RADIO
Si Woo Kim struck while his irons were hot, leading the field in approach on the way to his fourth PGA Tour win at the Sony Open. His short game was not missing by any means, chipping in for birdie on the penultimate hole to end his round with two birdies which were just enough to fend off Hayden Buckley.
Andrew Putnam was our closest outright, finishing T4 and leading the field in strokes gained putting, which he is very good at. We have had back-to-back weeks with outrights in the top 5, yet neither of them ever really threatened for the win. This week we are "engaging eight" and hoping that one of our blitzers gets into the winner's circle.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. This week we are adopting the "engage eight" concept where we try to blitz the field with eight outright bets, hoping that one of our blitzers gets home. It is the NFL playoffs after all.
My personal betting card is usually reflected in this article and typically, with how odds shorten as markets adjust to incoming bets, the same Breaking $100 outrights return X8 vs the X10 I try and structure my card around. If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there.
We have seen this event uncover the most unexpected winners in the past, with long shots winning several of the last few events. This week poses an interesting challenge as the combined OWGR rating is 171 points, while last year was half that at 87. The influx of world-class players will undoubtedly change who we see at the top of the leaderboard and that will impact how we build our outright card this week. We have two mid-tier golfers that we feel are significantly undervalued and then a bunch of long shots.
Tom Kim ($5.59 @ +2200 DraftKings)
The kind Korean killer finds himself back on a golf course after taking a break a little longer than he is used to between events, missing his first cut of the season at the Sony Open. He struck the ball at the level we are now accustomed to but had an atrocious showing on the greens. Putting volatility is something we are willing to stomach at this price tag, as Kim was neutral on the greens in both starts preceding his two wins not so long ago.
There is no doubt that Kim has cemented himself as one of the premier ball strikers in the world, ranking 4th in this short season behind Tony Finau (10 rounds), Jon Rahm (8) and K.H. Lee (24). Shout out to KH's ball striking! Kim ranks fourth on approach but 37th off the tee, where he lacks distance. This week we see three courses that are all par 72s and shorter than 7,200 yards, which should see him stand a chance off the tee.
He is second in approach proximity when prorating the expected number of shots across all proximity ranges, with every range displaying immense consistency no matter where he finds himself sizzling irons from (remember the Presidents Cup 2 iron?). Kim has every tool in the bag to exceed at this course and if his putter gets rolling, it is going to be tough to stop Tom the Tank Engine from steaming to his third win in only a dozen dreamy starts.
Tom Hoge ($2.86 @ +4300 BetRivers)
If a Tom lifts the trophy this week, we will have both on our card. Tom Hoge ranks fifth in ball striking over his 28 rounds this season. He ranks second in recent approach play and fourth over the last two seasons, which means that his irons are singing songs of sweet serenity, giving him endless birdie looks at a course that he has finished 2nd, MC, and T6 in his last three visits.
Hoge evidently likes to play around La Quinta and enters the week 13th in strokes gained putting, which exceeds his baseline of 53rd. He won at Pebble Beach last year and is showing the kind of ball-striking form that results in a victory if the putter can get hot enough over the infinite amount of birdie putts he will have on route to another west-coast win.
Emiliano Grillo ($1.03 @ +12000 FanDuel)
We will keep the long shots to one paragraph a piece as Emiliano Grillo finds himself priced in the triple digits after rattling off four top-5s in his last 12 starts. His putter has gone cold over the last two events but his length and accuracy off the tee will see him in the fairway often, allowing his 27th-ranked weighted proximity to give his putter all the opportunity it needs to get back to cooking the way we know it can.
David Lipsky ($1.03 @ +13000 FanDuel)
David Lipsky is more of a maniac play, as the model has him ranked 35th, although his accuracy off the tee and weighted approach numbers both ranked inside the top-30. The maniac in me likes what Lipsky has done recently, with a T4, WD, T22, T10 the last four times he has teed it up. Lipsky was looking to win in Hawaii last week before a painful plugged lie took that chance away, inevitably making a double bogey. However, he has tasted blood and will be looking to cash in on his form and win his first PGA Tour event.
Ben Griffin ($0.82 @ +15000 DraftKings)
Since his missed cut at the opening event of the 2023 season at the Fortinet, Ben Griffin has made all seven of his weekends, finishing T3, T12, and T16 in his better performances. When he has had success, the putter has propelled his ever-reliable approach play towards the top of the leaderboard. He is gaining confidence and momentum with every round as a rookie PGA Tour professional, with a win seeming inevitable, "BECAUSE ITS FUN!"
Mark Hubbard ($0.41 @ +30000 DraftKings)
One of my favorite characters on the PGA Tour is Mark "Homeless Hubbs" Hubabrd. He is 300-1 to win this week and ranks 13th in my model. His irons are nineth-best in the field and ranks no worse than 37th in sand proximity, strokes gained putting, and make rates from 5-15 feet. He also makes the fifth-least amount of bogeys while ranking 10th on the par 5s (we get four on each course). Homeless Hubbs has been doing too many things tremendously for too long to not have won yet. This week he finds a home in the winner's circle.
Stewart Cink ($0.41 @ +30000 DraftKings)
Stewart Cink won twice in the 2021 season and has just come off a T21 at the Sony Open. In his 20 rounds this season he ranks 24th on approach and his baseline weighted approach ranking is not far off at 28th. He has a new caddie on the bag which we have seen work wonders for many winners in the past, including Cink himself. He is one of the more inconsistent golfers on tour but when Mr. Clean gets in his groove, he has no problem mopping the floor with his competition.
Satoshi Kodaira ($0.31 @ +40000 DraftKings)
As is the general theme with our longshot outright bets, we are once again honing in on Satoshi Kodaira's incredible iron play from the proximities that matter most this week. Although he is not a regular on tour, he ranks 25th in baseline weighted approach and ended his year with a trio of top-5 finishes on the Japanese tour. His accuracy off the tee will afford him a lot of prime approach opportunities, which is where he has ninja-like execution with his irons.
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Placings
>Climbs back up his chair after embracing the fetal position under his desk< We have gone 3 for 20 in the placement market at the RSM and Sony. We preached about taking it easy on the units while we had KFT graduates and a lack of data limiting the accuracy of the model and then once we ramped up to a full unit we had the two worst weeks in my betting career. Woof. Anyway, we dust ourselves off and try again this week.
Last week's results:
- Russell Henley +125 T20: L
- Corey Conners +140 T20: W
- Keegan Bradley +185 T20: L
- Adam Svensson +250 T20: L
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +100 T40: L
- Brendon Todd +125 T40: W
- Russell Knox +130 T40: L
- Lucas Glover +220 T40: L
- Sam Ryder +200 T40: L
- Kevin Streelman +200 T40: L
This week we have a few guys we want to target in a very limited capacity, hoping to take advantage of the chaos that will take place across three courses, 7-hour rounds, with a bunch of amateurs stepping on lines and getting in the way of approach shots. Although we want to get back on the horse, this is not the event to do that at, as we typically take a conservative approach to these bets, and this week is anything but that. We are betting T20/40s on all our outrights, at minimized stakes on FanDuel.
- Tom Kim T20 +125 ($5)
- Tom Hoge T20 +185 ($5)
- Mark Hubbard T20 +700 ($5)
- Stewart Cink T40 +260 ($5)
- Satoshi Kodaira T40 +330 ($5)
- Ben Griffin T40 +160 ($5)
- Emiliano Grillo T40 +155 ($5)
- David Lipsky T40 +185 ($5)
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. This week we are simply fading Si Woo Kim, who won the Sony Open last week. Andrew Putnam is one of the more consistent golfers on tour, finishing T4 last week and extending his made-cut streak to into the teens. He has also probably prepared as much for this week as Si Woo celebrated last week. Si Woo has also missed every cut in the event after his four wins.
- Andrew Putnam (-120) o Si Woo Kim (DraftKings) ($12)
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 5: Tom Kim +500 on FanDuel
I am not sure if it has to do with the strength of field or his poor putting last week, but my numbers are telling me that there is a lot of value to be had on most of Tom Kim's available bets. If he doesn't win this week, let's cash our T20 and T5 on the kind Korean killer. Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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