RADIO
We have officially made it to Week 4 and the NFL is rewarding us with a Jets-Broncos Thursday Night contest. Unfortunately, this does not jump off the page as a fantasy frenzy like the last few. However, this doesn’t mean there aren’t any fantasy points to be had.
Last week many outstanding fantasy performances were overshadowed by fantastic real-life football matchups. With games like Bills-Rams, Titans-Vikings, Cowboys-Seahawks, and Packers-Saints just to name a few. Even if you lost your fantasy week, as football fans, I think we all won.
Although Week 4 doesn’t appear to have the heavy-hitting matchups we saw last week, it certainly has a lot of great matchups for fantasy football. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to start on Thursday. Potentially with the Jets’ Head Coaching job on the line, I try to shine a light on the Brett Rypien-Sam Darnold extravaganza. Here is your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview for week four.
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Quarterbacks
Broncos
“I would be surprised if they didn't name Jeff Driskel the starter for Thursday.” That was how I opened this section when I began writing Monday. Lo and behold, I was surprised on Tuesday when Broncos Head Coach Vic Fangio named their ninth starting quarterback since winning SuperBowl 50.
I’ll be honest, to start this section I had to google Brett Rypien and read his Wikipedia page. I have to say, I was pleasantly surprised by his story as well as his film. Here is what I found. Canadian-American Brett Rypien is the nephew of former NFL QB, Super Bowl MVP and Super Bowl Champion, Mark Rypien. Brett Rypien is also the cousin-once-removed from NHL enforcer Rick Rypien, as well as the nephew of BC Lions assistant Chris Torney. With that lineage, to say athletic prowess runs is his blood is an understatement. Before the Broncos signed the 2019 undrafted free agent, Rypien was planning on gaining Canadian citizenship and trying out for the CFL. Obviously, these plans quickly changed and instead, we get to watch this man lead the Broncos on Thursday night football.
So what does this mean for his fantasy outlook? Well, coming out of college he was known for his clean release and ability to use his whole body to create velocity in his throws. He was also praised for delivering “catchable passes” despite not having pinpoint accuracy. The Broncos have spoken quite highly of the 24-year-old, specifically highlighting his football IQ and ability to understand the game. Overall, his outlook from college and the 2019 NFL preseason was very steady. What we saw in his NFL debut, was kind of a mixed bag. He began his career 8/8 for 53 yards on a nice drive into the RedZone. However, this was also paired with the Broncos recovering his fumble and two plays later, a red-zone interception. Personally, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt as the Buccaneers' defense is no joke. I suspect that if the drive ended in a field goal and not an interception, we would be looking at it as a successful debut drive. I am hoping he will be able to dink-and-dunk his way through the game against a terrible Jets’ defense, ideally being able to support some weapons for fantasy.
Jets
Sam Darnold has yet to crack 12 fantasy points this season and finish inside the top 26 quarterbacks on a week. Gross. However, much like the Broncos, he has faced some tough defenses, the Bills, the 49ers, and the Colts. The Broncos continue to have a solid defense, but it doesn’t even come close to comparing to these previous three matchups. Darnold did show some promise last game, with a fantastic scramble to hit Braxton Berrios for a touchdown, but also demonstrated that he needs help BADLY. With Jamieson Crowder, Le’Veon Bell, and even Brashad Perriman missing the last few games he has not had a lot to work with. Even if Crowder AND Perriman come back this week (which isn’t promising) I would not be playing Darnold anywhere.
Wide Receivers
Broncos
Without Courtland Sutton in the picture, this is really where I should be talking about Noah Fant. However, that comes later and we get the pleasure of talking about rookie sensation Jerry Jeudy and his friends. I feel like that is a very descriptive way of breaking down this receiving core. Jeudy has been fantastic as a rookie, racking up over 50 yards and seven or more targets in each matchup. With his nine targets last game, and the yardage being there, he has a very clear floor. If Rypien can take advantage of Jeudy’s route running to separate from the Jets’ corners, he is an interesting flex player in deep leagues.
Over the last two weeks, the next most productive receiver has been the other rookie, KJ Hamler. This has been a very pleasant surprise for anyone who grabbed the speedster late in dynasty rookie drafts. He has the second-most targets over the last two weeks at the receiver (12) and has caught six of them for 78 yards. Where things get confusing is that last week, Tim Patrick caught the only touchdown. Patrick also has six catches (on 10 targets) over the last two weeks for 67 yards. Of the two I lean Patrick, however, I would really hope none of you are looking at starting either in your line-ups this week.
Jets
As of this writing I have not seen any news on the injury status of Jamison Crowder (Hamstring) or Breshad Perriman (Ankle) for Week 4. With the quick turnaround, I do not believe either will be suiting up, however, if news breaks, here is what I would do. Firstly, I would move Perriman out of my IR spot and place him comfortably on my bench, where I would leave him for this week. As for Crowder, the one week we have seen was monstrous, collecting seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. If Crowder is to play, I would view him as a solid flex play in any PPR format, as his involvement and lack of competition for targets should land him in the top 24. However, this may differ depending on how optimistic the injury news is. If you have any doubt, I would wait for another week.
To put this next bit in perspective, after only one game, Crowder is currently the Jets’ second-most targeted receiver behind Chris Hogan and has the second-most fantasy points behind Braxton Berrios at the position. Third-year receiver Berrios from the University of Miami was drafted in 2018 as the 210th overall pick by the New England Patriots. Since losing both Perriman and Crowder, Berrios has “stepped up” as the lead receiver. Over the last two games, he has led them in targets (12), receptions (10), yards (83), and touchdowns (2). If you are playing any receiver here not named Crowder, Berrios is your guy. Chris Hogan is the other name I will bring up as he is the target leader but also failed to catch any of his three looks last game. The only fantasy option here is potentially Crowder, but if you want to live on the edge and Crowder is out, Berrios is the guy for you.
Running Backs
Broncos
Finally, a familiar name, doing familiar things, we get to talk about Melvin Gordon. With Rypien under center, they should rely heavily on the ground game, setting up Gordon for a big game. Averaging 14 carries a game, four targets, 58 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards, and 0.33 touchdowns a week so far, Gordon is THE guy in this backfield. Remember, two of his three games are against the Buccaneers and the Steelers (who held Saquon to 0.4 yards per carry Week 1). The next leading rusher is Royce Freeman with a total of six rushes. Gordon might be the safest play in this entire matchup, especially if Phillip Lindsay (toe) is unable to go. As of right now, he is looking like he will be out, and if he does play, he will be limited.
First of all, this means DO NOT START LINDSAY. Second, it guarantees that this will be Melvin Gordon’s game against a defense who has been torched by the running back position. The Jets’ are averaging 133 rushing yards against this season. Given that Freeman has six carries on the year if the Broncos are to get anywhere close to this average, Gordon will have a DAY. The Pie Shop* should be open this week for Gordon, and I would start him with confidence as an RB-two. These expectations may need to be tempered a bit if Lindsay is available, however, it shouldn’t stop you from playing him with confidence.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Jets
I am absolutely delighted to be able to discuss the living legend, Frank Gore. As tempted as I am to copy and paste an outlook for him from 15 years ago, I’ll have to do my own analysis. Gore is incredible, and thanks to Bell’s injury, he is leading the charge for this Jets team. Over the last two games, Gore has rumbled for an average of 60 yards per game against the tough defenses of San Francisco and Indianapolis. Plus, neither of these game-scripts have been positive, in fact, they have been the farthest thing from positive for a ground and pound back like Gore.
Now, Gore goes up against a defense that has allowed an average of 102 yards this season, in what should be a competitive game Thursday. Denver did hold the Tampa Backfield to a mere 68 yards last week, but with Gore’s volume and previous “success” against tough defenses, he should be a great scapegoat for any zero-RB or very injury-plagued teams.
Tight Ends
Broncos
Noah Fant has started his second season very nicely, collecting over 100 yards and two touchdowns so far. Last week, he tied his career-high of 10 targets. Although he only caught in five of them, that volume alone should make him a starter in most leagues, especially with the injuries and underwhelming performances of the “upper” tier. Well, that was his outlook based on the season so far.
With Rypien under center, we can only hope the volume will be there, however, in his one drive he did not target Fant. Take that with a grain of salt since it was only one drive. Fant is a great athlete that can always break a big play, and the Jets might be the perfect matchup for him to do that. If you think Rypien can move the offense, start him, and watch an emerging tight end talent prove why he was worthy of the 20th overall selection in the 2019 draft.
Jets
Chris Herndon. Let’s put it this way, I did not save the best for last. A popular breakout candidate for each of the last two seasons has been seriously underwhelming. Whether you want to blame this on Head Coach Adam Gase or the team as a whole, there probably won’t be a better time for Herndon to breakout since both Crowder and Perriman have been out. Unfortunately, he has failed to do just that.
The good news is that he is leading the position for his team in receptions, targets, yards, and even fumbles. The bad news is that no other tight end has caught a pass. Even with this monopoly of the catches, he only has 10 receptions on the season. From a real football standpoint, he has proven to be a solid run blocker, however, that means nothing for fantasy. It might be time to cut ties with the young tight end if you haven’t already done so.
Last week’s picks did not work out. I take full responsibility, however, since I write these previews early in the week, I think D.J. Chark’s last-minute injury played a huge role in the Jaguars’ performance. Either way, the season is still young.
With Adam Gase’s job potentially on the line, it is easy to see the narrative where the team rallies behind their coach and pulls out the win. But I am not sure if the Jets’ can do this for Gase, they have just been that bad on both sides of the ball. As much as I want to cheer for a fellow Canadian (Brett Rypien's Dad is from Calgary, AB), I can't get myself to say the Broncos win this game. Give me the home team with a desperate head coach to take down an undrafted QB in his debut game. Here are my picks:
Jets +1.0 (1-2)
Under 40.0 (1-2)
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