RADIO
The Premier League was back with a bang in midweek and despite only hitting on one of our four games, we still came away with a profit. That's because of Crystal Palace's 'come from behind draw' at Norwich City, which we predicted in full and bagged us over a 500% ROI. Unfortunately, it was our lowest staked game and with Aston Villa and Tottenham failing to hold on to their leads, we still only finished the week with a 115% ROI. Still, a winning week is a winning week so let's see if we can take that momentum into the weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 87-140-12 (-8.98 units)
- Match results: 27-31
Saturday, February 12th, 2022
Crystal Palace (+203) at Brentford (+172) - 10:00 am ET
We start with the team that helped us bag a big profit in midweek and we're going to follow suit with the same picks. And it's not for nostalgia. It is statistically the most probable outcome.
Crystal Palace's only away win this season was at Manchester City and they have drawn five and lost five of their other ten away games. They have scored in each of their away games in which they've taken at least a point and failed to score in each of their five defeats. So if Crystal Palace scores on the road, they don't lose.
In their eleven away games, Crystal Palace only have four first-half goals and seven in the second-half of those games. This game feels like it'll be a draw given Brentford's recent struggles.
Brentford are on a five-game losing streak following their 2-0 loss against Manchester City in midweek. But all five defeats have come against teams currently in the top half of the table, with three of them against teams in the top five. They've scored in seven of their last eight home league games, with the only blank coming against Manchester City.
Brentford will be desperate to stop the bleeding and get something from this game, especially with three games against teams in the bottom four in the next month. Brentford being favorites does surprise me and playing Crystal Palace on the moneyline does have some merit. At the very least, I believe they can win one half.
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+210) 1 unit
- To win either half - Crystal Palace (-105) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-106) 1 unit
- Half-time/Full-time - Brentford/Draw (+1200) 0.5 units
Leeds United (+230) at Everton (+129) - 10:00 am ET
Leeds played out an entertaining 3-3 draw at Aston Villa in midweek, having led early on and then trailing twice. That game was quite indicative of Leeds' recent games with goals being in no short supply. Only two teams have conceded more this season and the 70 total goals in Leeds' games is the fifth most.
In Leeds' last eight league games, they have scored 14 goals and conceded 23, with four or more goals coming in seven of the eight games. There's been a total of 40 goals in their 11 away games this season and they played out a 2-2 draw at home to Everton earlier in the season.
Everton's first league game under Frank Lampard's management saw them lose at Newcastle United 3-1 and that was after taking a first-half lead. My concern for Everton was how slow and lackluster they were going forward when Demarai Gray went off injured. He's now a major doubt for Saturday's game. New signing Dele Alli replaced Gray and looked very ponderous.
Defensively, Everton looked vulnerable every time Newcastle attacked them with pace and I expect Leeds to do the same given they play a high tempo style normally. It might take time for Lampard to get Everton playing how he wants them to and I feel like the away team will be just too energetic for them over the 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Leeds United
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Leeds United (+230) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Leeds United (+140) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-185) 1.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 (-153) 1.5 units
- Total goals - Over 3.5 (+167) 0.5 units
Brighton (+118) at Watford (+283) - 10:00 am ET
After appointing Roy Hodgson as their new manager, Watford haven't had the immediate upturn in fortunes they would have liked. They followed up their goalless draw at Burnley with a 1-0 defeat at West Ham and their winless run now stands at ten league games.
Goals are starting to be hard to come by and with Hodgson teams generally being more pragmatic in their attacking play, that trend will likely continue. One thing they have looked better at is not shipping in goals. In their eight winless games prior to Hodgson taking over, they had conceded 20 goals.
Brighton have been draw specialists this season with 12 of their 22 games ending up with them sharing the points. Seven of their 11 away games have been draws with seven of their last nine away games being a draw. Five of which have ended 1-1.
One stat you may find surprising is that Brighton have the best second-half away record in the league this season. They've got seven second-half wins, with two draws and two defeats. They've scored seven goals in the final 15 minutes of their away games and given they have just three first-half goals away from home, finishing games strongly has been critical to them being in the top half of the table.
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 1 Brighton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+232) 1 unit
- Total goals - Under 2.5 (-162) 1.5 units
- Second-half moneyline - Brighton (+150) 1 unit
Sunday, February 13th, 2022
Aston Villa (+167) at Newcastle United (+175) - 9:00 am ET
Both teams scored three goals in midweek, with Newcastle coming out 3-1 winners and Aston Villa drawing 3-3. Having won once in their first 20 league games, Newcastle now have back-to-back wins after dispatching a poor Everton team.
It's a similar story for Aston Villa who had only drawn once in their first 19 league games but now have two draws in their last three games, with a win sandwiched in between. The introduction of Phillipe Coutinho has given Aston Villa's attack a real boost and they've now scored ten goals in their last six games. They've only failed to score on three occasions this season, two of which came against Chelsea and Liverpool respectively.
Aston Villa's away record is quite eye-catching with four wins, seven losses and zero draws. They do have three clean sheets, although two of them came against teams currently in the bottom four of the league. Aston Villa have only conceded five goals in their last six away games and six of their 11 away games have seen three or more total goals scored.
The odds are reflective of what looks like being a close game. A draw is on the cards but I fancy Aston Villa to have a little too much going forward for Newcastle and ultimately coming away with all three points.
We will also be playing the cards market in this one. Craig Pawson is slated to be the referee for this game and he's shown 60 yellow cards in his 15 games this season (four per game average). Pawson has taken charge of three Aston Villa away games (including their previous two) and has booked two players from each team in all three games.
In fact, Pawson has shown 11 yellow cards to Aston Villa players in those games and nine yellow cards to their opponents. He's also taken charge of one Newcastle home game this season, booking three players on both sides.
These are two of the most penalized teams with Newcastle's 55 yellow cards received being the second most and Aston Villa's 48 being tied-third most. When the two teams met earlier in the season, Aston Villa had three players booked and Newcastle had four. I expect a combative game with both teams seeing at least two cautions apiece.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Aston Villa (+167) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-155) 1.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 (-120) 1 unit
- Single-game parlay - Both teams over 1.5 total cards (+110) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
