RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Sungjae Im put his plethora of hours on the golf course over the past year to good use at the Honda Classic, impressively capturing his first career title on Sunday. Im got off to a hot start during his final round with four birdies in his opening five holes and was able to keep his momentum going throughout the majority of the day with a handful of lengthy par saves. Anyone who watches golf regularly will tell you that Im is going to win many more times on tour, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him find the winner's circle again before long.
Gamers were provided a mixed bag of production overall from the most owned golfers of the week. Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen provided duds for DFS participants, but Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood all rewarded their backers nicely.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Gary Woodland and Russell Henley and also were correct in fading Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Billy Horschel. While we do have a surplus of positives to point to for last week's article, our recommendation of Joaquin Niemann and Corey Conners as viable GPP contenders did fall short, with that being said, it is nearly impossible to get the entire board correct from top-to-bottom, and I believe this article has been a massive success so far in 2020. We have written about the winner in seven out of nine weeks and will look to do so again at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Arnold Palmer - PGA DFS Overview
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
7,454 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
After last week's Honda Classic left everyone disappointed with the quality of the field, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will begin to ramp things back up before next week's Players Championship takes us to the pinnacle of field strength. It is worth noting that the invitational status of the tournament will keep entries down to around 120 golfers, but we will see the same rules of the top 65 and ties making the cut. That should allow a slightly more aggressive route to be taken on DFS sites when it comes to roster construction, but it doesn't necessarily make things easier in terms of handicapping with the challenging layout in front of us.
On the surface, Bay Hill is an extremely challenging venue in ideal settings but can quickly ramp up in difficulty if the wind comes into play. As of Sunday night, we do have some potential for thunderstorms on Thursday, so you will need to keep an eye on reports as Thursday draws closer. Water comes into play on 10 holes, and the property is heavily bunkered with 85 sand traps. Golfers will have their best chance to score on the four par-fives, but it is difficult to find too many natural birdie opportunities aside from that.
Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards will be crucial this weekend, which is one of the reasons why Bay Hill is a second shot course. Over 40 percent of approach shots came from beyond 200 yards here last season, and strokes gained approach has been 2.2 times more influential on the top-five finishers than strokes gained off the tee. Players will need to be able to scramble around Arnie's masterpiece to salvage par when possible, and it will be essential to create birdie opportunities when the time is right. The venue is long at over 7,400 yards, but it doesn't allow golfers to bomb-and-gauge freely. There is a strategy that comes into play on most holes, and players will need to understand the risk/reward behind every shot.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
Bay Hill |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
278 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
65% |
60% |
|
GIR Percentage |
62% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
58% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.59 |
0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 5/1 and is followed by Tommy Fleetwood at 14/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1 and Xander Schauffele/Adam Scott at 22/1. Francesco Molinari is the defending champion of the event and enters the week available at 90/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 25%
- Ball Striking 20%
- Proximity 200+ Yards 17.5%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 15%
- Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
- Par-Three Average 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,800) - We have seen historically that $12,000 is usually the maximum total DraftKings will implement for standard events on any player. Using that as our base point, Rory McIlroy's $11,800 price tag should be considered STRONG by every sense of the word. It is nearly impossible to make much of a case against McIlroy with his current form, but if the top-ranked player in the world is going to challenge 20% ownership for the week, there might be some merit in limiting your exposure at a difficult test like Bay Hill. There are significant numbers to be found throughout, and last week showed us that a chalky selection can go sour quickly. While I stand by that stance, this is still the hottest player in the world we are talking about, and nobody would be shocked to find out McIlroy is our champion on Sunday.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,000) - We see this scenario quite a bit in DFS golf. A golfer who was touted as a selection the week prior goes out and challenges for the title in the previous event, but a slip-up on Sunday diminishes the overall quality of the finish for a lot of his backers. I believe that will come into play this weekend at the API, as Fleetwood's lack of perceived win equity will hurt his perception throughout the week. If you liked the Englishman at the Honda Classic, I don't see a reason why you shouldn't like him again at Bay Hill from a stylistic standpoint, although the added strength of the field might make the 10th-ranked player in the world an overvalued commodity. I probably won't have as much exposure as some because I do think you will need a top-three result for him to pay off his price, and I worry that Fleetwood's current issues scoring on par-fives might dampen his overall upside.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600) - Hideki Matsuyama is a difficult nut to crack weekly. His consistency and level of ball-striking always made him an option that wasn't going to stay in the $9,000 price range for long, but this recent inflation in price that we have gotten on the Japanese sensation does make it moderately more difficult for us to decide what is proper. When we get up into the mid-to-high $10,000 range, we start needing victories for golfers to pay off their price tag. Matsuyama grades out successfully for me this weekend in about every vital statistic, but his three finishes outside the top-30 at this event in the past three years does have me slightly worried. For that reason, I prefer Matsuyama as a cash-game play.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400) - The way I am going to handle Bryson DeChambeau is probably going to come down to ownership. Of the 'big' guys in the field this week, DeChambeau is one of the only golfers that doesn't check both boxes in terms of strokes gained off the tee and with his irons. That exclusion because of random poor iron play didn't prevent him from grading out second on my model, but it does at least add some hesitation in backing him inside a GPP market if he goes off as one of the highest owned players in the field. I am going to take a watch and see approach, but I'd expect the American to be popular.
Xander Schauffele ($10,000) - For a player that didn't have much public support for over a year, Xander Schauffele has taken off so far in 2020 - consistently entering these events as one of the most popular selections on the board. Call it the Nagels Bagels effect or whatever you would like, but the 26-year-old has finally started to garner the respect he deserves. For selfish reasons, I am hoping for a ho-hum four days because I think Schauffele might be about to peak and win The Players Championship, but it wouldn't shock me to see him challenge the top of the leaderboard at the API and crash his potential value next weekend.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Adam Scott ($9,700) - Golf is an interesting sport because everyone is given the same information weekly and can choose how they would like to decipher it. Sometimes that results in us finding under the radar selections because of our unique outlook, and other times it might point towards us landing on a consensus play. Neither of those outcomes necessarily is wrong or incorrect, but we do have a third possibility that is nothing more than having a gut feeling. I am very mathematical and precise when I do my research for an event, but even though Adam Scott does grade out fourth on my spreadsheet this weekend, I have some trepidation and concerns that might take me off of him entirely. For starters, Scott's lack of consistency off the tee does worry me that trouble could be found with his driver, and it doesn't help that we have entered a range that dictates a top-10 showing must be provided for him to pay off his price tag. I don't necessarily believe Scott implodes - although I don't think it is off the table entirely - but I more so worry that we overpay for a selection that doesn't generate a proper return on investment.
Sungjae Im ($9,500) - I've talked at great lengths recently about fading golfers the next week after their win. We always see DraftKings overprice them to account for recent public perception, and it is challenging to know exactly what to expect during their next outing. That is a thought-process I stand by wholeheartedly, but Sungjae Im isn't your average player. To denounce the first part of my theory, Im was egregiously underpriced last weekend and has entered back into his proper range for the Arnold Palmer. On top of that, the South Korean has a mindset to play practically every event that the tour offers. I don't think a win changes his gameplan whatsoever, and it is worth noting that Im only gained one stroke putting at the Honda Classic. That is scary because it means there is still more meat left on the bone for another weekend run if his putter can get hot this time around.
Patrick Reed ($9,400) - Patrick Reed has had enough of a layoff between starts (two weeks) that the theory I just mentioned regarding Sungjae Im doesn't apply to the American. However, I still am treading very lightly with how much exposure I lend to Reed at Bay Hill. Yes, the ninth-ranked player in the world has found success with his irons during his past four starts, but for as much as I hate backing golfers after a win, I even more so despise going back down that road when the victory came from a hot putting performance. Putting can be hit-and-miss weekly, and his 11.8 strokes gained on an entirely different surface doesn't have me very eager to invest my money on him at a challenging venue.
Rickie Fowler ($9,300) - Unlike a lot of the prominent players that are struggling with their games, Rickie Fowler has been rather steady from a statistical standpoint. If there has been a domain where the American has found issues as of late, we have seen him struggle with his around the green game - an area that historically has been fine for Fowler. The negative narrative around Fowler's swing change can't be taken lightly, but I am just not seeing this massive concern that others are currently. Fowler has gained strokes with his irons and putter twice in a row and even gained strokes off the tee at the Honda Classic. It is just a matter of getting rid of his recent propensity to toss in a poor round. I wouldn't put it past Fowler doing just that this weekend in Florida.
Brooks Koepka ($9,200) - At what point do we just have to cover our eyes and play Brooks Koepka? That mentality might not be as widespread for the DFS market, but it is going to be difficult to fade the American as an outright wager if you can grab him at 30/1. Consider Koepka to be a volatile GPP option, but the upside is there for him to provide a quality showing at virtually no ownership.
Jason Day ($9,100) - To infinity and beyond!!!! That joke will never get old when discussing the 'Space Ranger,' but I do feel as if it needed to be brought up after Jason Day scorned the fantasy community last year at this event by withdrawing after six holes because of back tightness. While that should have been the end of the story, Day made headlines by instead spending the day shooting targets at Disney World's Buzz Lightyear Space Ranger Spin, causing mass hysteria throughout the industry. All jokes aside, there are worse scenarios than getting Day at a low ownership percentage, but it is not all sunshine and roses for the Aussie this weekend. Day has shown a bad habit of encountering trouble off the tee lately and could be in for a long few days if he can't find the short grass. These concerns have never prevented the 45th-ranked player in the world from generating success at Bay Hill in the past, but they are worth mentioning for the man that could go rogue and end up on Pirates of the Caribbean at any moment.
Justin Rose ($9,000) - I've been willing to let a lot slide for a handful of these players that are undergoing struggles at this moment, but Justin Rose's current form has me the most concerned. Unlike some of his counterparts, Rose is leaking strokes with all facets of his game, making him someone that is nearly impossible to trust. Venues that require long iron prowess have always been where Rose makes his money, so if you want to take a shot in the dark at 40/1 or as a contrarian GPP pick, I won't necessarily argue. However, with all that being said, I'm not sure how you can trust the Englishman as anything more than that.
Tony Finau ($8,900) - A lot of the ownership in this section is going to come from Henrik Stenson, Byeong Hun An and Marc Leishman. I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that a handful of gamers will drop down in price and construct a lineup that features multiple options in this range, but it does seem possible that Tony Finau ends up being one of the golfers who gets marginally overlooked. We saw the American get bypassed at the Waste Management because of course history, and I would be careful in making the same mistake here. Finau's results have been respectable at Bay Hill with two made cuts in three tries, but his 28th place finish in 2017 could have been a lot higher if it weren't for his disastrous putting display of losing over three strokes on the greens.
Bubba Watson ($8,300) - I wouldn't necessarily think of Bay Hill when discussing tracks for Bubba Watson to find success, but I can't say I would have necessarily thought of TPC Scottsdale either as a venue where the American would have thrived at in the past. Watson has made his six previous cuts here at the Arnold Palmer, finishing inside the top-25 four of those times. The American has generated three top-18 finishes in his past four events but will go under-owned after his debacle that left gamers stranded at the Genesis. With only a seven percent projected ownership percentage, Watson has the potential to win this weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100) - I took a firm stance against Tyrrell Hatton at the WGC-Mexico and was burned by his sixth-place showing. I am not going to necessarily take quite the same position this time around in Florida, but it doesn't mean I am running to my computer to insert the Englishman into lineups. Bay Hill is a volatile course that requires a level head, and I am not sure I trust Hatton to keep his composure throughout four days.
Abraham Ancer ($7,800) - Abraham Ancer has seen four of his Presidential Cup teammates win to open up 2020. Will that be enough to help push the 29th-ranked player in the world over the hump for a victory of his own? Ancer has a missed cut here in his only attempt, but it is difficult to ignore his four top-12 finishes in his previous seven events. Consider the Mexican golfer to be a volatile but potentially game-winning GPP option.
Francesco Molinari ($7,200) - Can the defending champion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational regain his form at a venue that has seen him post five top-17 results in his past six attempts? I wouldn't necessarily discount that possibility, but I do believe Molinari makes for a better outright wager at 100/1 than he does a GPP play because of the added increase he will receive in ownership from his past history. With that being said, I am not playing him in either market until he shows some life.
Keegan Bradley ($7,000) - You can't roster Keegan Bradley and expect to make a cut. That comment might sound strange on the surface, but players like Bradley are always better suited as GPP longshots that are capable of anything. The American doesn't enter the week with the best form of his career, but seven made cuts in a row at API might allow the 64th-ranked player in the world to sneak under the radar as a volatile option to consider at $7,000.
Tom Hoge ($7,000) - Tom Hoge will see his GPP ownership percentage sink from around 10% last weekend at the Honda Classic to roughly three percent after his missed cut. I generally like targeting golfers that were chalk one week and under-owned the next, and this feels like a good rebound spot for the American.
Sam Ryder ($6,400) - When you get this far down the board, the main goal is to find dollar savers that can still sneak in a top-25 result. A lot of times, these finishes can come from golfers that are steady across the board for the key statistics that week, and Ryder seems to fit the bill by ranking inside the top 55 compared to the field in every category for me this week. The American might not be the selection that wins you the GPP, but he can be what saves a lineup from crashing and burning.
