Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 13? (2025)

June 21, 2025

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 13 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you avoid these popular names?

Welcome back to the week 13 edition of our Buyer Beware waiver wire series. This is where we analyze some of the hot names of the week and look for flaws.

After a run of Top 25-type prospects for a couple of weeks in a row, we have a slightly less-hyped group this time. We examine a solid rookie third baseman, a major power bat returning to Coors, and a new closer spec play.

Rostership rates are taken from Yahoo! Public Leagues entering play Friday. Should you add these players where available? Let’s get to the names and find out.

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Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
23% rostered

Following a miserable start to the season, Toglia was sent to Triple-A for a couple of weeks to reset. He was recalled Monday and homered three times in his first three games back.

Toglia has huge power. That will be his carrying tool if he succeeds in the majors. For example, last season he homered 25 times in 116 games and posted a 17.3% barrel rate, which ranked fifth in the majors. Heck, your author had him pegged as a potential first base sleeper for 2025.

However, like many power hitters, Toglia’s kryptonite is actually making contact with the ball in the first place. During his mini-breakout last season, he hit just .218 and struck out 32% of the time. He earned these marks by whiffing at an untenable rate (15% SwStr%).

These contact problems got even worse this year, as Toglia stumbled to a .194 average and 39% strikeout rate through May. The swinging strikes have been even worse (16.5%), and over his career, we have seen big swings in his production based on his whiff rates:

It’s been a very small sample since Toglia returned from his Triple-A reset. While his contact issues appear slightly improved, we have seen short stretches like this before and really can’t take much from three games.

The question is whether we believe that Toglia can improve the batting average enough to be usable in fantasy. While possible, we cannot point to much support for that in the skills. His 78% zone contact rate is even worse than last season, and both it and his 65% overall contact are among the worst marks in the majors.

The projections are also dubious, as the systems on FanGraphs all point to a rest-of-season wRC+ between 85 and 89, though that could come with 11 or 12 homers.

Finally, there are playing time questions. If he struggles again, do the Rockies send Toglia back to Triple-A? Though he’s a switch hitter, Toglia could be subject to platoon risk given he has been slightly better against righties (79 wRC+) than lefties (70) in his career. That’s to say nothing of the wretched team context.

There is huge power potential with Toglia but also loads of risk. First baseman and outfielder have been two of the deeper positions this season, so hopefully you aren’t tempted to spend much FAAB on the Rockies youngster.

For example, Nick Kurtz is just 41% rostered and we much prefer him to Toglia.

Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals

8% rostered

The Nationals have been reeling in recent weeks, which has led to frustrated quotes from the manager blaming the players. The vibes are very bad.

House, the team’s first-round pick in 2021, was called up earlier this week to provide a spark. He is among the organization’s best position prospects, but a good deal of his real-life value comes from his exceptional defense at the hot corner.

House has plus raw power (60/65 grade), but there is little speed, and he is held back by his approach. Although he hit 19 home runs in the Minors in 2024, he batted just .241 with a 26.4% strikeout rate. He generally has not walked often.

The problems stem from his tendency to chase, especially secondary pitches. Last season House swung outside the zone nearly 40% of the time, a Javy Baezesque rate. He improved it down to 33% this season—still high—and smacked 13 homers in just 65 games with a .305 average in Triple-A (129 wRC+).

So far in the majors House has done fine in a very small sample, hitting .267 over 17 plate appearances. He has chased only 24% of the time. Then again, his first series in the majors was against Rockies pitching.

House hit the ball hard in the Minors, posting a 10.4% barrel and a 46% hard-hit rate in Triple-A. His 108.8 EV90 was also well above average. Although the resulting 25% HR/FB% seems really high, he did start to pull the ball more this year, which could boost his game power.

Projections are not overly bullish, however, with ATC pegging House for a .230 average and 20 homers in a full season. None of the public projections on FanGraphs see him hitting .240 or striking out less than 27% of the time.

Although he’s athletic on defense, House will provide almost no speed. He had attempted just two stolen bases in his first 69 games between Triple-A and the majors. Not all that nice!

For fantasy managers needing power, there is some draw to the mystery box element of House. But the Nats’ home park rates just okay for power, the offense is fairly middling, and he likely only helps in two categories (HR and RBI). He does not walk enough to matter for points leagues.

We would only bid a minimal amount for House in the event we needed a corner infielder.

Orion Kerkering, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

21% rostered

Kerkering has been a big reliever watchlist name for almost two years. His fastball velocity and 80-grade slider had prospect and Phillies writers identifying him as a potential “closer of the future” even before last season.

Kerkering’s performance in 2024 did little to slow down the hype train. He pitched to a 2.29 ERA (2.42 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 22.2% K-BB%. His swinging strike rate, however, was just 11.4%, which implies a lower strikeout rate than the 29% he posted. He did not have a save.

This season, Kerkering has continued to pitch to good results (2.37 ERA), operating as a medium-high leverage arm, as manager Rob Thomson shuffled between Jordan Romano, Jose Alvarado, and Matt Strahm as ninth-inning options.

Then Kerkering nabbed his first save on Monday. Strahm, a lefty, got his fourth save Wednesday, and then Philly went back to Kerkering for his second on Thursday.

Fantasy folks needing saves will likely pursue Kerkering this weekend, but there are reasons to proceed with caution.

The first problem is that Kerkering’s skills have regressed. His strikeout rate has dipped down to 22%, similar to what his former swinging strike rate implied it should be.

The famous sweeper is just not dominating as it once did. He throws it more than half the time but batters are swinging and missing far less:

The sweeper has lost 2” of horizontal break compared to last season and is dropping 1.4” less on average. Despite an uptick in sinker whiffs, the high sweeper usage means he has lost over 3% on his overall whiff rate. The resulting 9.7% swinging strike rate is underwhelming for a starter, let alone a would-be closer.

The other problem is a lack of control. Kerkering’s prospect command was a question (30/35 grade) but he had largely managed to avoid free passes, including a 6.6% walk rate last season. That’s excellent for a reliever.

Now? It has doubled to 13.3 percent, which is too high for any pitcher. Add in the lower strikeout rate and Kerkering’s resulting 8.6% K-BB% ranks 150th out of 181 qualified relievers. That’s how you get a 1.36 WHIP despite limiting hits fairly well.

Indeed, Kerkering has continued to suppress hard contact, allowing just a 6% barrel and 84.4 MPH average exit velocity. But batters are finding it easier to loft the ball against him.

His grounder rate is down and balls in the air are up by 10.5%. The average launch angle against is way up, from 5.4 to 16 degrees. This hasn’t translated into big home runs—he’s only allowed two in 30 innings—but it is a concern in light of more walks and fewer punchouts.

The final issue for Kerkering is his manager. Rob Thomson once infamously coined the term “floating closer” to explain his ninth-inning approach. Last season no Phillies reliever exceeded 13 saves.

Jordan Romano has been quite bad but Matt Strahm has shown the best skills in this bullpen (3.06 SIERA to Kerkering’s 4.35). Although Strahm is a lefty, we should expect Thomson to continue mixing and matching based on matchups.

Kerkering will garner some saves, but they may only come to fruition in fits and starts. His skills also present some risk. We would add him if desperate for saves, but even then only for a few FAAB bucks.

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