Champ or Chump: Buster Posey

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. Can he continue his strong start?

Some things about fantasy baseball change every season, while others are consistent from year to year. For example, breakout relievers exist every year but their names are different from season to season. You never want to use your first-round pick on a dud, but early-round duds have different reasons each year. If you played fantasy baseball for even a single season, one consistent rule will immediately become apparent to you: catchers stink.

Fantasy baseball is a game driven by offensive statistics while most catchers are selected by real teams for their defensive acumen, leading to a disconnect that can make it difficult for us to fill the position. Worse, catchers that can hit are generally moved to another position to keep their bat in the lineup and/or reduce the pounding their bodies take. Frequent days off limit their fantasy upside. It's a mess.

All of that makes it difficult to fathom how Buster Posey is currently only rostered in 59% of Yahoo! leagues. The 34-year-old is older than most fantasy managers would like, but his .277/.358/.553 triple-slash line is more than respectable for a catcher. Furthermore, his underlying metrics suggest that his numbers should be better than they currently are. He's a name that you've heard of, he's probably better than whatever scrubs are currently on your roster, and you're still not picking him up? Let's take a closer look.

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Out of Sight, Out of Mind?

Buster Posey was largely a forgotten man this draft season because he opted out of the 2020 campaign. That led to him being drafted at 251st overall per FantasyPros. It may have been different if his 2019 was anything to write home about, but he only hit .257/.320/.368 with seven homers over 445 PAs. With no power, speed, or elite batting average, Posey was purely a volume play in fantasy because the Giants continued to force him into the lineup at 1B or DH when he wasn't behind the dish. The Giants announced that they wouldn't be doing that in 2021 during spring training, so why roster him?

That logic was sound, but this author confesses to not believing them. The Giants have historically been a legacy franchise that keeps trotting older guys out there as a reward for contributions during their recent odd-year dynasty, and Posey seemed especially poised to benefit considering he was the face of the team. Heck, they still hit him third or fourth for 318 of his 445 PAs in 2019 despite his failure to crack double-digit homers.

Thus far, San Francisco has stuck with that decision. Posey has generally hit sixth or seventh this season and has not taken a position other than catcher. He's not generating fantasy value because of his team's preferential treatment of him.

Career-Best Contact Quality

Posey hasn't been any kind of slugger in years, but his Statcast metrics suggest that something has changed for him. Yes it's early, but you can't fake an average airborne exit velocity of 95.8 mph, nor can you luck into a 10.5% rate of Brls/BBE. Both of those numbers are better than anything Posey has done in the Statcast Era, as illustrated below:

The reason for this change isn't entirely clear, but there are a few possibilities. Posey started a new pregame warmup ritual that involves taking BP closer to game time so he doesn't cool down between practice and first pitch. He did more offseason work than he would have had he played in 2020, potentially allowing him to put more oomph behind his swing. He's also pulling more airborne balls with a 25% rate against a career mark of 17.2%. Posey's 9.5 SwStr% is the highest it's been since his rookie year in 2009, so maybe he's willing to add some swing-and-miss to his game for more power.

Posey's plate discipline has always been lauded, with this season's 9.4 BB% matching his career mark and fully supported by a 26.8% chase rate. His 17 K% is about five points higher than his career average, but it's still very strong by today's standards. Posey has some "excess" to trade for power. The net results have been a .293 xBA and .609 xSLG this season, numbers that put his actual stats to shame. If his .265 BABIP increases at all, it's not hard to envision Posey being a top-three catcher considering the lack of quality at the position.

Return to Glory?

The Giants have not been hitting as a team, so some kind of lineup shakeup could occur. The team is currently using Evan Longoria and the platooned Brandon Belt and Alex Dickerson in the middle of their order against RHP, and a productive Posey could take over for any of them. Unlike 2019 when Posey as a featured bat was a nostalgia act, he might just be one of the most qualified options on the team this year.

To be clear, Posey's 31.6 FB% both this year and for his career will limit his power upside and there's no guarantee that he moves up to a more prominent lineup role. On the other hand, he's a catcher who still has 1B eligibility in most formats. The bar for being a fantasy-relevant catcher is not that high, and Posey should have no problem exceeding it. As such, he's a Champ who should be rostered in a lot more leagues.

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