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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 12/11/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller's NBA Props! After a couple of days of NBA Cup Knockout rounds, we are back to a normal schedule today with four regular-season games on tap.
Nikola Jokic, Jaylen Brown, and James Harden are just a few of the stars who will be taking the floor this evening. Of course, we also have several injuries to monitor, with Portland and Sacramento both looking like they will be shorthanded this evening.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Thursday, December 11th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already. It's time to dive in!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Deni Avdija over 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-107 DraftKings)
- Russell Westbrook over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-121 DraftKings)
- Trey Murphy III over 22.5 Points (-104 FanDuel)
- Jordan Walsh over 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-121 DraftKings)
- Aaron Holiday over 7.5 Points (-110 BetMGM)
Deni Avdija over 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-107 DraftKings)
The breakout for Blazers forward Deni Avdija began late last season, when he closed the year with five straight games of at least 25 points. He has carried that momentum into this season, averaging a career-best 25.8 points and 6.3 assists while adding 7.2 rebounds per game (39.3 PRA). His production has climbed even higher since Jrue Holiday went down with an injury. In 12 games without Holiday, Avdija has averaged 25.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists (41.6 PRA). Tonight, the Blazers will also be down starting center Donovan Clingan, which should boost Avdija's rebound chances even further.
Deni Avdija over the last 4 games:
37 PTS — 6 REB — 8 AST
31 PTS — 19 REB — 10 AST
25 PTS — 8 REB — 14 AST
27 PTS — 8 REB — 7 AST https://t.co/l7pY47PeAa pic.twitter.com/yE11vHWUYK— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 4, 2025
A matchup with the Pelicans sets up perfectly for another big performance from the 24-year-old forward. New Orleans ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and allows the third-most points and assists in the league, plus the eighth-most rebounds. Avdija has racked up at least 47 PRA in three of his last five games, and he has a great chance to reach that level of production again tonight.
Russell Westbrook over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-121 DraftKings)
Sacramento guard Russell Westbrook is coming off a massive performance against the Pacers, where he went for 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 14 assists. He has a great chance for an encore performance tonight against his former team with another high-usage teammate out.
Russel Westbrook 24 PTS, 12 REB, 14 AST, 2 STL, 10/16 FG, 2/3 3FG, 67.6% TS vs Pacers https://t.co/xYlTHeMSmZ pic.twitter.com/uQsF5Mwepa
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) December 9, 2025
Zach LaVine has already been ruled out for this game, and Dennis Schroder is listed as doubtful for tonight after he missed the last six games. The shorthanded backcourt should give Russell Westbrook another opportunity for a heavy workload, allowing him to fill up the stat sheet yet again.
Westbrook has already tormented Denver twice this season for huge statistical performances. In the first meeting of the season, Westbrook posted 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 assists. He was even better in the second meeting, going for 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists.
Trey Murphy III over 22.5 Points (-104 FanDuel)
Pelicans guard Trey Murphy has been on a scoring surge since returning from an elbow injury that caused him to miss a pair of games. With Zion Williamson sidelined, Murphy has been taking over as the focal point of the New Orleans offense. Over his last four games, he's averaged 27.3 points and has cleared this 22.5 line in three of those four outings.
Tonight's matchup against Portland offers a significant boost in pace for New Orleans, as the Blazers play at the third-fastest tempo in the league. They also rank just 20th in defensive efficiency and have allowed the sixth-most points in the league.
New Orleans could get Jordan Poole back this evening, but he has missed significant time and would likely be limited. He was also coming off the bench before his injury, making it even more unlikely his return would have a substantial impact on Murphy.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Jordan Walsh over 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-121 DraftKings)
Boston has tried a couple of different options to fill the wing position vacated by Jayson Tatum this season, and it looks like they have found their guy. Jordan Walsh has started each of the last 12 games and is really starting to settle into the role now. Lockdown perimeter defense is what initially kept him on the court, but now Walsh has been contributing in other areas as well. In those 12 starts, he has averaged 9.0 points and 5.5 rebounds. There have been a handful of standout performances lately that really make this prop attractive, and they have all come over his last five outings.
During those five games, Walsh is averaging 14.0 points and 6.8 rebounds, clearing this 13.5 line in each outing.
Jordan Walsh over his last 3 games:
— 22 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL, 8-8 FG
— 8 PTS, 6 REB, 1 STL, 4-4 FG
— 14 PTS, 11 REB, 2 STL, 4-7 FG3-0. pic.twitter.com/hxwCANNSrl
— CelticsMuse (@CelticsMuse) December 5, 2025
Tonight's matchup against Milwaukee also sets up favorably for Walsh, as they are still without Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have averaged 120 points allowed in the last two games without their superstar, who happens to be their best defender and best rebounder.
Walsh has seen his court time expand as he has settled into his starting role, playing at least 26 minutes in three straight contests. He should be in line for a similar workload tonight, which should give him plenty of runway to cruise over his PR line.
Aaron Holiday over 7.5 Points (-110 BetMGM)
Rockets guard Aaron Holiday has earned himself more playing time with his play over the past several weeks. Recently, he has even been in the closing lineup in favor of Josh Okogie and Reed Sheppard. Over his last 11 games, Holiday has averaged 12.0 points and cleared this line in nine of those contests.
Tonight's matchup sets up favorably for him to continue his recent hot stretch. The Clippers have struggled mightily on the defensive end this season, ranking just 25th in efficiency.
Holiday has been playing significant fourth-quarter minutes no matter the score. This game has only a 7.5-point spread, but it's nice to have that protection if the game gets out of hand. The role looks solid all the way around, and he's been clearing this line with extreme consistency. Holiday should be able to do it again in a plus matchup.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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