RADIO
We are now down to the final four. No more Saturday games, just two games on Championship Sunday in which to win a little lettuce on FanDuel.
The Chiefs will host the Bills in a game in which the status of Patrick Mahomes is still somewhat unknown. I like Chad Henne, but let's just say that if Mahomes plays I like Kansas City's chances to win a whole more. Either way, expect the member of Bills Mafia to be on the edge of their seats. Over on the NFC side, we have the number one-seed Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers hosting Tom Brady and the Bucs. Talk about a made-for-TV special! Mother Nature of course might have her own interest in that game. No snow or high winds expected in the forecast, but temperatures are supposed to be below freezing.
The hype will be about the quarterbacks, but it could be about which defense has the best game and that will need to be weighed when considering our DFS lineups. The truth is we are likely to include players from all four teams in our FanDuel lineups this week.
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NFL DFS Picks - Conference Championship
3:05 PM EST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U)
6:40 PM EST: Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (53.5 O/U)
In this article, I will be providing you with my Championship Sunday slate daily fantasy football lineup picks on FanDuel. Those picks will vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. I will try to give you an option from each game as well. But be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.
FanDuel DFS Quarterbacks
Josh Allen vs. Kansas City ($8,500)
It was the Confucious-like Ric Flair who said "To be the man you gotta beat the man". Well, if Allen is going to be the man, he will have to do so by knocking off the defending champs. And it's cliche, but one way to do it is "not settle for field goals". And Josh Allen's red zone numbers are even better than I suspected:
Josh Allen 2020 Red Zone Stats
- 45 completions, 60% completion rate
- 268 yards, 20 TD, 0 INT
- 23 rushing attempts, 45 yards, 7 TD
- 27 total TD, 313 total yards
For comparison purposes, Patrick Mahomes had 23 red zone passing TDs to go along with his two red zone INTs. Besides Allen compiling better cumulative numbers, he also had a better completion rate. And I'll try not to give you a heart attack, but you might be surprised to find out that there is a very high correlation between red zone success and fantasy scoring.
And given that we can get Allen cheaper than both Mahomes and Rodgers, I'll gladly take the guy who is more likely to run it in for six. Rodgers and Mahomes might be better passers than Allen currently is. But Allen is not far behind and his rushing makes him the more far more valuable fantasy asset.
Aaron Rodgers vs Tampa Bay ($8,700)
Perhaps the Pack should have bypassed a WR and picked Rodgers potential replacement a few years ago! Rodgers is a man on a mission and I'm not sure he's going to let any defense stand in his way, especially one that gave up the 11th most fantasy points to QBs this year.
Rodgers does not bring the same scrambling ability to the table, but he has certainly had an MVP-worthy season through the air this year. Rodgers had 48 TDs to just five INTs this year. That's three touchdowns a game. Yes, last week he only had two touchdowns, but I remind you that was against the Rams, one of if not the stingiest defense in the league. Last week's 296 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns is the approximate floor of what to expect from Rodgers this week. His seasonal average of three touchdowns can be expected and his ceiling is even higher. He is on a mission.
FanDuel DFS Running Backs
Devin Singletary @Kansas City ($5,800)
Devin Singeltary is whole wheat bread. I try to avoid it. I'll take a good rye every time, perhaps a nice sourdough, even a simple ciabatta. But the truth is if I was starving and the only thing available was wheat bread, yes, I'd be scarfing down a whole wheat bread sandwich. Because the options at running back in this game are quite limited. You feel good about anyone in the KC backfield getting meaningful carries? I don't. Suddenly, Singletary looks like a very tasty option.
Zack Moss is done for the year. TJ Yeldon had two rushes (for all of four yards) last week. This backfield is all Singletary's. Unlike any other backfield this weekend, this lead back should get at least 90% of the carries, possibly 100%. And I suspect that the Bills are going to try and keep the high-powered KC offense off the field as much as possible. And the best way to do that is to run the ball. I would not be surprised to see Singletary get close to 20 carries.
And this is a great matchup. The Chiefs are 16th in pass DVOA, but 31st in rush DVOA! They might be the first Superbowl winner to have a rush DVOA that low. Throw in the fact that we can roster Singletary for less than $6K this week and he should definitely help us make some bread!
Other RB options?
If you have the salary space, spend up and grab Aaron Jones for eight grand. But knowing in advance that I won't have the salary space to squeeze in Jones in my primary line-up, I will have to look elsewhere. Unfortunately, as of submission, there was still too much that is unknown about the other backfields. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, I'll likely grab Darrel Williams. But the current situation is clear as mud:
Chiefs’ Clyde Edwards-Helaire limited in practice and another running back sits out https://t.co/I6YRhlbroi
— The Kansas City Star (@KCStar) January 21, 2021
Limited practice=limited suggestions. And the TB situation is not much better. Fournette and Ronald Jones have nearly equal snap counts this year. Even the aforementioned Jones has seen his snap count percentages ebb and flow. Should Green Bay find itself leading by a sizeable margin, I don't think we will see Jones toting the rock much late in the game. The sneaky GPP play might be to punt the second RB slot and pray that a Ke'Shawn Vaughn or Antonio Williams makes a surprise house call.
We will know more on Sunday. But at this moment, I'm basically bypassing the RB position and spending up on my receiving options.
FanDuel DFS Wide Receivers
Davante Adams vs. Tampa Bay ($8,900)
Adams has been matchup-proof all season. I was discussing sandwiches above, but Adams has been the filet mignon of receivers this year. He was not the highest producing fantasy WR this year, but that was because he missed a couple of games that some of his compatriots like Tyreke Hill and Stefon Diggs did not. On a per-game basis, no WR was better this year.
He is of course priced to match that studliness. But he also has the best match-up by far than any other WR playing this weekend. Kansas City, Buffalo, and Green Bay were all within the top five of the stingiest defenses when it came to giving up fantasy points to WRs. Tampa Bay was not only not in the top ten, but they were not even in the top 20! Just ten teams gave up more fantasy points to WRs this year than the Bucs. Adams is a lock at WR.
Mecole Hardman vs. Buffalo ($5,300)
Let me count. One, two, three....nine, ten, eleven. There are 11 wide receivers more expensive than Mecole Hardman this week. Ya think there might be some profit opportunity here perhaps? I am positive there is some doubting Thomas out there who thinks that Hardman ever gets the ball. Really? Yes, we know Hill is the clear number one receiver on the Chiefs. But you know which KC WR had the second most targets this year? Hardman. Do you know which WR had the second-most receiving yards? Hardman. Second most WR touchdowns behind Hill? Hardman. Second highest yards per catch? Wait for it....that's right, Hardman again.
Do I think Hardman is going to outproduce WR1s like Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans? Heck no. But he's a whole lot cheaper. And do I think Hardman can outproduce some of the slightly more expensive options like teammate Sammy Watkins and the absurdly priced Allen Lazard? Yes. Yes, I do.
FanDuel DFS Tight Ends
Travis Kelce vs Buffalo ($8,600)
Yes, it's the obvious play. But that doesn't mean it is the wrong one. In fact, I feel stupid telling you all the reasons why Kelce is a great play. I think we all know them. Ok, fine, perhaps you didn't know the Buffalo gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs this year. But did you really need another reason to play Kelce? Let's move on, shall we?
Rob Gronkowski @ Green Bay ($5,200)
Gronk has one more catch during these playoffs than Darren Waller, George Kittle, and T.J Hockenson combined. I'll remind you that the teams of those three are not in the playoffs. However, Gronk does still have six targets the last couple of weeks, including a pass in the endzone that barely went of his fingertips. Recall, that from week 6 to week 16, he had seven touchdowns.
Given the natural connection that Gronk has with Brady, I think it's fair to say that Gronk is due. Of all the non-Kelce TEs left in the playoffs, you are just hoping for a touchdown. I'll take the one with 86 of them, please.
FanDuel DFS Defense/Special Teams
Can we agree that all four of these offenses are pretty good? There is no such thing as a good DST play this week. Most would usually spend down in that situation. At least those who are prudent would. But I'm not a prude! I live for the thrill; nothing ventured, nothing gained, or YOLO for younger folks. So I'm gonna spend up and grab Green Bay ($4400). Yet this is not some reckless whim. If I had to bet on one offense to do poorly, it would be one team that didn't win its division. Yes, a team from Florida, playing in freezing Green Bay, with a California boy behind center whom I know some of you forgot that he has trouble counting to four...
Tom Brady didn’t know he’d just thrown a game-ending incompletion on fourth down ??♂️ pic.twitter.com/4Kzv8dykGd
— Billy Heyen (@BillyHeyen) October 9, 2020
Okay, that was a cheap shot. But the point is of the four teams playing Sunday, the Bucs are the one whose offense I trust the least. Therefore, I'm taking the opposing defense.
Well, that's it, everyone! Good luck, RotoBallers, in your contests and I hope this slate turns out to be a profitable one for you!
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