DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Mexico Open Golf Advice (2023)

April 26, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Mexico Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Mexico Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Mexico Open Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 2

Last Five Winners Of The Mexico Open

Expected Cut-Line

Vidanta

7,456 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Paspalum

Measuring in at 7,456 yards, Vidanta mostly played how you would expect during its inaugural appearance on the tour last season. Wide-open fairways and virtually no rough did turn this into a bomber's paradise. However, the answer goes beyond some driver-heavy course that will entirely remove all danger from the equation.

The first point to note for that answer stems from the sticky, paspalum grass that removes rollout from the equation. While the expected driving distance will see a 13-yard increase over expectation, that grass-type factor, mixed with the venue being played at sea level, only further enhances the notion that you better be comfortable with a driver in hand.

We see the inability to generate distance off-the-tee as far as you need to shrink the track when we received an astronomical 42.3% of second shots from beyond 200 yards last year, a total that placed 19.4% above the PGA Tour average in projected influence. That skillset requirement highlights a preferred plan of bomb-and-gouge meets long iron savants, although the last part of this solution may come down to the wind that you always receive on a track near water.

If you can find a golfer with extended length off-the-tee that is also good with his long irons in the wind, you are off to a great start in building the optimal prototype for success. Many secondary answers of scoring on long par-fours (seven over 445 yards) and things of that nature will be taken care of when you pinpoint that first step of the calculation. Rahm won last year because he was the best player in the event, but distance + long iron play is the strategy for most wins from the Spaniard. Find that from one of his foes this week, and you might be able to tackle the giant with an outright win.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (25%)

Strokes Gained Total Paspalum (7.5%)

Strokes Gained Total Over 7,400 Yards (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)

SG: Total Easy-To-Hit Fairways + Short Rough (10%)

Weighted Scoring (22.5%)

Distance + Long Irons (15%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($12,000) - Was $12,000 enough of an increase to keep the masses off of Jon Rahm? Unfortunately, probably not since the final five spots would still allow $7,600, creating ease to include a golfer that is nearly 2/1 to win this event. We could discuss that market separately in another article, but Rahm is still highly under consideration. Let's see where ownership is trending by Thursday.
• Most Upside: Jon Rahm ($12,000)
• Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($10,700) - Unless ownership projections plummet for Jon Rahm, which I don't expect to be the case, it seems likely that Tony Finau will go off the board marginally below Rahm in popularity for the Mexico Open. I continue to stand by the notion that the data is better than the finishes, although it is hard to make a strong stance in this section until we get more information. My hope is that one sees a slight decrease because everyone decides to go in one direction over the other, but the early lean would be to lock both and differentiate elsewhere.
• Fade: None - Both are playable
• Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($12,000)

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Wyndham Clark ($9,700) - According to Data Golf's rankings, Wyndham Clark has become a top 25 golfer in the world. It is hard to argue that notion after his start in 2023, and the proximity numbers are trending to become the perfect combination to go with his distance for this course. If both of those areas pop, a win is possible.
• Most Upside: Gary Woodland ($9,600) - Woodland ranks third in this field when equally combining distance and long iron proximity from over 200 yards. The 40%+ distribution from that range will entice a lot of people to want to play the American.
• Favorite GPP Play: Maverick McNealy ($9,400) - This can change very quickly, so be sure to read my 'Final DraftKings' article that is posted on Wednesday, but it is an early leverage lean over anything else. McNealy is a top 15 golfer by my math in multiple iterations of the sheet, even if he is a negative value compared to his price. I am pinpointing the sub-five percent ownership mark as why I am interested, but I will pivot elsewhere if this percentage bloats.
• Fade: Byeong Hun An $9,100 - Byeong Hun An is safe enough for cash game contests, but this answer stems from the opposite reason for what I just said with Maverick McNealy. At the end of the DAYYYY, it is an ownership game of leverage. My numbers are more worried about Pendrith and Noren when we get technical of where someone ranks, but it is not as if anyone is looking to play either.
• Most Likely Winner: Gary Woodland ($9,600) 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Stephan Jaeger ($8,200) - My model is marginally below where some people in the space are with Stephan Jaeger. I know there are prominent names in the industry that will have him even higher than I do, but it is hard to view him as anything other than a top-15 golfer in this field. Jaeger ranks ninth in weighted scoring and has a nice mixture of safety and upside.
• Most Upside: Alex Smalley ($8,400) - I have a sickness when it comes to Alex Smalley. I could easily list him as the "most likely winner," but I am trying not to have him for every section. I've been down that road in the past.
• Favorite GPP Play: MJ Daffue ($8,000) - I genuinely hope the projected ownership ends up being lower on MJ Daffue than we see early in the week. Daffue is firing on all cylinders with four top-29 finishes since the Honda Classic and ranks eighth in weighted scoring for this track.
• Fade: Brandon Wu ($8,600), Ben Martin ($8,600) - The real answer comes down to ownership, but you can look at my model for a few of the reasons each player is overpriced.
• Most Likely Winner: Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)...But maybe Smalley? Definitely Smalley. I need to move to the next section. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out the model for all answers! There are too many players to discuss here today.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Go to the model for all names!

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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