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DraftKings CFB DFS Picks - Daily Fantasy College Football Advice for 9/29


Welcome to Week 5, my daily fantasy friends. DraftKings decided to roll similarly to last week for this Saturday's options, keeping it at a 10-game Main slate with a lot of household teams. However, we don't have the luxury of many games with tight spreads, so we'll have to be careful not to target too many players from games with blowout potential.

Speaking of blowouts, since we'll want to avoid those, let's take a look at a few games with high (or relatively high) point total projections in games with tight(er) spreads relative to the rest of the slate. The belle of the ball is without question the matchup in Lubbock between West Virginia and Texas Tech. The two teams seemingly allergic to defense have an over/under of 75 listed, with the Mountaineers being only a 3.5 point favorite. This game is a great target for cash games and tournaments. The other game I have high interest in thanks to Vegas figures is the Pitt Panthers visiting the UCF Knights - game over/under of 64.5 with the Knights favored by 13.5. And lastly, the Purdue - Nebraska game is worth calling out, not only because of the tight 3.5 point spread, but due to the fact that both teams rank horribly on defense so far in 2018.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy college football lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/29/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @kpLuch.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks

Will Grier - QB, at Texas Tech (10,900)

While I think McKenzie Milton is in the conversation, Will Grier is my top overall cash game and quarterback play for this Saturday's action. The Mountaineer righty has been playing tremendous, high-level football in three games (they lost one to Hurricane Florence) this season, never failing to reach 30 DraftKings points in any of those contests. Amazingly enough, Grier's lowest completion percentage in a game this season was 73%, and seeing as this is a pass-happy offense operating with a high volume of throws, that's a really impressive mark. Making matters more enticing is that this game has the highest projected point total - a lofty 75 that I think can and will be reached/surpassed - and that Grier has a really talented group of wide outs, led by David Sills V.

Kellen Mond - QB, vs Arkansas ($9,200)

A lot of the ownership and salary allocation is going to go to one of the top-three priced quarterbacks (Grier, Kyler Murray and McKenzie Milton)this weekend, which makes Mond really enticing as an ownership and upside leverage play in tournament formats. The Texas A&M signal caller is coming off a pretty impressive fantasy performance against Alabama that saw him rack up 25 points against an elite defense, coming up just shy of 200 and 100 yards in the air and on the ground, respectively. The dual-threat QB should have a much easier time gaining yards through the air (and on the ground on broken plays) against an Arkansas team that is allowing only 88 yards per game on the ground, but 270 through the air. Mond hasn't reached the 30 pass attempt mark just once this season, and with the volume likely there in College Station this weekend against a weak Razorback secondary, I like his upside quite a bit.

Also Consider: Trevor Lawrence - QB, vs Syracuse ($8,500)

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs

Travis Etienne - RB, vs Syracuse ($7,400)

Etienne appears to be making a strong case for First-Team All-ACC this season after making second team in just his freshman year in 2017. The shifty back has a knack for finding the end zone so far in 2018, as he's put together two straight weeks of 100+ yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Considering his production and heavy involvement in this offense - and that Clemson is handing over the quarterback reigns to a guy making his first career start - I think he's underpriced and should see a heavy load of work on Saturday en route to another big fantasy performance.

Trey Sermon - RB, vs Baylor ($7,200)

I didn't mention it above in the Etienne write-up, but a big thing both these backs having working in their favor this weekend is the projected game script. As we've learned from NFL data, it's optimal to target running backs in games with high projected totals from the team that is projected to win comfortably (based on the spread). Both of these guys are plaiying in games with top-four point projections on the slate, and each is projected to win by 3+ touchdowns. Of course, there's more to this play than just the positive game script - Sermon has been impressive and efficient in this Sooners offense since taking over for Rodney Anderson - but I don't think we've seen his ceiling yet. With a healthy dose of carries projected against a weaker defense, he's a strong cash play.

D.J. Knox - RB, at Nebraska ($5,200)

Salary savings, healthy volume and big play upside - that's what you're getting when you roster Knox this weekend in Nebraska. This Nebraska defense has been absolutely gashed by opposing running backs all season, and that's not something they can just fix mid week in prep for Purdue and their creative offense. Knox had tough sledding last week against a good run defense from Boston College, but it's encouraging that he had his name called 20 times. With that sort of volume against Nebraska, he can do big things and destory his price implied point total.

Also Consider: Keaontay Ingram - RB, at Kansas State ($4,700)

 

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers

David Sill V - WR, at Texas Tech ($8,200)

After a 35 point monster performance last week, I was expecting Sills' DK salary to climb up quite a bit. Lucky for you and me, only $200 was tacked on, making him a strong value (despite being the highest priced receiver) this weekend with a high points floor. Sills is quarterback Will Grier's favorite target in this pass-powered offense, and he's certainly his most trusted target in the red zone as he gets a ton of looks when the Mountaineers are inside the 20. Seeing as this game is projected to be a shootout, we absolutely want to pair Sills and Grier together in cash.

Also Consider: Jhamon Ausbon - WR, vs Arkansas ($5,600)

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