RADIO
Our college football action starts to get a little more spread out this week. We have a Wednesday game in the Fun Belt this week and a pair of games on both Thursday and Friday before another big Saturday slate. We are in the heat of conference battles right now and we know about as much about these teams as the teams do themselves. Sometimes, that isn't much...
What did we learn in Week 6? Friday nights can get nuts. Oklahoma fans are spoiled by 21st Century success. I remember the 90's. This isn't rock bottom. However, Oklahoma has been playing football for 114 years and they had never lost consecutive games by more than 30 points. Defensive coach my ass!
Ohio State became the first Big Ten(14) team to score 45 or more in five straight games since 1946-47. C.J. Stroud became the first Big Ten(14) quarterback ever with three games of six passing touchdowns (two of those were against Sparty). This is not some conference that has only been around for 20 years or so. The Big Ten is the oldest conference in Division 1. It has been around longer than the NCAA has!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (10/11-13/22)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Louisiana at Marshall(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line has jumped four points and I now like it a lot less. Marshall's only win since ousting Notre Dame in South Bend is against Gardner-Webb. The Cajuns' defense has been pretty good this year. Pretty good might be enough to keep this within ten points. Marshall's offense has only scored 64 points in three games against FBS opponents. I'll take Louisiana, and even though this game flies solo tonight, I'm probably not taking any action on it.
Baylor(-3.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Baylor lost a lot of luster after losing to BYU and allowing 24 points to the worst offense in the Big 12(10) (Iowa State). West Virginia likes to give up points and Baylor is good enough to score them. Their lack of balance on offense is a bit concerning, but they had a lot of players step up in the Oklahoma State game. I like Baylor by about a touchdown here.
Temple at Central Florida(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Temple has only scored 37 points in four games against FBS teams. 20 of those were against UMass, so I'm not sure they count. On the flip side of that, the Owls have only allowed 70. UCF would have to go well above average against the Owls here, but they're at home and have the talent to do it. This Temple defense is going to have issues with John Rhys Plumlee. Give me UCF.
Navy at SMU(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is in a free-fall since Navy blasted Tulsa last week. The Ponies have lost three straight, including the Iron Skillet a couple of weeks ago. Navy is not an explosive team, but the defense has looked good of late and the offense is better with Tai Lavatai leading it. This feels like too many. Give me Navy.
UTSA(-33.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTSA didn't even cover Texas Southern by this much, but FIU lost to a Western Kentucky team that UTSA just beat by 73 points. I'll take the Roadrunners.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 6. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
This should be better than last week, but an 0-4 start on Friday didn't kick off my weekend right. Neither did the historic beatdown that Texas put on Oklahoma. Oh well...let's get to it. Putting it off won't make it any better.
Nebraska(-3.5) at Rutgers: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm all for calling pass interference on offensive players...but only when they deserve it. Of the four called in this game, only one of them was actually pass interference. The officials in this game were the worst I've seen all year. Rutgers's run defense is good. Nebraska's defense continues to make improvements. The people around here are starting to get a little too optimistic about a 3-3 team though. It might come crashing down next week.
Houston at Memphis(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a game that Memphis should have won. Houston had seven points in the first three quarters, then all of the sudden, Memphis couldn't do anything right in the fourth quarter, including whiffing on an onside kick recovery. This was Three Mile Island if it was a football team...
Colorado State at Nevada(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Nevada offense is so bad that it scored two touchdowns for each team to lose outright to an 0-4 team that got smoked by a FCS team last week. Nice going guys!
UNLV at San Jose State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Doug Brumfield went down early in this one, but I don't think it would have altered the final result. Cameron Friel was serviceable and didn't turn the ball over and Brumfield was off to a 1-for-6 start throwing the ball. The Spartans dominated this game in every way possible.
(4)Michigan(-21.5) at Indiana: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was tied at halftime. Michigan screwed around just enough to miss the cover by that half-point. Jackasses...
(8)Tennessee(-3.5) at (25)LSU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I hammered this line because many sharps were...and because of the money rolling in on LSU. I never thought I would be able to hear Rocky Top clearly in Death Valley, but here we are. Vols fans have something to be excited about this year. This was the largest win over a ranked team for the Vols since 1995. That's pre-Peyton Manning for those of you keeping track at home.
(17)TCU(-6.5) at (19)Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about you, but I felt cheated by the football Gods when Jalon Daniels was forced to leave this game just before halftime. Jason Bean did a great job in relief, I just feel that Daniels is special. It was a valiant effort by the Jayhawks without their leader, but a late touchdown won it for the Toadies.
Arkansas at (23)Mississippi State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
K.J. Jefferson ended up missing this game, so I pounded the Bulldogs' moneyline. I moved it up to 4 points here but probably should have maxed it out. I'm not going to complain. This was a dominant performance by the Bulldogs against an Arkansas team that wasn't a passing threat without Jefferson.
Texas(-6.5) vs. Oklahoma at Dallas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the easiest money you'll ever make. This was the first time Oklahoma has failed to score a point since November 7...1998. This was the first time Oklahoma has lost three in a row since October 10 of that same year. This was the first time Texas has shut us out since 1965. Yes, not having Dillon Gabriel was a problem, but it wouldn't have mattered. One team was fired up for this game and it sure as hell wasn't us. A little effort would have been nice...
This may be rock bottom for Oklahoma fans born after 2000, but I distinctly remember November 1, 1997. The day that Oklahoma went into Lincoln and got beaten senseless by rival Nebraska. But hey...we at least scored in that game... I don't even know what the answer is because I'm not sure what the problem is. Lack of fundamentals on defense is a big part of this, but is coaching fully to blame for that? It can't be...
Missouri at Florida(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was another solid performance for the Missouri defense, but the passing game is still a bit of a mess. Luther Burden's nagging injury may have something to do with that, but you can't put all of your offensive eggs in the basket of a true freshman. They need some other plan. The run game is solid, but Brady Cook still forces throws he shouldn't.
Purdue at Maryland(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Whatever Aidan O'Connell's ailment was it seems fine now. That's good news for the Boilermakers. This was a really tough loss for Maryland. To have the tying two-point conversion negated by an ineligible man downfield is a huge blow.
Louisville(-2.5) at Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Keep in mind that the Hoos got blasted at home by a team with a backup quarterback and backup running back. Brock Domann is no Malik Cunningham, but he looked like a suitable replacement. Maybe the Virginia defense just made him look that way. Virginia is a mess on both sides of the ball right now.
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Western secondary has more holes in it than a Swiss Cheese donut...
Buffalo(-2.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I usually have a pretty good read on the MAC, but not this year. The Bowling Green defense got trampled here.
Akron at Ohio(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Shocky Jacques-Louis only had 152 receiving yards in this game, so that's an improvement for the Ohio defense. The Akron defense was nowhere to be found...
Georgia Southern at Georgia State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Panthers picked off Kyle Vantrease four times in this one to hang on in a wild game. This is what rivalries are supposed to look like. Huge plays, momentum swings, and some not-so-good-natured trash talk. I'm looking at you, Oklahoma. This is what effort looks like.
South Florida at (24)Cincinnati(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cincinnati barely scored what they were favored to win by. The beleaguered Bulls (they have played four straight road games thanks to Hurricane Ian) rallied big time in this one, but Cincinnati game up with plays when they needed to.
Auburn at (2)Georgia(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Auburn's defense went off the rails in the fourth quarter, but they were tired. The offense wasn't able to get meaningful drives going to get them rest. I felt like the defense held their ground for three quarters. If Auburn could have gotten anything from the offense earlier in the game, Georgia wouldn't have got the cover.
Texas Tech at (7)Oklahoma State(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I am convinced that there is a tree in the courtyard in the middle of Lubbock that just grows quarterbacks. Behren Morton gave a valiant effort – even after being beaten senseless and winding up hobbled. Donovan Smith must have been in worse shape than we thought. Texas Tech is sure fun to watch and Oklahoma State's defense still has lapses in the back end. However, this is still definitely a top-ten team.
(11)Utah(-3.5) at (18)UCLA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I talk about DTR not getting respect and then I don't pick his team. That's my fault. The real issue here was Utah's inability to stop the run. Zach Charbonnet bowled the Utes over the entire game.
Liberty(-24.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm glad I'm not Patrick Henry. I can whiff on Liberty and live to tell about it. The Liberty gave up the ghost in the fourth quarter. I had the cover until they got bored...
Wisconsin(-9.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Was Paul Chryst holding Wisconsin back or is Northwestern really that bad? It may be a bit of both. It was nice to see Wisconsin remembering that they had wide receivers for a reason and Graham Mertz looked pretty good on some of those deep passes. We'll see how he does against a real defense, but the early returns from Wisconsin are positive.
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the Israel Abanikanda show. He set a new Pitt rushing record with 320 yards (and SIX touchdowns) in this one. Think about all of the great backs that came before him. Tony Dorsett is the obvious one, but LeSean McCoy, James Conner, Kevan Barlow, and Qadree Ollison all played there.
East Carolina at Tulane(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Tulane defense shut down a pretty good offense and Deuce Watts made a terrific catch for the Green Wave to put this out of reach.
Tulsa(-5.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How in the world did this team lose to Delaware? Tai Lavatai has taken over the reins at quarterback and likely should have before this. Tulsa just had way too many errors and defensive breakdowns to even have a prayer here.
Ball State at Central Michigan(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Ball State defense came up big again as did the tough running of Carson Steele. This is a different-looking Ball State team than the high-flying one led by Drew Plitt last year, but that's not always a bad thing.
Toledo(-5.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. NIU scored 25 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter after Toledo's starters were out of the game. Toledo locked down Harrison Waylee and Quinyon Mitchell picked off four Ethan Hampton passes by himself...returning two of those for touchdowns! Mitchell turned in one of the best defensive games in recent memory.
Kent State(-5.5) at Miami(OH): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Miami held on at home thanks to a stable of running backs that burned the clock for them.
Middle Tennessee State at UAB(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Blue Raiders allowed two separate 100-yard rushers and let Trea Shropshire run wild in the secondary for 193 yards. This was a tough game to watch for MTSU fans. Their defense was a disaster.
(3)Ohio State(-26.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was C.J. Stroud's turn to put on a show this week. Who will it be next week?
(9)Mississippi(-16.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vanderbilt is getting better. They played better than Ole Miss in the first half until a total collapse in the third quarter in which the Rebels had back-to-back scoring drives of less than 20 seconds and more than 60 yards. Some day soon, the Commodores will play a complete game. It may not be this year, but they are heading in the right direction.
(21)Washington(-13.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This qualifies as a big win for Shaun Aguano. Trenton Bourguet looked good in relief of Emory Jones. He adds another element to the offense, but it also takes one away – the quarterback run. He's about as fleet of foot as Peyton Manning. Washington had several chances to take control of this game in the second half, but the defense kept giving up chunk plays.
Duke(-3.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was quite a stand by the Georgia Tech defense in overtime after giving up two Duke touchdowns in the fourth after holding them to just two field goals in the first three quarters.
North Carolina at Miami(FL)(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
In true Tarheels' fashion, they tried to blow this. Apparently, Miami didn't want it either...
Western Kentucky at UTSA(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Roadrunners survived, but the two fourth-quarter touchdowns allowed sunk my bet.
Air Force(-10.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Gary Anderson's undying devotion to Logan Bonner likely cost the Aggies a game or three. Cooper Legas is looking like the missing link right now...
Wyoming(-3.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If the Lobos could get Miles Kendrick some help, they would be dangerous...
James Madison(-11.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's different guys coming up big for the Dukes every week...with the exception of Temple transfer Todd Centeio. He is putting up some big numbers in the Fun Belt this year.
Appalachian State(-19.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
App State must have hit the Jack-In-The-Box in downtown San Marcos the night before this game... The Mountaineers couldn't get anything going on the ground and Chase Brice's one interception went 92 yards the other way for a touchdown. This felt like a Murphy's Law game for App State.
Southern Mississippi at Troy(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'll bet Troy is happy to have Jarret Doege around right now. He came up big for the Trojans in this one. He played well enough that Troy can wait until Gunnar Watson is completely healthy – or longer – to bring him back.
Connecticut(-5.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a new bottom team in FBS...by at least 19 points. The UConn run game and defense are very good right now. If they ever get the passing game going, look out!
UTEP at Louisiana Tech(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Two years ago, Parker McNeil threw two passes for Troy, both incomplete. Now he's throwing four touchdowns in a conference game.
(5)Clemson(-20.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling good about this one at halftime, but the Boston College offense was dominated by the Clemson D long enough for the offense to cover.
Washington State at (6)USC(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I felt like Washington State played a good game, but not being able to score in the second half blew this for me. The defense played well, but the Cougars needed something from the offense. One dropped pass in particular is going to haunt them. Jenkins had a touchdown on that 3rd-and-13 if he hangs on.
South Carolina at (13)Kentucky(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I lowered this bet to two points with Levis out. Kaiya Sheron did a solid job leading the Wildcats, but Kentucky just made too many errors in this game. South Carolina got their first road win in over a year in this one. The Gamecocks didn't play particularly well, but they did capitalize on Kentucky's mistakes.
Army at (15)Wake Forest(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone higher with this one. The thing that surprised me was that Wake scored 45 points and Sam Hartman only threw one touchdown pass. I didn't think it would be the Wake run game that dominated in this one.
(16)BYU vs. Notre Dame(-3.5) at Sin City: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Mayer made the BYU defense look silly in this one and Drew Pyne keeps improving every game. He only misfired on six of his 28 attempts in this game!
(20)Kansas State(-1.5) at Iowa State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This may have been the only time I have seen a team win and not cover a -1.5 point spread. Kansas State had an explosive play to open the game, but went stagnant for the next 59 minutes. Iowa State's defense looks great, but the offense can't gain any traction without a healthy Jirehl Brock. He was nowhere near 100% in this one.
Iowa at Illinois(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This Illinois offense was a complete and total disaster after Tommy DeVito got hurt. If DeVito stays in this game, the Illini cover easily. I'm pretty sure Iowa lost more yards on penalties than they gained on offense. They may have been shut out if it weren't for Illinois turnovers in their own territory.
Texas A&M at (1)Alabama(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Aggies came within a few yards of doing it again, this time in Tuscaloosa. Jalen Milroe looked good on the ground, but his passing game was a mess at best. Bryce Young likely returns against Tennessee. If he doesn't, it's going to be a disaster for Bama.
Florida State at (14)North Carolina State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Seminoles had several chances to take this game. The Wolfpack won the battle, but they may have lost the war. Devin Leary returned to the sidelines in a sling here. Backup Jack Chambers only threw one pass in 20 minutes, so the Wolfpack clearly didn't trust him.
Coastal Carolina(-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I never thought I would see CCU shut out in the second half, but even guys like Grayson McCall need weeks off from saving the world...or at least his college football team late in the game.
(12)Oregon(-12.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Duck defense was strong enough. Arizona's...was not. They played matador to the Ducks as they had four different guys run for more than 65 yards. Ole!
Fresno State at Boise State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It took a while, but Boise finally realized that running the ball through this defense was the way to go. Fresno hung around for a while, but they got ground up in the fourth quarter.
Hawaii at San Diego State(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. I've watched a lot of bad offenses this year, but the Aztecs might be the worst. They really shouldn't have won this game at all.
Oregon State(-7.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I flipped on this one as well with Chance Nolan out. The Beavers still won in Palo Alto for the first time since 2006, but it wasn't pretty.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I'm still a little disappointed with this week. I was average in every sense of the word. I went 28-28 on the week, so I gained nothing on my -12 deficit on the season. Hey, I went 0-4 on Friday, so my Saturday was kind of a success. My head is still below water at 156-168. Hopefully, I was able to gain some points, but I have my doubts.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-4 (24-16) = 8
2. 12-10 (66-70) = -8
3. 7-9 (44-48) = -12
4. 3-3 (15-25) = -40
5. 2-2 (7-9) = -10
I ended up losing two points in the middle. Hedging the bets based on players being out did help me some, but I'm still down 62 points on the season. My bank holds just 28 points now with a smaller week coming up.
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