January 15, 2024

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The American Express. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The American Express

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The American Express Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: Six

Last Five Winners Of The American Express

Expected Cut-Line

Every Course In California?

7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Overseeded Bermuda

While I joke about The American Express incorporating every venue inside the state of California, I would be lying if I didn't encounter some trepidation with this event from a modeling perspective because of the helter-skelter approach we will face this week. The field will be required to take on a three-course rotation between Thursday and Saturday, highlighted by an abnormal 54-hole cut and Pro-Am nature that prolongs rounds.

The top 65 players (and ties) that make the final day on Sunday will head back to the PGA West Stadium Course – a venue they will have played during one of their opening three rounds. That at least helps to marginally ease the handicapping process when we know where play will inevitably end on Sunday, but the dreaded removal of 'Stat Tracker' elsewhere only amplifies the model-building dilemma since we are flying blind whenever a golfer tees it up on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta track.

I've always found simplifying the approach helps when you emphasize parallels between competing courses. Without that, you are throwing darts at a board for an event with very little rollover predictability. I used short Par 72 courses with easy scoring conditions since all land under that parameter. It is an easy way to get unique with your research when you condense the data to land into a specific zone. Still, beyond the layout of the land approach, one of the significant corollary trends between all three properties originates from the ease of scoring on their four par-fives.

Golfers who have demonstrated an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard, and the final crux of that answer still comes down to how you handle the marginally more difficult Stadium Course and nine holes that have water. Some combination of total driving (geared toward accuracy) is generally a good place to start your research if you want to avoid tournament-ending danger, and the extensive bunkering can make finding fairways imperative, especially when you realize they produce around the highest birdie percentages on tour yearly when you play from the short grass.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

Strokes Gained: Comp Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 72s (15%)

Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring + Short Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Birdie or Better Out Of The Fairway (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

All four players above $10,000 landed inside the top four of my model. We are going to need more answers in terms of ownership and additional factors to separate this group. Each is under consideration early in the week and shouldn't require a deep-dive outlook until we get more predicability with how popular they will be this week.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

The quality pricing continues here in the $9,000s, with top-25 potential littered all over the board. It is hard to believe that ownership won't see a quick 180 over the next 24 hours since not everyone can be this popular, but the early leverage does look to be with Jason Day, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler and Tom Kim.

Personally, I am curious to see where Tony Finau, J.T. Poston and Chris Kirk land with their popularity. Not that we are here right now, but a contrarian Finau does intrigue me on these straightforward greens. My model seems to think Scheffler and Finau are the two names who are a putter away from lapping the field. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

The only two players to grade as a positive value on Monday for both price and ownership ended up being Si Woo Kim and Taylor Montgomery. 

I don't know if ownership will stay in that sub-10 percent range for Si Woo, but we get nearly the same profile for Kim as we do Hadwin. The only difference is Kim has won this title before and is carrying no popularity. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

We will dive into this group later in the week!

Favorite Player In Each Range:

$10,000+ - Scottie Scheffler

$9,000s - Tony Finau

$8,000s - Si Woo Kim

$7,000s - Matthieu Pavon or Nicholas Lindheim if nobody is going to play either. Pure leverage

$6,000s - Robert MacIntyre

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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