-run total suggests.
Pick: Over 8.5 Run Total (-122) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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