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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 7 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 7 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We have a decent sample of six weeks in the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. Injuries have taken a toll on the wide receiver and cornerback positions. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 7 sorted alphabetically. The Bills and Ravens have a bye week during Week 7. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (bold) or injured player (orange text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Green Bay Packers.
The visual below shows offenses from the Houston Texans to the New England Patriots.
The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints to the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 7 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 7 WR/CB Matchups
Week 7 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Chris Olave vs. Nahshon Wright
Rashid Shaheed vs. Kyler Gordon
The usage has been elite for Olave, ranking first in expected fantasy points per game (20), ahead of Davante Adams, Drake London, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, and Mike Evans among receivers with a 10 percent route share and two games played. Besides Jerry Jeudy, Olave has been the second-biggest underperformer in fantasy points over expected (-7) per game.
The Saints face the Bears' pass defense that uses man coverage at the ninth-highest rate while allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback. They specifically love to deploy Cover 1 (No. 13) and Cover 2 Man (No. 1). Plus, the Bears have been beaten over the top, allowing the most fantasy points per dropback against single-high coverage.
Olave garners a team-high 34 percent target per route rate with Shaheed at 30 percent when facing man coverage. Shaheed leads the team with 2.50 yards per route compared to Olave at 1.68 against man coverage. They both earn a high rate of targets against Cover 1, including a 36 percent target rate for Olave and 38 percent for Shaheed. Shaheed possesses the speed to beat single-high coverages and Cover 1, evidenced by his 3.29 yards per route compared to Olave at 1.69 versus Cover 1.
Olave projects to face Nahshon Wright, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per route. Meanwhile, Shaheed faces Kyler Gordon, who allows the third-most fantasy points per route. However, Gordon only played one game in 2025 because of injuries.
The matchup against the Saints and Bears remains a sneaky good one, projecting for the fourth or fifth-highest over/under at 47 to 47.5 points. We'll want a piece of this game, especially via the Saints' pass catchers, since they've been passing at the fourth-highest rate over expected.
Jaylen Waddle vs. Denzel Ward
Waddle has been the focal point of the Dolphins' offense without Tyreek Hill, especially over the past two weeks. He leads the Dolphins with a 27 percent target share and 53 percent air yards share in Weeks 5-6. For context, De'Von Achane garners the second-highest target share (20 percent) among their primary pass catchers over the past two weeks.
In Weeks 1-4, Waddle garnered a 19 percent target share and 22 percent air yards share, showing he received more opportunities, especially downfield without Hill. That's evident in Waddle's Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR), which combines target and air yards share.
Waddle faces up against the Browns, who deploy a man-heavy defense, ranking third in man coverage. Meanwhile, the Browns allow the 13th-most fantasy points per dropback when using man coverage. Though Waddle has been more productive in yards per route run against zone (2.63) compared to man (2.13), he consistently earns targets at a high rate versus man coverage.
The Browns' defense is projected to be more of a pass-funnel one, as they allow the lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. That leads to opposing offenses passing at the 11th-highest rate against the Browns, compared to what is expected. Meanwhile, Denzel Ward allows the 28th-most fantasy points per route run, yet allows the 31st-fewest yards per route.
Trust the volume for Waddle, though Ward can present a tougher matchup than the numbers suggest.
Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Cam Hart
Tyler Warren has been the Colts' best pass catcher through the first six weeks. However, Pittman remains close behind Warren in fantasy points and usage via expected fantasy points. Meanwhile, Josh Downs wishes to run more routes as a per-route target earner.
Pittman faces the Chargers' pass defense, using zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate while allowing the 24th-most fantasy points per dropback. The Chargers specifically prefer to use Cover 3 (No. 6) and Cover 4 (No. 3). Pittman (1.86), Warren (2.87), and Downs (1.82) have been relatively productive from a yards per route run standpoint against zone coverage.
Since the Chargers' pass defense prefers using a zone-heavy scheme, this matchup might bode well for Warren and Downs. That's evident in Warren garnering a 37 percent target rate and 3.95 yards per route run against Cover 3 and 4. Meanwhile, Downs boasts a 31 percent target rate and 2.31 yards per route run. Pittman averages a 16 percent target rate and 1.43 yards per route run against Cover 3 and 4.
Pittman projects to face Cam Hart, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per dropback and the second-most yards per route run. Hart allows the 30th-highest passer rating allowed, leading to being one of the worst Chargers' cornerbacks. Pittman should be able to take advantage of the Week 7 WR/CB matchup.
Week 7 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Jerry Jeudy vs. Rasul Douglas
Since Dillon Gabriel became the Browns' starting quarterback over the past two games, the tight ends have been the primary options. David Njoku (18 percent) and Harold Fannin Jr. (17 percent) have accounted for 35 percent of the team's target share in Weeks 5-6. Meanwhile, Jeudy leads the team with a 22 percent target share over the past two weeks.
Jeudy leads the team in air yards share and first-read target share, typically hinting at better production based on his usage and expected fantasy points. The Browns' passing offense threw deep passes (20+ yards) at the 28th-highest percentage, indicating 5.9 percent of the team's pass attempts went for 20+ yards in Weeks 5-6.
For context, the Browns' pass offense ranked 18th in deep pass percentage (11.6 percent) in Weeks 1-4. Jeudy projects to face Rasul Douglas, allowing the 27th-lowest fantasy points per dropback, making it a below-average matchup. The Dolphins' pass defense uses man coverage at the 14th-highest rate while deploying zone defense at the 19th-highest percentage.
This might be a bit scary because the Dolphins' pass defense allows the second-most fantasy points per dropback while using man coverage. Meanwhile, the Dolphins consistently use two-high looks (No. 5), yet they allow the highest fantasy points per dropback. Jeudy hasn't been productive against man or zone coverages, yet he showed an ability to create separation versus man.
Jeudy garners a 19 percent target per route rate while producing 1.34 yards per route run against two-high looks. Among their healthy pass catchers with 10 or more targets against two high, Fannin leads the team with a 22 percent target rate compared to Njoku at 20 percent. Njoku averages the best yards per route run (1.46) against two high looks among that trio of pass catchers.
Jeudy is a cheaper version of Olave with a downgrade at quarterback. That's especially notable because Gabriel prefers to throw quick passes and averages the second-lowest intended air yards per pass attempt, ahead of Aaro Rodgers. There could be volume, but it might not be pleasant.
Update: Jeudy might face Storm Duck, who expects to return. Duck has been more favorable based on the underlying metrics in 2025.
Matthew Golden vs. Jalen Thompson
Golden has been teasing us in recent weeks, though he continues to rank behind Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft in season-long usage. In Weeks 4 and 6, with a bye in between, Golden garners an 18 percent target share and 30 percent air yards share. He trails Doubs, with a 27 percent target share and 35 percent air yards share in Weeks 4-6.
With significant injuries to several high-end receiver options, Golden might be relied upon by fantasy managers in Week 7. They face the Cardinals' pass defense, which uses zone coverage at the 13th-highest percentage while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Cardinals deploy man coverage at the 20th-highest rate, yet allow the third-most fantasy points per dropback.
Golden has been decent against zone coverage, ranking second on the team with 2.03 yards per route and a 20 percent target rate among their WR/TE. The Cardinals' pass defense will likely game plan to minimize Golden, potentially beating them over the top, and keep the yards underneath. That's especially notable since the Cardinals' pass defense deploys two-high looks at the seventh-highest percentage.
Against two-high looks, Golden (24 percent), Doubs (16 percent), and Kraft (16 percent) lead the team in target per route rate. Meanwhile, Golden produces 3.27 yards per route run, with Doubs at 0.93 and Kraft at 1.78 against two-high looks.
The Packers deploy Golden in the slot and out wide, leading to a tricky matchup against Jalen Thompson. Thompson remains one of the few safeties that has been primarily covering opposing pass catchers in the slot. He allows the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route run and the sixth-fewest yards per route.
The Packers prefer to rely on the run game, ranking 22nd in neutral game script pass rate in 2025. That's further notable because the Packers have been 6.5-point favorites in Week 7, suggesting the passing volume will be limited, as usual. There's hope for Golden, but the breakout game likely won't come in Week 7.
Tee Higgins vs. Joey Porter Jr.
Joe Flacco as the Bengals' quarterback should be a slight uptick in value for their pass catchers. Higgins trails Chase in air yards, first-read target share, and expected fantasy points. That suggests that Higgins might be more of an unreliable WR3 against the Steelers, especially with Joey Porter Jr. back.
The Steelers' pass defense prefers man coverage (No. 5), yet they've allowed the fifth-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Steelers use single-high looks at the second-highest percentage. Interestingly, Higgins has been more productive in yards per route run (2.26) against man coverage, while experiencing a significant dropoff in the underlying metrics compared to zone coverage.
Chase leads the team in target rate (35 percent) and yards per route run (1.70) against single-high coverage. Meanwhile, Higgins garners a 21 percent target rate and 1.54 yards per route run against single high, though it might be unfair to compare with the quarterback issues.
Porter allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per route and the 11th-lowest yards per route run. He ranks 19th in Coverage Grade and 32nd in passer rating allowed among 129 qualified cornerbacks with 10 coverage snaps and five targets. Be cautious with Higgins as one of the Week 7 WR/CB matchups downgrades.
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