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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/18/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, May 16, 2022, for the 10-game 6:10 PM Eastern slate.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 12-22-2 overall on the season, down 3.98 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black. Monday was tough going 0-3 and losing 1.5 units and then yesterday we went 0-1-1. Trying to bounce back today!
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TOR -215
SEA: Marco Gonzales | TOR: Kevin Gausman
I have been wrong on this series twice, going with Seattle the last two games and losing those two games. I have to come back and hope the third time is the charm!
Marco Gonzales is on the mound for Seattle. He has the second-highest xFIP on the slate at 4.83. He is allowing 2.25 HR/9 (the highest of his career) and has a K-BB% of just 6.1% with the lowest strikeout rate (15.0%) of his career so far. He also is allowing a hard-hit rate of 41.4%.
It is difficult for me to see a scenario where Toronto does not put up many runs in this game. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette all hit lefties well and now they are facing a weak lefty.
On the other side, Kevin Gausman is pitching well even in the AL East, something I was skeptical of before the season started. He has allowed zero home runs and has an xFIP of 2.10.
Seattle and Toronto have middle-of-the-road bullpens -- Seattle's bullpen ERA is 3.80 while Toronto's is 3.96.
I am not going to pick Seattle to win this game, as I did the last two games. Instead, I am going to go with the over. I see a lot of runs from Toronto, and if this game becomes out of hand, they will go with the weaker members in their bullpen and Seattle might put up a couple of runs against them. This line started out at 8.5 runs, it is down half a run, and there are plus odds to the over. It is worth taking a stab at it.
Picks: OVER 8 runs (+100), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHC -145
PIT: Roansy Contreras (Maybe) | CHC: Drew Smyly
There is no official word yet but the word on the street is that Roansy Contreras is going to get called up from Triple-A and make his 2022 starting pitching debut for the Pirates in Wrigley Field tonight. Mitch Keller is out of the rotation and Contreras is scheduled to pitch today. Contreras made three bullpen appearances earlier this season for Pittsburgh, going 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 2.94 xFIP. He also had a 32.3% strikeout percentage in that sample size.
For Chicago, Drew Smyly gets the start. Smyly is 1-4 with a 3.64 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, and a strikeout rate of just 16.7%. Smyly had a 37.8% strikeout rate in limited innings in 2020. Since then, his strikeouts have dropped off. His 3.76 xFIP is his lowest since 2020 and if you omit that 26.2 inning sample size in 2020, it's really his best xFIP in a season since 2015. That said, he has allowed 1.52 HR/9, so home runs are still an Achilles heel for Smyly.
Pittsburgh has the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in the league at 4.28. Chicago's is fifth-best at 3.18. Offensively, Chicago has scored the 18th-most runs in the league while Pittsburgh has scored the 29th-most runs in the league.
It makes sense that the Cubs are favored. They have the better lineup, the better bullpen, and have outscored the Pirates 16-0 in the last two games. That said, I think the Pirates have better odds than the implied 41% chance of winning and might be motivated if Contreras does join them tonight.
Pick: Pittsburgh Moneyline (+142), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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