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Simply put, the quality of baseball this past week has been off the charts. Between Astros/Yankees, Dodgers/Braves, Guardians/Twins, Phillies/Padres, and Giants/Braves, there were plenty of extremely exciting matchups between playoff contenders, and we were not disappointed. This is part of what makes baseball great; let's hope for more of that ahead.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, June 28th, 2022, for the 16-game 6:40 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With a full slate of games, including a double-header between the Guardians and Twins, there are plenty of intriguing value opportunities out there. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL -156
MIA: Braxton Garrett | STL: Dakota Hudson
With an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young pitchers and exciting young talent, the Marlins are an extremely fun team to watch. Thus, when they were aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of outfielders Jorge Solar and Avisail Garcia, it was an encouraging sign that they were closer to turning those style points into victories at the MLB level. So far, that has not happened, but there is a reason for hope.
See, entering Monday, Miami had a 33-38 record, but thanks to their positive run differential, they had a 37-34 expected record. In other words, they aren't your classic "losing team", and the results should show eventually, starting today. Although Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson has a strong 3.72 ERA, he has the worst K-BB (1.9%) among all qualified starters, as well as the second-worst skill interactive ERA (5.13 SIERA). With these being arguably the top-two indicators of future performance, this is a massive concern; he's walking a fine line, and eventually, that will likely come back to bite him.
What better chance for that to happen than against the offense with the sixth-best weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+)? If so, Miami should be in good shape here. Starter Braxton Garrett may not be a household name, but there is a lot to be intrigued about with the young lefty. In four starts this season, the 24-year-old has a 3.97 SIERA and 29% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%), and there are reasons to believe that success can continue. After some struggles last year, we have seen notable changes with the former first-round pick's pitch mix so far:
Garrett's curveball was a notable issue for him last season, while throwing his best pitch, his slider, 1.5 times more is always a good thing. There's more here though. His sinker features much more horizontal and vertical movement than last year, his fastball has much more horizontal movement, and his slider has been re-worked to be a true sweeper. Add in an uptick in velocity as well, and it's easy to buy into Garrett continuing to find success moving forward as someone who pounds the zone and gets called strikes with ease, as well as enough whiffs along the way. Add in Miami's advantage in bullpen SIERA over St.Louis, and it's pretty clear they have the notable pitching advantage here.
When that's the case for a team priced as a large underdog, why not take a shot? I think there's more than a reasonable chance that Miami wins this game outright, but the betting markets would indicate they have a limited shot here. Take your chances, and hopefully, we'll be celebrating in the Magic City.
Pick: Miami ML (+142), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Cubs
O/U: N/A | Moneyline: CHC -112
CIN: Luis Castillo | CHC: Keegan Thompson
Well, I think it's safe to say that this isn't exactly a preview of the NLCS. Right now, both of these teams, who have the exact same run differential (minus-77), are certainly in a rebuilding phase and will likely be looking to trade their top players at the trade deadline.
One of those players? Reds starter Luis Castillo. With a career 3.84 SIERA, the 29-year-old has more than established himself up to this point, combining his ability to induce ground balls (career 54.9% GB) with plenty of whiffs (career 13.9% swinging-strike rate). However, after being delayed with a shoulder injury, the right-hander has struggled upon returning. Now he has turned a corner.
After some issues in his first two starts, Castillo has sorted things out, posting a 3.68 SIERA in his past seven starts. The most encouraging sign is the return of his velocity. Although he sat a bit lower in his last start, he had averaged over 97 MPH with both his fastball and sinker in the two starts previously, giving both a four-seamer that he can use as his main put-away pitch, as well as a devastating power sinker that induces an exceptional amount of ground balls. Add it all together, and you can get the type of pitcher that can still easily take over a game, which can happen against a Cubs offense that ranks below-average by all notable metrics.
Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has shown flashes as of late, but projections (4.59 projected ERA by Fangraphs Depth Charts projections) haven't completely bought in, and we're dealing with a small sample size. Regardless, it's nearly impossible to argue that the Reds have the clear pitching edge here, while these two teams are roughly identical in terms of talent and performance. Yet this is essentially an even-priced game, indicating that either of those two above statements isn't being recognized. Let's change that here.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (+102), WynnBet Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Royals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -141
TEX: Jon Gray | KC: Jonathan Heasley
They're not a team that often finds themselves in the spotlight, but the Rangers appear to have a very bright future ahead. After an aggressive offseason, it's finally paying dividends via a winning record since the beginning of May, and they still have a very deep farm system filled with prospects ready to make an impact soon. For now, they'll continue to keep things going in Kansas City, and are in a great position to do so here.
Most of the Rangers' offseason acquisitions were made to bolster their lineup, but their best addition may actually be starting pitcher Jon Gray. Signed to a four-year contract, he has impressed tremendously with a 3.72 SIERA and 16.9% K-BB in 12 starts this season and has been particularly productive (3.28 SIERA, 21.1% K-BB), which also correlates well with a velocity uptick. Now fully healthy after a previous injured list stint, he's more than justifying Texas' faith in him, and he should keep that going against a Royals offense that is scoring the fourth-fewest runs per game this season.
Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense, which is tied for seventh in wRC+ over the past 30 days, has finally lived up to expectations as well. In Royals starter Jonathan Heasley, they'll face a pitcher who has been below-replacement level, has just a 5.6% K-BB, as well as a 5.20 SIERA. Add in the fact that Kansas City has by the worst-performing bullpen in terms of SIERA, and Texas is more than likely to keep the bats rolling here.
From an offensive standpoint, this isn't remotely close, while the pitching advantage is also lopsided in the Rangers' favor. The price is notable, but it still doesn't quite account for the great likelihood Texas comes out on top here. Heck, the run line is intriguing here as well, but we'll play it safe with the moneyline here.
Pick: Texas ML (-141), WynnBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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