RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After our first international break of the season, the EPL returns Saturday and I'm excited for it to be back in my life! Hopefully you are ready too. Games remain more spread out than they have been in the past, which leaves us with some smaller slates where games all kickoff at different times. Saturday's main slate is three games, but you can get up early for the all-day slate if you want a fourth game available. Let's take a look at the main EPL slate this Saturday. Keep reading this breakdown for my DFS soccer picks on RotoBaller and see how to have success on Saturday's slate.
The very large majority of my DFS content will be EPL-related, however, there is more soccer than just what is being played in England. If you want to chop it up with myself and other RotoBaller writers about non-EPL leagues or other sports, consider becoming a premium member and joining our ever-growing community of DFS and fantasy sports enthusiasts! In this article, I will be providing you with my English Premier League daily fantasy soccer lineup picks for FanDuel on 10/17/20 for the slate that locks at 10:00 am ET. Be sure to also check out our other DFS lineup picks for other active sports. You can always find me on Twitter @vdray5 if you have any questions. Good luck, RotoBallers!
EPL DFS Lineup Picks - Overview
Chelsea vs Southampton
Chelsea (-1.0) should have the upper hand in this game. Southampton are coming into this game playing well, though, having won two straight. However, those were both against bottom-half teams. Chelsea will present a more difficult matchup on Saturday. Chelsea have been scoring a good amount of goals this year, and seeing that Southampton already conceded five goals to Tottenham this season, this could be a sneaky place to have a game stack with many people looking for more balance on this slate. The goal total over/under is a nice 3.0.
Manchester City vs Arsenal
This is a big matchup we get here on Matchday 5. A Manchester City (-1.0) side - who is struggling to begin the season - hosts Arsenal who have three wins this year with their one loss being away to Liverpool. City is actually the largest favorite on the slate. It is not easy to figure out what will come of this game, but one thing is for certain. This game has the slate's highest projected score and has the potential to pop off, especially with the rate goals have been scored this season. With many popular names, a high over/under of 3.5, the slate's largest favorite, and two teams that give up a lot of peripherals, this will be the chalk spot of the slate.
Newcastle vs Manchester United
Manchester United (-0.5,-1.0) are favorites even on the road on Saturday. However, they could easily be winless this season if not for a Bruno Fernandes PK they got gifted 10+ minutes after the 90 had expired. In their other two games, they got obliterated by Tottenham 6-1 and lost to Palace by two goals. Newcastle - on the other hand - have started their 2020-21 campaign on the right foot with wins over Burnley and West Ham and a good 1-1 result against Tottenham on top of those wins. While Manchester United could dominate possession, they may struggle to score against Newcastle who had a good home defense last season. Even with a low 2.5 goal total in Vegas right now, there isn't a big reason to shy away from this game. This means that all three games should be on your radar on Saturday with a lineup of balanced exposures looking like a good strategy.
FanDuel DFS Forwards / Midfielders
With four of the traditional Big 6 clubs on a smaller slate like this, there are a significant number of top-tier guys on this slate to sort through. So, let's try to make some sense of it.
Kevin de Bruyne ($23) picked up a minor injury over the break and has been ruled out. Gabriel Jesus ($16) remains sidelined, and Sergio Aguero ($20) is still a longshot to play. This all leaves Riyad Mahrez ($21) and Raheem Sterling ($19) as the top Manchester City attackers to target. Mahrez has had some of his best fantasy games with KDB off the field. He's in a nice spot here. I'm looking past Arsenal's five goals against so far mainly due to the small sample size. Liverpool hung three goals on Arsenal a few weeks ago, and Arsenal have faced low-scoring teams that lack attacking power in their other three games. Arsenal's defense might be improved from the past few seasons, but City at home is a spot even most casual DFS soccer players will know to target. Raheem Sterling got his first goal of the year last game, and you can get him for $2 cheaper than Mahrez. He has the best anytime scoring odds on the slate at -125. The duo have similar floors and ceilings. I do not think it is necessary to go all in on City's attack here though. They have struggled in front of the net in their first three league games, and there's always a chance we are underestimating Arsenal's defense.
If you don't want to pay for either top City guy, Phil Foden ($17) can fit in most lineups but he has not done much this season. Ilkay Gundogan ($8) will likely start for KDB, and he would provide great value on Saturday.
The other place I am looking for top-tier attackers is Chelsea. They're scoring 2.8 goals per game in all competitions this season including four in their last league game against Crystal Palace. I will be headed right back to Timo Werner ($20) against Southampton. It is my hope that people will be crossing him off their lists after seeing his goalless game log. However, a guy who has scored as many goals as Werner has in his career doesn't stay off the scoresheet for long. He also scored for Germany over the break, which will hopefully help him kickstart his first season in England. He's the most likely scorer in this game at +100. I am all over Kai Havertz ($18) as well - probably more than Werner even. He has one goal in league play this year, but he also had a hattrick in an EFL Cup game, and just scored for Germany over the break as well. This can be a deadly duo to have for this cheap against a defense like Southampton's.
There can be value found on Chelsea as well with Tammy Abraham ($14) a strong goal threat at +100 for that price. Christian Pulisic ($16) is back to full fitness according to Frank Lampard, but who knows if he has the fitness to play a full 90 minutes. Hakim Ziyech ($14) is already ready to take the pitch for Chelsea, but he will come off the bench for the time being.
There are a few reasons why you cannot completely cross the Manchester United @ Newcastle game off your list. One reason is Bruno Fernandes ($19). I don't know how many more times I can say how exceptional he's been fantasy-wise and on the field since joining United last season. This price remains too cheap regardless of matchup. Second, United's defense has been atrocious this season. They have given up 11 goals in only three games including two to Brighton and three to Palace. This puts me on some Newcastle attackers - a team who have shown some more scoring pop compared to last season. Callum Wilson ($15) was featured in my last EPL DFS article, and he came through for us with two goals and a 54.3 point game. With four goals on the season, he's the hottest scorer that is getting no recognition. At home against a leaky United backline, don't be afraid to head right back to him. Some of the other Newcastle attackers get very risky and could drop sub-5 point games at any time. But if you're into taking risks, Allan Saint-Maximin ($13) is worth a look in GPPs. One of my favorite value plays, Jonjo Shelvey ($8), is also playable on this slate.
FanDuel DFS Defenders
Reece James ($14) gets the call this week for my favorite attacking defender to pay up for. He has shown clear attacking upside this season with a goal, an assist, and eight chances created in three games. James has another plus matchup to show his attacking ability on Saturday. Chelsea should control this game allowing James to get up the field. Additionally, James is averaging 7.67 defensive stats aside from his attacking stats. That is an additional ten fantasy points - more than some non-attacking defenders can get you.
On the other side of this game, Jannik Vestergaard ($14) should get some attention. In terms of how he gets his fantasy value, he is quite the opposite of James. Vestergaard provides minimal - if any - attacking upside, however, he can collect all defensive peripheral stats at a rate higher than most. He has finished with over 11 fantasy points in each of his first three games and went for 20+ once. Chelsea allow opposing defenders to accumulate tons of defensive stats, plus Southampton's defense should be under pressure most of the game. Paying up for a defender like Vestergaard can be tough to swallow at times, but he should have a nice fantasy day on Saturday. I'd like to target more Southampton defenders here, but they are a little expensive for their current play and consistency. However, I can get behind Jan Bednarek ($11) for some value. At times last season, he was their best fantasy defender.
This is one of the uglier selections I've seen at defender for a while. Cesar Azpilicueta ($11) has a steady floor week in and week out. He's active enough to collect a good amount of defensive peripherals, and he always comes with assist upside. Chelsea could keep a clean sheet here which could put Azpilicuenta into the mid-high teens on Saturday.
David Luiz ($11) whose actually defending quality is in the toilet, can be useful on this slate. He can run around out there and get you some defensive stats, especially against a team like City who allow peripherals to opposing defenders at a high rate. Javier Manquillo ($7) is viable based on price. This is not the best matchup for him against a team like Manchester United who do not force much defensive action. However, he's worth the $7 price tag if it helps you fit in another stud.
Unless there is a surprise starter, I plan on keeping my player pool at defense small and sticking with these spots
FanDuel DFS Goalkeepers
There's some merit behind playing Ederson ($13). Arsenal are averaging the second-fewest shots per game in the league right now and are bottom five in key passes. City's defense has not been tremendous, but they can definitely keep Arsenal out of the net in this game. Ederson has the best shot at the win bonus. Both bonuses and a few saves could put Ederson in the upper-20 on this slate.
The other goalkeepers are not optimal at all, but Karl Darlow ($7) should get some ownership. Manchester United's attack is not running well right now and several key players are out of form. Now they get a road matchup that could prove to be more difficult than most would expect. Darlow has two 25+ point games already this season in four chances. That's not something you want to miss out for only $7 if you fade United attackers.
A final possible GPP boom-or-bust play on Saturday is Bernd Leno ($8). Arsenal's defense has improved under Arteta. Plus, City's attack is not at full force with no KDB/Aguero/Jesus. Leno has a solid floor with save points and has a massive ceiling if Arsenal bring their A-game on Saturday.
Thanks for reading my EPL DFS lineup picks breakdown on RotoBaller and good luck!
