Dynasty Team Analysis - Oakland Raiders

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We have already discussed every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, and will continue to review them as the offseason continues. Including which players you should trust, and which players you should avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

The Raiders entered 2017 basking in the aftermath of their first postseason appearance since 2002. The same positive momentum that had enabled them to achieve a 12-4 record in 2016 was sustained initially, as the team started the year with two wins. However, an unmistakable malaise emerged in Week 3, and the Raiders underachieved significantly from that point forward. Leadership was largely absent from an overmatched coaching staff after Jack Del Rio misjudged both coordinator positions, particularly when he replaced Bill Musgrave with Todd Downing, whose failed approach after inheriting the NFL’s sixth ranked offense was the equivalent of grounding an Airbus A380 and confining it to the runway.

Del Rio also ousted Ken Norton Jr. well after it was clear that his defensive philosophy did not play to the strengths of Oakland’s personnel. Once it also became apparent that some players were unable or unwilling to perform at their previous levels of proficiency, owner Mark Davis fulfilled his decade-long dream of procuring Jon Gruden to resurrect the franchise's fortunes. Now, Gruden's re-emergence has already transformed the philosophy and personnel both on and off the field.  Although it is unclear whether the ongoing alterations have moved the team forward or are accelerating a swift descent.

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Oakland Raiders Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 6-10 (3rd AFC West)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Derek Carr - 206.3 (QB19)
RB: Marshawn Lynch - 164.3 (RB24)
WR: Michael Crabtree 171.8 (WR30)
TE:  Jared Cook- 132.7 (TE12)
IDP: Kahlil Mack - 196.8 (DE4)

Quarterback

The team's excellent record in 2016 was propelled by an impressive but unsustainable series of comeback victories by Derek Carr. His late game heroics were instrumental in the construction of a 28:6 touchdown to interception ratio, and he was just 63 yards short of attaining 4,000 yards when a broken leg ended his season in Week 16. He still finished at QB12, which helped fuel an offseason filled with accolades and lofty expectations.

Unfortunately, the presumed season of promise degenerated into an agonizing weekly progression of underachievement and dysfunction. Downing's unintentional deconstruction of what had been a highly effective offense was hastened by his decisions to switch from a power blocking scheme to a zone concept and placing a greater emphasis on short passes. His frequent inability to generate meaningful in-game adjustments also led to consistently poor strategy.

This resulted in a drop of 49 yards per game for the offense compared to 2016 (373.3/324.1), and a similar plunge in scoring (26PPG/18.8 PPG). Carr only manufactured a 22:13 touchdown to interception ratio, as his yardage total (3,496) and fantasy scoring (QB19) also regressed. His struggles were partially a byproduct of a decline in effectiveness by his offensive line, along with the NFL's fourth highest number of drops (28). He also contended with a (transverse process) fracture in his back, after suffering that injury in Week 4.

However, there are reasons to consider Carr as a QB2 or streaming option. Not only has his health been restored, but he will be operating with a refurbished receiving unit. He will also benefit from the renovated coaching staff, as the voices in his ear will be more valuable  - particularly during in-game situations. Even though Gruden will be calling the plays, he did hire Carr's former coordinator Greg Olson into that same capacity. Olson should help restore Carr's comfort level, which had waned last season.

Running Back

The wide-ranging offensive decline did not spare Oakland’s ground game, as the Raiders ranked just 25th in rushing (97.1 YPG/4.2 YPC), after finishing sixth in that category one year earlier (120.1 YPG and 4.4 YPC). Marshawn Lynch easily led the team in carries (207), yardage (891), and touchdowns (7), while averaging 4.3 YPC.  Pro Football Focus also credited Lynch with tying for fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.09), tying for fifth in forced missed tackles on the ground (42), and allowing zero pressures on his 37 pass-blocking snaps.

The aforementioned change to zone blocking was designed to help Lynch. However, center Rodney Hudson and left guard Kelechi Osemele can be most dominant when they are allowed to unleash their power blocking skills. It is currently unclear what approach offensive line coach Tom Cable plans to implement. But the addition of 240-pound fullback Kevin Smith, coupled with the presence of blocking tight ends Derek Carrier and Lee Smith, indicates that some of Gruden’s well-chronicled preference for 90’s football will transpire.  This should benefit Lynch, and provide owners with the confidence to select him as their RB2.

29-year old Doug Martin was signed as part of Gruden's plan to provide competition at every position. But his inconsistent resume includes a paltry 2.9 YPC average in 2017 and 2016, two seasons of 1,400+ yards blended with an amazingly low average of 444 in four others, and just 15 touchdowns since 2013. Third-year backs Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington remain in the mix as change-of-pace options, while attempting to rebound from their statistical declines last season.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper entered 2017 as a twenty-three-year-old, who was one of just three players in NFL history to attain 70+ catches and 1,000+ yards in each of his first two seasons. Yet a debate raged regarding his value in fantasy leagues, and on his own team when compared to Michael Crabtree. One year later, critics have been supplied with an additional narrative, as he is attempting to rebound from an extremely disappointing season. Cooper's production spiraled downward in sizable fashion (48 receptions/680 yards), while he was only targeted 96 times, after garnering 130-plus during his first two years. A slight increase in touchdowns (7) did not placate many who drafted him at his Round 2 ADP, and some remain hesitant to trust him after an offseason of considerable change.

However, Cooper has been presented with an expressway toward assembling excellent numbers as he becomes the centerpiece of the Raiders’ passing attack. His status as the focal point was confirmed when Crabtree was released in mid-March, after amassing 25 touchdowns during his tenure as a Raider. He also averaging 962.5 yards and 87 catches in his first two seasons, although his reception and yardage totals dropped notably in 2017 (58/618). Crabtree's season was further tainted by a suspension for fighting, and a dwindling relationship with Carr.

While Crabtree’s playmaking capabilities in the red zone may be difficult to replace, Jordy Nelson will operate as Oakland’s WR2 after nine years with Green Bay. Three of the four seasons in which he exceeded 1,250 yards occurred from 2013-2016. That includes the 1,257 that he accrued in 2016, along with 97 receptions, and 14 touchdowns. However, last year's results were concerning (53 receptions/482 yards/6 touchdowns, as he also registered career lows in YPC (9.1), and receptions of 20+ (3). What percentage of that decline was due to diminished skills versus the impact of having Brett Hundley under center for nine games remains unresolved. However, the answer should become apparent as the season progresses.

While uncertainty exists concerning whether Nelson can perform as proficiently as Crabtree, the talent upgrade at WR3 is unquestioned. Martavis Bryant was obtained in exchange for the 79^th overall pick, as the Raiders assumed the risk of acquiring a player who has violated the NFL's substance-abuse policy twice. Their hope is that he will be highly motivated to apply his big play skills during a contract year. A focused Bryant would be a gargantuan improvement over Seth Roberts, while presenting a more viable option for owners.

Tight End

Jared Cook will enter his 10th season having already delivered enough discouraging performances to prohibit many disillusioned former owners from trusting him. But he avoided the statistical decline that nearly every other player in Oakland's offense endured last season. Instead, Cook collected a career best 54 catches, while his team high 688 yards were the most since 2011. All of which enabled him to accumulate enough fantasy points to finish at TE12.

Cook’s yardage total was also sufficient for him to finish seventh among all tight ends, while his reception total placed him 11th. 10 of his catches also generated 20+, which were the fifth most at his position. He accomplished all of this despite inconsistent production, as he accrued 14 receptions for 233 yards in Weeks 7 and 9 but did not surpass 36 yards in nine other contests.

However, the 6'5" Cook created matchup challenges for opponents that were not always exploited due to questionable play calling. Otherwise, his numbers might have been more impressive. His role as the team's pass-catching tight end is unchallenged after the transition of coaches and offensive philosophy. As blocking specialists Carrier and Smith are currently the only other tight ends on the roster. It is still advisable for owners to only draft Cook as their TE2, although he can be effective in that capacity. His value is slightly enhanced in Best-Ball leagues, where another season of erratic production would not be as problematic.

IDP

Oakland entered the offseason with a collection of massive weaknesses throughout a defensive unit that finished 23^rd in 2017 (350 YPG), while also registering an unsightly ranking of 26^th versus the pass (241 YPG/24 touchdowns). Gruden’s decision to hire former Cincinnati defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should be beneficial. But even though this unit has undergone an infusion of new players, many attempts to upgrade the areas of need have been uninspiring.

As a result, the exceptional Khalil Mack remains surrounded by a questionable supporting cast, with the exceptions of Bruce Irvin, and three new arrivals via free agency - linebackers Tahir Whitehead and Derrick Johnson, and cornerback Rashaan Melvin. Even more concerning, was the Raiders’ insistence on repeatedly shunning an abundance of potential difference makers during the NFL Draft, while opting to binge on players that could require time to develop (P.J. Hall), have a track record of off-field issues (Arden Key), or are currently of questionable health (Maurice Hurst/Nick Nelson).

The team will be reliant upon the rookies to eventually join Mario Edwards in supplying any semblance of a pass rush beyond the efforts of Mack and Irvin. Whitehead and Johnson could ultimately be joined at linebacker by Navarro Bowman, who still looms as a free agent. The cornerback position has undergone transition, with T.J. Carrie departing via free agency, while David Amerson and Sean Smith were released. This leaves the Raiders dependent upon Gareon Conley to start along with Melvin, although Conley remains unproven after playing just 97 snaps as a rookie. Karl Joseph, Marcus Gilchrist and 34-year old Reggie Nelson will compete for snaps at safety, as Nelson's six seasons with Guenther provided incentive to keep him.

Offseason Outlook

When the Raiders were on the clock in Round 1 of the draft, they overlooked their glaring needs at defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, and safety with a relentless dedication toward selecting offensive tackle Kolton Miller. This compelled them to trade down from the 10th overall position, then ignore the remaining opportunity to secure a stout defender by using the 15th overall selection on Miller. The decision-making process that culminated with his selection was questionable. Yet, the right tackle position did require attention at some point, and Penn's long-term status at left tackle is also uncertain. Otherwise, Hudson, Osemele and right guard Grady Jackson still comprise the strength of Oakland's offensive line.

While various defensive players have been injected into the evolving roster equation, the emphasis on fortifying multiple positions offensively has been evident since Jon Gruden re-emerged as the ultimate decision maker for the franchise. The redesigned attack might become more effective due to improved coaching and the establishment of a clear identity. Or, the “back to 1998” concept could prove to be a ill-fated plan that enlarges the hole that was created last season.

While that leaves an array of possibilities regarding the eventual record of the team, the value of your fantasy options is more defined. Owners can select Lynch (RB2), Cooper (WR2) and Mack (DE1) without hesitation, while Carr, Nelson, and Cook are options much later during the draft process.

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