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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA prop bets for 12/23/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Since the NBA takes a day off tomorrow on Christmas Eve, we have one of the most loaded nights of basketball in the Association this year with 14 games on the schedule.
If you've been following me and my NBA betting content this year, you probably already know that I have a hard time only sharing my top five or six betting props with you. If I am going to dig in and research the slate, I can't help but want to share my entire betting card, which is exactly what I am going to do today with 12 NBA player props for your consideration. Consider it my Christmas gift to all of you!
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Tuesday, December 23rd. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Josh Hart over 6.5 Assists
- Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists
- Jabari Smith Jr. over 23.5 Points, Rebounds + Assists
- Matas Buzelis over 13.5 Points
- Egor Demin over 9.5 Points
- Bub Carrington over 14.5 Points and Assists
- Ryan Rollins over 4.5 Assists
- Sandro Mamukelashvili over 20.5 Points + Rebounds
- Naji Marshall over 13.5 Points
- Jake LaRavia over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Maxime Raynaud over 7.5 Rebounds
- Toumani Camara over 12.5 Points
Josh Hart over 6.5 Assists (-126 DK, -128 NOVIG)
I'll try to keep my analysis for these props as short as I can, since we have so many to get through. This one is simple! The Knicks are going to be without point guard Jalen Brunson tonight, as well as other key guards, OG Anunoby, and Miles McBride.
Tyler Kolek and Jordan Clarkson are going to have to play a lot more minutes, but Hart is likely to see a few more minutes and help facilitate the offense more than usual. In the only two games that Brunson has missed this season, Hart passed out nine and 10 dimes. Don't be fooled by his recent game log (he hasn't gone for 7+ in two weeks) because this situation tonight is an exception with the Knicks being so short-handed in the backcourt.
Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists (+124 FD)
Garland finished with 10 assists against Charlotte last night in a much-needed win for the Cavs. After the game, he confirmed that he plans to play tonight against the Pelicans, despite not playing in a back-to-back set this season yet.
The Cavs really need his offense and play-making with Evan Mobley out, and it's a good sign that he's been able to play well lately and avoid further injury. His passing has been fantastic, as he's averaging 8.25 assists over his last four games, hitting this prop in three of those.
With the Pelicans allowing the second-most assists to the point guard position, I like Garland's chances at getting eight dimes tonight, and we are getting some great odds on this number right now.
Jabari Smith Jr. over 23.5 Points, Rebounds + Assists (-108 FD, -121 NOVIG)
I am going to keep riding the Jabari Smith Jr. train tonight, even with Tari Eason back in the rotation. Eason played only 15 minutes in his first game back and is likely going to be eased into the rotation. Meanwhile, the Houston starters continue to log heavy minutes with their big four (starters minus Josh Okogie) all playing 36 or more minutes against the Kings on Sunday.
Smith has been playing well lately, going over his PRA prop in six straight games, including 32 PRA against the Clippers when they last faced off two weeks ago.
Matas Buzelis over 13.5 Points (-113 DK, -119 NOVIG)
You hate to chase a performance by one player against a team when they play two times in a row, but Buzelis had arguably his best game of the season on Sunday against the Hawks, pouring in 28 points on 10-11 shooting.
Remember how I said Matas Buzelis runs on confidence?
Well, his confidence must be pretty high now, with him now having two straight games with 24+ points
The fluidity with which he moves for his size & height still tells me that there’s more to tap intopic.twitter.com/M4tTdsU9hr https://t.co/Oo1VfO3f4C
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) December 21, 2025
He had 24 points against the Cavs in the game before that. While his game log is a bit of a roller coaster this year, we know the second-year player is uber talented and can score from everywhere on the floor. His points prop is so low compared to his recent surge that I can't help but jump on the over here again. Even if his shooting cools off a bit, this feels like a number he can eclipse as long as he plays around 30 minutes.
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Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Egor Demin over 9.5 Points (+100 FAN, -102 NOVIG)
Sometimes it takes a rookie a while to get comfortable in the league, and the Nets' rookie point guard may finally be ready to be more aggressive on offense if his recent performance is any indication.
Egor Demin over the last three games:
15.7 PPG
3.3 RPG
2.3 APG
1.3 SPG
47.2% FG
37.5% 3P
80.0% FT
28.0 MPGUnderrated rookie. 🔥 https://t.co/Nvro3ZLcsm pic.twitter.com/RlmCeGJSs4
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 22, 2025
Demin's line is just too low for this spot tonight, as the Sixers are not a great defensive team. He had 23 points against them the last time he faced Philly, and he's shooting the ball a lot more often of late. He's taking a lot of threes, and he only needs to hit a few of them to get over this low bar.
Bub Carrington over 14.5 Points and Assists (-111 DK)
He's not a rookie, but Carrington is showing signs of breaking out in his sophomore season for the Wizards. He's cleared this mark in six straight games, averaging over 22 points and assists in that stretch.
Tonight, he gets the Hornets in the second half of a back-to-back. Charlotte just gave up 139 points to the Cavs last night, allowing both Garland and Donovan Mitchell to have huge performances.
Ryan Rollins over 4.5 Assists (+110 NOVIG)
I am puzzled by the price on Rollins here, considering he has five or more assists in nine out of his last 10 games. Yes, he's moved to the bench recently, with the Bucks opting to play bigger with Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis in the starting lineup.
However, Rollins continues to see minutes in the mid-20s and is anchoring the second unit. If anything, staggering his minutes with Kevin Porter Jr. has made his production a bit more predictable, especially his assists, since he's the primary ball-handler for much of the time that he's on the floor.
Sandro Mamukelashvili over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-105 FAN, -128 NOVIG)
The big man we affectionately know as "Mamu" should start tonight for the Raptors as Jakob Poeltl is out again with his back troubles. Mamu is averaging 22.6 points and boards across four starts this season, and Miami allows the second-most rebounds to opposing centers.
Naji Marshall over 13.5 Points (+100 DK, -102 NOVIG)
With 15 points last night, Marshall covered his points prop for the eighth straight game in a row! I was on him last night, and I am not about to stop betting on this prop until the books finally move his number up! He's starting and playing around 30 minutes per night; he doesn't need any plays run for him or to be fed shots; he can get 15 a night organically just by playing his game.
Jake LaRavia over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108 NOVIG)
The Lakers are getting Deandre Ayton back, but will be without Rui Hachimura and Luka Doncic, as well as Austin Reaves (maybe - he is still questionable). LaRavia should start for L.A. and has posted 22 and 29 PRA in his last two games. He's a great offensive rebounder and a solid passer, so he doesn't need to score a lot to get over this number.
Maxime Raynaud over 7.5 Rebounds (-114 NOVIG)
The rookie center has gone over this prop in six of his last seven games, including three straight double-doubles.
Maxime Raynaud has been a bright spot for the Sacremento Kings pic.twitter.com/sWvuD7W3nR
— Basketball University (@UofBasketball) December 19, 2025
He's an important part of the Sacramento lineup now and proving that his college numbers (20-10) were no fluke. The Kings should need his size to deal with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, so if he avoids foul trouble and plays his usual allotment of minutes, he should soar over eight boards.
Toumani Camara over 12.5 Points (-120 DK, -125 NOVIG)
Camara finished with just eight points last night, but the Portland starters were benched down the stretch as things got out of hand. He struggled shooting the ball earlier this season, but he's been much more consistent recently and has 13 or more points in eight of his last ten games.
I think Portland can hang with Orlando tonight, who also played and got thoroughly trounced last night by the Warriors. The Magic are down several starters, too, and this one could be a close, high-scoring affair.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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