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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 12/25/25. Expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges, and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller's NBA Props! We have an exciting Christmas Day slate with loads of stars in action today across five games. The day kicks off with an Eastern Conference showdown where Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers will look to get their season back on track against the rival Knicks. Then, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs will look to defeat the defending champion Thunder for a third time this season. Finally, the nightcap features a thrilling Western Conference matchup between Nikola Jokic's Nuggets and Anthony Edwards' Timberwolves.
We have some key injury news to monitor when considering our prop bets, with impactful names like Luka Doncic, Evan Mobley, Alperen Sengun, and P.J. Washington on the injury report.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Thursday, December 25. Prop picks can range from individual stats, such as points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive statistics, to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Anthony Davis over 36.5 Points + Rebounds
- OG Anunoby over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Tim Hardaway Jr. over 12.5 Points
- Sam Merrill over 10.5 Points
- Klay Thompson over 10.5 Points
Anthony Davis over 36.5 Points + Rebounds (-108 FanDuel), (-120 NOVIG)
Davis crushed this prop for us earlier this week against New Orleans with 52 PR, and we are going right back to the well. He also beat this line last game with 40 PR against Denver. AD has now played at least 34 minutes in four straight games and appears to be completely recovered from the calf strain that derailed his season.
Over the last three games, he is averaging 30 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, a 58.2% field-goal percentage, and 35.1 MPG, per Hoop Central.
Despite being limited at various points throughout the season, Davis is averaging 21.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. If we look at his per-36 minutes averages, those numbers jump to 25.0 points and 13.2 rebounds.
The Golden State Warriors are a solid defensive team, but they have struggled to defend the center position. Davis has cleared 36.5 points and rebounds in three straight games, and he is in a great position to do it again.
OG Anunoby over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125 BetMGM)
Anunoby sat out the last game with ankle soreness, but he is completely off the injury report and should be full strength for this game against the Cavaliers. The rest was much needed as the Knicks faced a tough travel schedule with back-to-back games just days after winning the NBA Cup in Las Vegas.
This season, Anunoby has averaged 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. His 22.5 PRA per game average checks in just shy of this line, but he has been limited multiple times this season with injuries. His 31.5 minutes per game are well below the 36.6 minutes per game he averaged last season. Anunoby should approach that average from last season now that he is fully healthy again.
The matchup sets up very well for Anunoby, as Cleveland plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Its defensive rating has slipped all the way to 16th, and it ranks 20th or worse in all of points, rebounds, and assists allowed.
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How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of Jaylen Brown to go over 29.5 points at -110, then anyone can flip the bet and take the under on his points prop at +110. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Tim Hardaway Jr. over 12.5 Points (-115 Fanatics), (-124 NOVIG)
THJ has been on a roll lately, posting back-to-back games with more than 20 points, and now Cameron Johnson is out with an injury. Hardaway will presumably fill the void Johnson leaves in the starting lineup, and that gives him a chance to play more than 30 minutes in this game.
He's got one primary role in the Denver offense, and that is to provide floor spacing with his long-range shooting ability. The wing has attempted double-digit threes in the last two games, and he's shooting a career-best 42.5% from three-point range this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is having an insane shooting season
Career-high 40.5% on 5.9 attempts per game pic.twitter.com/2GiFQrCERF
— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) December 19, 2025
The matchup is not ideal as Minnesota defends the three-point line well, but there should be additional opportunities available with Johnson sidelined. Hardaway averages 12.7 points per game for the season, and the extra playing time should help him surpass that number despite the tough matchup.
Sam Merrill over 10.5 Points (-120 Fanatics), (-124 NOVIG)
Sam Merrill is enjoying a breakout season for the Cavaliers, averaging a career-high 13.8 points per game. He had made his way back into the starting lineup for four consecutive games before a hand injury cost him significant time.
He returned from the injury earlier this week and struggled off the bench in his first game back. However, he was back in the starting lineup in the last game and looked as good as ever with an 18-point performance.
Cavs with Sam Merrill this season: 11-3
Cavs without Sam Merrill this season: 6-11
He's up to a career-high 13.8 PPG on 44.2% from 3. pic.twitter.com/MjqiFLdpzc
— Greg Swartz (@GregSwartzBR) December 24, 2025
Evan Mobley is somewhat surprisingly listed as questionable for this game. He was originally diagnosed with a calf strain that was expected to keep him out 2-4 weeks, and we are still shy of the most optimistic projection.
Even if Mobley can play in this game, he is likely to be on a minutes restriction of some kind, and his return wouldn't necessarily remove Merrill from the starting lineup. De'Andre Hunter has expressed a preference to play off the bench, and the Jaylon Tyson starting experiment appears to be over. Presumably, Mobley slides in for Dean Wade, and Merrill hangs onto his spot.
If Mobley is unable to play in the game, this line feels like a bargain. Go ahead and jump in now before the news, because Merrill should play a significant role regardless.
Klay Thompson over 10.5 Points (-124 DraftKings), (-110 NOVIG)
Klay Thompson has had an inconsistent season with a fluctuating role, but there are a few reasons to back him on Thursday. He returns to a familiar arena where he has seen major success in his Hall of Fame career. Thompson has averaged 19.8 points in four games against his former team, and he has scored 10.5 points in each of them.
There is also reason to believe Thompson could see an extended role tonight; P.J. Washington is listed as questionable after missing the last game with an injury, and Max Christie is expected to return after missing the last two games with an illness. Even if both players can suit up, there is no guarantee either will be full strength.
Thompson rested on Tuesday on the second half of a back-to-back and should enter this game with fresh legs. He scored 20 points in a season-high 31 minutes earlier this week with Washington active. If Washington were to get ruled out for this game, there would be massive value on this line of 10.5 points for Thompson.
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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