MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/16/2025)

September 16, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/16/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Romy Gonzalez, Juan Soto, Junior Caminero and Jackson Chourio.

We have 16 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" With the NFL season full steam ahead, we finally have a break in the games, and what better thing to bet with all that NFL money you won this weekend from RotoBaller content than some home runs? I know I will be. We have some favorable home run bets to discuss on this massive MLB slate.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, September 16, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/16/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, September 16:

• Romy Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
• Juan Soto, New York Mets
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers

Romy Gonzalez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+501 DraftKings)

My first home run bet of the night was a tough choice between Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder, as they both look exceptional in this spot. I ended up siding with Gonzalez because he is less of a platoon bat than Refsnyder and should get a full allotment of at-bats tonight.

The Red Sox will host Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics at Fenway Park tonight. Spring has allowed a 1.56 HR/9, 45.4% FB, and a 32.7% Hard Hit this season. Over the last thirty days, Springs has allowed a 1.69 HR/9, 37.0% FB, and a 32.5% Hard Hit.

Right-handed bats have been a problem for him all season. He has allowed 25 of his 28 home runs to righties, along with a .451 SLG, .213 ISO, 11.2% Brl, and a 37.0% Hard Hit. We want to target righties in this stadium because of the Green Monster, so this is a perfect spot to go home run hunting.

Gonzalez has been an elite bat for the Red Sox this season, especially against left-handed pitching and at home. He is slashing .347/.394/.629 with a 1.023 OPS against lefties this season, and at home, he is slashing .343/.364/.542 with a .906 OPS. He is also the hottest bat in this Bosox lineup. He has a .625 SLG and a 1.025 OPS over the last ten days.

Springs has given up 18 of his home runs to right-handed hitters this season off of two pitches, which he throws 75% of the time to the split. His four-seamer has allowed eight home runs, a .492 SLG, and a .223 ISO, and his changeup has allowed 10 home runs, a .379 SLG, and a .172 ISO. Gonzalez has a .449 SLG and a .172 ISO against the changeup and a .684 SLG and a .316 ISO against the four-seamer.

Look for Gonzalez to lift something over the Green Monster tonight and get us on the board on Dinger Tuesday.

Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+408 DraftKings)

Juan Soto has been phenomenal in his inaugural season in Queens. He and the Mets will be squaring off against Michael King and the San Diego Padres at Citi Field this evening.

Soto has been on fire and continues to hit everything. Over the last ten days, he has been slashing .300/.356/.575 with a .931 OPS and three home runs. He has a .567 SLG and 30 home runs against right-hand pitching this season. He has 19 home runs and a .498 SLG at Citi Field.

FORGET THAT!

JUAN SOTO HAS A 40/30 SEASON! pic.twitter.com/oXY9txGUwg

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 13, 2025

Michael King struggled with the long ball in his return from the IL. He allowed a 5.71 xFIP, 3.60 HR/9, 56.3% FB, and a 31.3% Hard Hit in his first start. He has allowed an 11.6% Brl and a 38.4% Hard Hit to left-handed hitters this season.

King has allowed all three of his home runs to lefties off his four-seamer, including a .792 SLG and a .458 ISO. He throws a changeup and a sinker to lefties as well. Soto crushes all three of these pitches. He has a .689 SLG and a .400 ISO off the four-seamer, a .511 SLG and a .267 ISO off the changeup, and a .391 SLG and a .217 ISO off the sinker.

Soto stays hot for us in this matchup and cashes a home run bet.

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 FanDuel)

I am writing up my entire best ball team today for home runs, so I am hopeful we can make a push for the top ten tonight in my finals. Jose Berrios and the Toronto Blue Jays will oppose the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Berrios has been a home run target for us all season, as he has allowed 24 home runs in 2025. Over the last 30 days, Berrios has allowed a 2.00 HR/9, 30.0% FB, and a 43.3% Hard Hit. He will now head to Tampa on a warm day in a minor league ballpark.

Berrios has severe reverse splits as right-handed hitters have crushed him this season. He has allowed 17 home runs this season to righties, including a .498 SLG, .242 ISO, 14.6% Brl, and a 48.1% Hard Hit. There is a right-handed bat in this lineup that has 44 home runs this season that will be a problem for Berrios.

Junior Caminero launches his 44th homer of the season! pic.twitter.com/Xk8I1HOMcM

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Junior Caminero has been elite this season in every capacity, especially at his home ballpark. This season against right-hand pitching, Caminero is slashing .268/.306/.557 with 31 home runs. He is even better at home, as he is slashing .318/.355/.614 with 22 home runs.

I love this spot for Caminero to leave the yard.

Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel)

My last home run bet of the night will take place in a matchup between the Brewers and Angels. Caden Dana will toe the rubber for the Halos at American Family Field in Milwaukee tonight.

Dana has only made a handful of starts to this point in the big leagues, but has shown that he is prone to giving up the long ball. On the season, he has a 2.30 HR/9, 41.0% FB, and a 35.0% Hard Hit. He has allowed four home runs this season in 15.2 innings pitched.

Right-handed hitters have given Dana fits to this point in his early career. He has allowed three home runs with a .750 SLG, .417 ISO, 10.0% Brl, and a 50.0% Hard Hit. His Slider has been the main culprit to righties as he has allowed a .636 SLG and a .364 ISO against it. His four-seamer has been no better, with a .600 SLG and a .300 ISO against it.

Chourio is finally healthy and is red hot for this Brewers team. Over the last ten days, he has been slashing .278/.341/.500 with two home runs. He has a .447 SLG and 14 home runs against righties this season, and at home, he has a .421 SLG and nine home runs.

Chourio crushes the slider, which Dana throws as his main secondary pitch. Chourio has a .729 SLG, .400 ISO, and six home runs on the slider this season. I love Chourio in this spot.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis