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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/9/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz, and Trevor Story.
We have a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, giving us several opportunities to find value in our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include red-hot sluggers such as Trevor Story, Elly De La Cruz, and Juan Soto. Each player I chose today is either swinging a hot bat, is in an exploitable matchup, or has a great price.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/9/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, July 9:
- Aaron Judge (+185)
- Juan Soto (+210)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+330)
- Elly De La Cruz (+350)
- Trevor Story (+425)
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+185 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Judge is having a historic season, slashing .360/.467/.738 with 34 home runs in 407 plate appearances. The Yankees superstar is on a roll lately, homering five times in the last eight games. This puts his July slash at .440/.559/1.000 with five homers.
2025 Aaron Judge has tied the Yankees record for HRs before the All-Star break with 34.
That record was set by 2024 Aaron Judge… who broke 2022 Aaron Judge’s record. pic.twitter.com/xhuzRKab4a
— YankeesMuse (@YankeesMuse) July 9, 2025
This is an exploitable matchup against Logan Evans, who has a 4.69 xERA on the season, featuring a below-average 9.2% barrel rate. The numbers are even worse against righties like Judge, as highlighted by a 2.08 HR/9 (0.75 HR/9 vs. lefties).
Even though we have to pay a hefty price on Judge to homer at (+185) odds, we'll take a shot because of his current form, along with the strong matchup vs. Evans.
With that in mind, let's ride with Judge to keep the good times rolling and hit his 35th homer of the season in this favorable spot.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+210 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Soto is currently slashing .263/.396/.508 with 21 home runs in 397 plate appearances. This looks like a slightly below-average season by Soto's lofty standards, but if we dig a little deeper, we see that this is one of the hottest hitters in baseball.
Juan Soto since June 1st:
33 G
.324 AVG (36 for 111)
.468 OBP (29 BB, 1 HBP)
1.153 OPS
4 2B
12 HR
24 RBI
29 R
3 SBJuan Soto has been dominating🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/GM2RoREgJr
— NYM Stats (@nym_stats) July 8, 2025
It's impressive to see that 12 of Soto's 21 home runs have come since June 1st. There's a good chance that he can maintain this hot streak in tonight's matchup against Orioles righty Tomoyuki Sugano. This pitcher has had issues with the long ball, allowing 2.23 HR/9 against lefties (1.4 HR/9 against righties).
That's bad news against one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Even at (+210) odds, Soto looks like a strong play given his current form and Sugano's struggles vs. lefties.
Ride with Soto to hit his 22nd homer of the season in this spot.
Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Witt is currently slashing .296/.346/.503 with 13 home runs in 399 plate appearances. The Royals superstar has been rolling in July, featuring an elite 209 wRC+. We've seen Witt hit a homer twice in his last three games, so there's a chance that this is the early stages of a power binge.
The month of July belongs to Bobby Witt Jr.
This July, so far (7 games):
.429/.452/.679 in 31 PA
12 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 SB
10 R, 7 RBIsCareer in July (75 games):
.375/.404/.641 in 325 PA
113 H, 18 2B, 18 HR, 19 SB
58 R, 62 RBIs— Jake Eisenberg (@JakeEisenberg_) July 8, 2025
This is a good matchup at home against Pirates lefty Bailey Falter, who is allowing an 8.4% barrel rate with a 1.26 HR/9 against right-handed hitters.
That plays right into Witt's strengths, as he's mashed lefties this season, featuring a 133 wRC+.
When you consider how hot Witt has been in July, along with the fact that Falter gives up hard contact, you come away liking the value on the Royals superstar at (+330) odds here. This is a superstar who has finally found his groove at the plate.
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Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)
De La Cruz has a .276/.348/.484 with 18 home runs in 381 plate appearances. The Reds star hasn't hit a home run since June 24th, but this feels like a good time to break the drought, given the park factors and pitcher matchup.
Shortstops in MLB with 15+ HR and 55+ RBI:
Elly De La Cruz
Trevor Story— Justin (@JustinMLB) July 9, 2025
For one, this game is being played at Great American Ball Park, which is the most homer-friendly environment in MLB. We've seen De La Cruz put up a 128 wRC+ at home -- that number jumps to a 144 wRC+ at home vs. right-handers -- so you have to love the spot here.
That's because the Reds are going up against Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara, who has had a tougher time against lefties (1.45 HR/9) compared to righties (0.84 HR/9).
The veteran right-hander has struggled mightily of late, combining for 12 earned runs allowed in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings. That's bad news in such a hitter's park like Great American, where fly balls consistently turn into home runs.
Considering these factors, it's hard not to like De La Cruz to hit his 19th home run of the season tonight.
Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Story has had an underwhelming season overall, as highlighted by a .252/.291/.414 slash with 15 home runs in 365 plate appearances. However, this includes respectable batted ball metrics, featuring a 10.0% barrel rate. On top of that, Story has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately.
The veteran shortstop has homered three times in his last five games. Since May 28th, Story has bumped up his batting average from .208 to .252, which sums up how red-hot he's been at the plate.
This @RedSox fan only needed one hand to catch Trevor Story's HR 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DdIEk6P1fW
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025
This is a fantastic matchup against Rockies lefty Antonio Senzatela, who is quite possibly the worst pitcher in all of baseball right now. The veteran has registered an abysmal 6.59 xERA on the season, including an 8.6% barrel rate.
On top of that, Senzatela has given up more homers to righties (2.03 HR/9) compared to lefties (0.97 HR/9). That feeds right into Story's skill set, as he punishes lefties, featuring a 105 wRC+ against them (86 wRC+ vs righties).
Then you factor in that this game is being played at Fenway Park, which is a hitter-friendly environment. Add that up and you get a nice value on the red-hot shortstop at a (+425) price.
Let's roll with Story to hit his 16th home run of the season against his former team.
Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.
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