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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane on 08/07/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Second UFC numbered event in the past 30 days? Can't complain. It is true that this one won't feature any "real" belt, yes, with just an interim champ about to get named. BUT. We come off a UFC 264 in which neither Poirier nor McGregor were actual contenders nor fought for the gold, so there's that. And mates, that fight was a dud while headlining the vent because CMG got his leg a little bit done just five minutes into it.
So, back to what matters today: UFC 265 will feature the no. 2 and no. 3 HW contenders and pit them against each other in fighting for the Interim HW title and a chance at putting their hands on Real Champ Francis Ngannou in a few months' time. If that's not enough for you, well, then you might find the whole package more appealing as we'll get to watch living-legend Jose Aldo (a no. 5 contender himself) facing Pedro Munhoz (no. 9), and the fifth- and sixth-best welters (Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque respectively) going at it. Can't get much more loaded, can it?
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane on 08/07/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Heavyweight (IC) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ciryl Gane, $9400 - vs. Derrick Lewis
Six fights, six wins. That's Gane in a nutshell for you, folks. Gane stepped into the Octagon for the first time two years to this day and all he's done is finishing three foes early (2 subs, 1 KO) while getting three more Ws via decision. He'll be facing the über-experienced Derrick Lewis, who has been around since early 2014. Lewis is himself on a four-fight winning streak that is far from a joke, even more considering he's knocked out his last two opponents in Aleksei Oleinik and Curtis Blaydes.
Gane projects to win the interim title this Saturday. I mean, it's very clear he can do it on both striking and grappling, and while not adept at chasing takedowns he can definitely pull them off. His volume has also been sublime on a nightly basis, and although Lewis has put together a good run of late, the freshest Gane should get the W and "fake" belt home.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Pedro Munhoz, $7600 - vs. Jose Aldo
Both of these men rebounded in their last fight after losing three straight (Aldo) or a couple in a row (Munhoz). Jose Aldo, truth be told, looked very cooked in that putrid streak of losses with two decisions and a KO against him in a one-year span from mid-2019 to mid-2020. Munhoz wasn't much better, as he dropped a couple of decisions in pretty much the same span of time.
Aldo's last fight ended in W for the Brazuco but he was a little underwhelming and even though it went the distance Aldo could only finish 0-of-2 in takedowns and 44-of-70 in Significant Strikes. Munzhos was much more active landing 94 of his 194 SS attempts, and that's also been the case of late for him. Not the flashiest or more exciting of fights out there with a couple of washed-up foes in it, but I guess you have to favor Munhoz if only because he comes with a much higher floor whether he ends winning or losing.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vicente Luque, $8500 - vs. Michael Chiesa
We watched Chiesa fight for the first time in the UFC more than eight years ago. Time flies. Oh, and like good wines, Chiesa has been absolutely fantastic in the latter part of his career: 4Ws, no Ls since July of 2018 have him in a very nice position these days. Luque himself has been absolutely monstrous his whole tenure fighting in the UFC promo: he's been defeated just two times out of 15 times in the cage, and he's 3-0 since the last time he dropped one in Nov. 2019.
Chiesa is a beast at grappling and taking foes down. He's attempted at least 5 TDs in all of his last five bouts landing at least 2 in each of those. He's magnificent and his track record of Submission wins speaks by itself. Luque doesn't give a dam about that as he straight fades that part of the game but never lost via submission. Luque looks way better as he's fought more during the past few months and yields DKFP/min averages way above average.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Casey Kenney, $8200 - vs. Song Yadong
These two are better than their last time out showed. That's because both men lost their latest fight to their foes while having dropped just another (Kenney) or none (Yadong) fights before in their UFC runs. Remove 2021 from their resumes, and Kenny would be 5-1 since his debut in early 2019 while Yadong would sit at a pretty nice 5-0-1. Not bad.
Casey Kenney booked an absolutely mad four fights in the 2020 calendar year alone, which to say he fought last year the same times Yadong did from the end of 2018 to March 2021. Although Kenney has been able to score himself one early win with a Submission in the first round against Louis Smolka, it's not that he's super-active on TD attempts, and all of his other fights went the distance. The striking volume is rather high, though, saving his fantasy upside. Yadong comes with the higher finishing prowess having two KOs and a Sub in his career. He's lower on both striking volume and takedown attempts, but the bonus points via potential finish can't be discarded. Kenney looks like the slightly safest bet this weekend with Yadong a little bit overdependent on a KO to become a truly valuable play.
