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Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/2/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
The dust has settled from the trade deadline and now we enter the final two months of the season. Some teams like the Mets sold off assets after failing to meet lofty preseason expectations while others were surprise buyers at the deadline (Baltimore and Miami for example). We should see some players debut with their new teams today so keep that in mind as lineups will look a little different and going forward we are going to have to judge some teams according to their most recent sample sizes instead of using season-long or even last-30-day data.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, August 2, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-122)
PHI: Zack Wheeler | MIA: Braxton Garrett
I'm going to do two things today that I probably wouldn't have done back in April or May - I am going to bet an under 7.5 total and an over 10 total. If you're not familiar with MLB totals, they typically fall between 8-9.5 runs on a nightly basis and anything over or under that is quite a bit higher or lower than normal. We occasionally get a 7-run total in the absolute best pitchers' duels and we see 10+ run totals in Cincinnati and Coors, especially during the warm weather.
I think we have the formula for an under here, however, even if we don't have superstar aces on the mound. Zack Wheeler is in his best form of the season and Miami has struggled to just 4.26 runs per game over the last month. Yes, they brought Jake Burger and Josh Bell yesterday, but both guys are boom/bust hitters who are also very K-prone (hit that Wheeler K prop over 6.5 strikeouts while you're at it.)
Zack Wheeler's 7th and 8th Ks.
Thru 5 pic.twitter.com/9MPpbRlvsI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 29, 2023
On the other side, Braxton Garrett is a pretty darn good pitcher and after scuffling a bit earlier in July, he rebounded nicely in his last start against the Tigers, firing five innings of shutout baseball with six strikeouts. The Phillies have also been pretty lethargic on offense, scoring just 4.17 runs over the last month.
Two slumping offenses and two good pitchers who are in good form - and when you add in two competent bullpens, I think we see this one finish up well under eight runs. The Phillies scratched out three runs in the ninth inning last night to win 3-1, but these teams combined for just one run across eight and a half innings before that.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 runs (-122) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Cubs
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: CHI (-142)
CIN: Brandon Williamson | CHC: Drew Smyly
Perhaps recency bias is in full effect here, but we saw these teams combine for 29 runs last night as the Cubs pummeled the Reds 20-9 in one of the highest-scoring games of the season. Poor Ben Lively gave up 13 earned runs and saw his ERA go from 3.7 to 5.2 in a hurry and the Reds used three other relievers before sending catcher Luke Maille out in the ninth inning.
The Cubs are just red hot right now and Cody Bellinger is just smashing baseballs like there is no tomorrow. He was one of six Cubs to homer while Dansby Swanson hit two more dingers to stay hot, too.
Cody Bellinger broke the scoreboard 😳 pic.twitter.com/acQNEQbB0P
— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) August 2, 2023
I am not sure why we wouldn't like these offenses again today. The Reds send Brandon Williamson and his 5.26 SIERA to the mound while the Cubs are rolling with Drew Smyly, the veteran who can occasionally rip off a good start but who has been largely average for most of the season.
The Reds offense has cooled off a bit since the break, but is still full of formidable young hitters and they should be able to get something going against Smyly. The Cubs could score 10 runs by themselves here with the way they are raking and how bad Williamson and the Cincy bullpen have been. I think an over here feels pretty safe, especially with the wind at Wrigley blowing gently out to left-center (as of now).
Pick: OVER 10 runs (-118) DraftKings Sportsbook
BONUS UNDERDOG BET: Washington Nationals (+110) at home with MacKenzie Gore on the bump!
Good luck, RotoBallers! Let's hit some bets and make some money tonight! Thanks for reading and following along all season!
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