Week 3 is in the books, and we now have three data points to go off amidst our speculation and preconceived notions. Some teams are sitting pretty at 3-0 and enter the first wave of Bye Week Blues without desperation. Some have started 0-3, and need to open themselves up to risk taking behavior. This isn't to say throw out the playbook and drop your studs, but you can't be picky on the waiver wire if you need a spark.

Going into Week 4, we don't find many new guys to focus on, but some players are making a case that they are not mere flashes in the pan. Others have been thrust into some relevancy due to injury, though most of the injuries that ailed our studs in Week 3 aren't season long concerns.

Let’s look at those price tags, which will be based on a $100 FAAB budget. I’ll explore the names that intrigue me which I feel warrant some context.

 

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Maybe you've lost Ben Roethlisberger for several weeks, perhaps you're still waiting on Drew Brees news, or you've got Tom Brady/Marcus Mariota on a bye.

 

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 15

43% owned in Fleaflicker

Taylor was written up here last week, and his ownership only bumped up from 23% to 43%. His strong Week 3 performance against the Dolphins should tilt that figure over the 50% mark for sure. Miami was a strong defense coming into 2015, with many viewing them as a "set it and forget it" type for the first several weeks of the year. It would appear the Dolphins are in total disarray though, but all the same, Taylor had to be good enough to take advantage. This game looked like a lot of greatness from Tyrod, as well as horror from Miami. Taylor was picking the secondary apart, and he didn't lose a step even when Sammy Watkins left the game. He is in for some regression, as Taylor is completing 74.4% of his passes while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, which is pretty spectacular, but very doubtful to hold steady all year long. Still, he looks very comfortable back there, and he hasn't even had to break the pocket and scramble to reach value, which many (myself included) thought would have to be the case. He looks the part. Taylor gets the Giants and Titans in the coming weeks,  which certainly doesn't scare me away.

 

Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) – FAAB Bid: $5 - 8

56% owned in Fleaflicker

Joe Flacco had another good performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, who were playing Flacco well until the second half fireworks really went off between the two teams. Flacco drew the strongest defense in the NFL in Week 1 (the Broncos) and this may have set the tone for some people to be bearish on Flacco. Yes, he isn’t great, but he can pull it together and clearly he is airing it out. The Ravens rushing attack not being too strong only helps Flacco's case fantasy-wise. This is still more about his upcoming schedule as I said last week. Flacco now gets to tee off against Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and San Francisco. One "Joe Flacco" over here please.

 

Others To Note:

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) – 60% owned

Dalton has gone off in his first three games, but I'm still put off by his upcoming schedule: vs. KC, vs. SEA, @BUF. That’s not preferable, though he is clearly showing some growth. I prefer Flacco in a priority vacuum, but the price is about the same. FAAB Bid: $8 - 12

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) – 35% owned

Carr has had a strong start to 2015, and while the Cleveland Browns' defense isn't imposing, he still showed that can make the throws. Sprinkling the ball around to all of his receivers, he proved to a degree that this isn't all smoke and mirrors. He's good for a Week 4 showdown with the hapless Chicago defense, but Weeks 5 (DEN) and 6 (Bye) will have you wanting out. FAAB Bid: $5 - 8

 

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Chris Johnson (ARI, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12

52% owned in Fleaflicker

Chris Johnson wasn't exactly "CJ2K" out there, but he definitely didn't look like the running joke that he had been pegged as in recent times. The game against the 49ers was a rout, but all the same Chris Johnson was hitting the holes and showing good acceleration. 22 rushes were good for 110 yards and two touchdowns, adding on a 40 yard reception. Now Andre Ellington will be coming back, and David Johnson is absolutely not going to go away, but Bruce Arians has to respect the effort that Chris Johnson put forth. If you are in need of running back help, Chris Johnson won't put up huge numbers each week, as the three of them will cut into each other's production, though you could do a lot worse.

 

Karlos Williams (BUF, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12 / McCoy Owner: $15 - 18

31% owned in Fleaflicker

Karlos Williams is more than just a guy who benefits from LeSean McCoy dealing with a nagging hamstring injury which may sideline him for a little. Reports are breaking as this is being written that McCoy is unlikely to play this week, with Adam Schefter saying that Williams' good play may make the decision easier to rest McCoy. Williams has scored in each of Buffalo's first three games, and while some might see that as being touchdown dependent (which is valid), it also speaks to his usage. He won't average 7.8 yards per carry all year, but he a strong runner who can pound the ball in between the tackles, but isn't lost in open space. McCoy owners will want to be sure they get Williams, but he is also a very good plug'n'play type.

 

Chris Thompson (WSH, RB) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 5

0% owned in Fleaflicker

Chris Thompson is pretty clearly entrenched in the passing back role, the old Roy Helu Jr. spot for Washington. He won't see much usage in games where Washington isn't trailing, though that is up to you and how much you believe the Redskins will be playing from behind. That is tied entirely to how you value Thompson. I strongly believe that Thompson will definitely get his opportunities throughout the year to be useful in PPR leagues. He could be your garbage time hero. In standard leagues you should probably look elsewhere, but don't overlook Thompson if you're in deeper PPR leagues and need some RB help.

 

Others To Note:

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - 4% owned

With Marshawn Lynch out, Thomas Rawls was "the guy" for Seattle over the veteran Fred Jackson. Rawls also happened to look very good, though Chicago may have allowed me to get 100 yards, it was still impressive. Rawls finished with 16 carries for 104 yards. Look into him. FAAB Bid: $3 - 5 / Lynch Owner: $8 - 10

Antonio Andrews (RB, TEN) - 5% owned

Andrews got 49 yards on 12 carries and punched in a touchdown. He was hurt as the year started, but he clearly jumped over Terrance West with this showing for those short yardage plays, and even more than that. Bishop Sankey is not going to be a bellcow for Tennessee, there is a place for Andrews to produce for the Titans, and therefore there is likely a place for Andrews on your squad in deeper leagues. FAAB Bid: $3 - 5

 

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Rishard Matthews (MIA, WR) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 15

23% owned in Fleaflicker

The Miami Dolphins have a lot of mouths to feed, but three weeks are in the books and it's become very clear that Matthews has leapfrogged Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings for snaps by a wide margin. Matthews' targets over the first three weeks: six, seven, and now ten. Last week I literally said: "He probably won’t ever drop a 25 point performance for you, but it looks as though he can provide a decent floor." Well now I feel a little foolish, as he put up 25.3 points on Fleaflicker. The takeaway from all of this is that he is the guy to own, and while Landry gets the PPR love and short-intermediate routes, Matthews definitely has a big role moving forward for Miami.

 

Rueben Randle (NYG, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 9

46% owned in Fleaflicker

Victor Cruz is reportedly coming back in Week 4, but this shouldn't really eat into Randle's potential. While most of you who watched Thursday Night Football this past week saw a lucky bounce lead to Randle's touchdown, he still put up a line that was good for seventh best for all wide receivers on Fleaflicker (seven catches, 116 yards and a touchdown). Eli Manning and offensive coordinator Bob McAdoo are going to continue to grow in their second year, and Randle figures to be the big receiver in three wide sets. Odell Beckham Jr. is the clear #1, Cruz (when healthy) will operate in the slot, and Randle should see plenty of snaps and red zone looks.

 

Marvin Jones (CIN, WR) – FAAB Bid: $5 - 9

36% owned in Fleaflicker

Marvin Jones will benefit from defenses needing to put emphasis on A.J. Green (even when they can't stop him anyway), and he's looked much better than Mohamed Sanu so far in 2015 (PFF grades Jones as +1.7, while Sanu sits at -1.4). He won't light the world on fire with his year end line, but Jones is a good wide receiver to have if you need to plug someone in. For as much focus Jeremy Hill gets for how bad the Bengals schedule is for rushing, the flipside to this means that there should be plenty of passes that come from Dalton. Connect the dots, get in on the action.

 

Others to note:

Ty Montgomery (GB, WR) – 10% owned

As I'm writing this, Davante Adams just left Monday Night Football with a reaggravation of his ankle injury. Montgomery is the beneficiary here as far as playing time goes. You want any significant piece of the Green Bay offense that you can get. FAAB Bid: $4 - 6

Percy Harvin (BUF, WR) – 58% owned

He's showing that he can stay on the field so far. and if Sammy Watkins isn't 100% that only helps his value. FAAB Bid: $3 - 5

Ted Ginn (CAR, WR) – 7% owned

Boom or bust with some tread still left on the tires. FAAB Bid: $1 - 2

 

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Eric Ebron (DET, TE) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8

48% owned in Fleaflicker

Brandon Pettigrew was out again, and so Ebron played almost every snap for the Lions. Unfortunately, Pettigrew will probably come back soon from his hamstring injury and cut into Ebron's snaps. Ebron goes from being on the field for 90% of plays with Pettigrew out to about 60% with him playing in the limited snap data we have so far. Often split out against a linebacker or safety in space, Ebron has the skills to dominate with his size, but unfortunately drops are still an issue. Still, his ownership tag should be over the halfway mark, he is a true talent and has size that makes him very viable in the red zone. Seattle is not a fun Week 4 matchup though, be aware when bidding.

 

Owen Daniels (DEN, TE) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 5

45% owned in Fleaflicker

Owen Daniels had some owners very hopeful for a bit of a renaissance with Peyton Manning at the helm. No one expected him to be Julius Thomas, but they certainly wanted a piece of the action that is the Denver offense. That first little run where they tried to establish the rushing attack didn't go so hot, and they've since gone back to more of an aerial assault, operating out of the shotgun and pistol formations. This bodes well for Daniels, and many leagues may have seen Daniels get dropped in frustration. Denver also has Oakland coming up in Week 5, which has been a tight end's paradise in 2015 (no don't chase Gary Barnidge).

 

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