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Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Wednesday and this article will focus on the eight-game slate that starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, April 27, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 6-12 overall on the season, down 1.736 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. We will try to bounce back tonight! I am not going to do anything crazy to win it back, just stick with the process and hope it works out. One day at a time.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.0 | Moneyline: ATL -196
CHC: Mark Leiter Jr. | ATL: Charlie Morton
This is a game in which I am leaning into the speculation that major league baseball is messing with the ball as we are seeing fewer home runs and scoring than anticipated.
Mark Leiter Jr. has a career of 4.40 xFIP while Charlie Morton's career xFIP is 3.78. Right now, both guys are not pitching all that well as Leiter's xFIP so far is 4.85 while Morton's is 4.82.
Offensively, Atlanta is No. 14 in runs scored, No. 16 in OBP, but is No. 1 in ISO. Chicago is No. 3 in runs scored, No. 1 in OBP, and No. 11 in ISO. To compare and contrast these teams, Atlanta is inconsistent with getting on base but has the power to do damage to a bad pitcher. Chicago on the other hand has consistently scored runs but they are doing so without relying solely on power but also on a team effort.
With bullpens, Chicago has the No. 4 bullpen ERA thus far this year (2.47). Atlanta's bullpen ERA is No. 25 with a 4.19 ERA.
Even with all of these pieces of information, I am leaning on the under here. MLB scoring has been down, we have seen balls just die at the warning tracks in various games this year. Mark Leiter does have the making of being someone you can score on (Morton is as well as he is in his latter years), but until I see some differences with the ball, I am going under. If Leiter can keep the damage done to him minimized, he is backed by a strong bullpen.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA -127
MIA: Pablo Lopez | WAS: Erick Fedde
I could just open this sentence with "It's Pablo Lopez vs. Erick Fedde" and that should be enough to warrant a bet for Miami. I am surprised that the number for Miami was not as strong as some of the other games.
Pablo Lopez is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA, 2.67 xFIP, and K-BB% of 21.9%. Washington is No. 17 in runs scored, No. 22 in OBP, No. 27 in SLG, and No. 27 in ISO. This is not an offense that was built to score a lot already and now they face one of the best pitchers in the game.
Erick Fedde is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, and a K-BB% of 14.5%. Miami is No. 19 in runs scored, No. 7 in OBP, No. 13 in SLG, and No. 14 in ISO. Another way to think about Miami is that their offense is average. Fortunately for bats in the lineups, being average is an OK spot to be in vs. Fedde because he can make you look above average with how much hard contact he gives up (40.6% hard-hit rate, 1.56 HR/9 career average).
Miami also has a slight edge with their bullpens as Miami's bullpen ERA is 3.32 while Washington's is 3.94. As far as rankings go, Miami is No. 13 while Washington is No. 21. They are closer in raw numbers than the eight spots would make one believe.
Miami to win the game is the pick due to their advantages in starting pitching, batting, and bullpens. This line probably could have been more juiced and am happy to get at -127.
Pick: Miami Moneyline (-127), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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