MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/31/2025)

July 31, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/31/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Giancarlo Stanton, Brandon Lowe, Noelvi Marte

You can tell it's the MLB trade deadline, as we have a lousy three games on today's slate. We have two games in parks that are top-10 in baseball for home runs, as well as some pitchers that we can attack for the long ball. Although there are only three games, we have some home run bets that I have complete confidence in.

I will provide my three favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than three home runs on today, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 31, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/31/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, July 31:

• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 FanDuel)

We start our journey today in the lone matinee game at Yankee Stadium between the Rays and the Yankees. It is starting to cool off on the East Coast, as it will be in the low 80s this afternoon in New York.

Ryan Pepiot will toe the rubber against the Yankees this afternoon, bringing his 3.94 xFIP, 1.50 HR/9, 42.3% FB, and 34.8% Hard Hit with him. None of these numbers screams attackable, but I am buying into some of the recent trends I am seeing from him. Over his last thirty days, Pepiot has a 2.10 HR/9, 44.7% FB, and a 35.1% Hard Hit.

Pepiot has shown more reverse splits this season than most. He has allowed a .257 AVG, .209 ISO, .466 SLG, and 13 home runs to right-handed hitters. If we dig deeper, he has struggled much more during day games, allowing a .226 AVG, .215 ISO, .441 SLG, and a 1.7 HR/9. I wonder if the Yankees have a power righty in their lineup?

No, I am not talking about Aaron Judge, although if he were healthy, this would most likely be the bet today. I am talking about Giancarlo Stanton, who has been tremendous this season against right-handed pitching. Stanton is slashing .291/.371/.544 with a .915 OPS against right-hand pitching this season. He has six home runs in 79 plate appearances against righties this season.

Giancarlo Stanton over his last 16 games:

.302 AVG
7 HR
16 RBIpic.twitter.com/XlWogZYUa3

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) July 26, 2025

As we dig deeper into the matchup and the pitch mix, we find out that Pepiot has given up 15 home runs against his four-seamer and slider. His four-seamer has a .509 SLG and 11 home runs against it, and his slider has a .514 SLG and four home runs against it. Stanton this season has a .455 wOBA and a .240 ISO against the four-seamer and a .438 wOBA and a .300 ISO against the slider from right-hand pitching.

Everything lines up here tonight for Stanton to leave the yard.

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings)

Our second bet comes from the same game, and to be honest, both of the Lowes look outstanding in this matchup. Marcus Stroman will get the rock for the Yankees, and he is a shell of his old self.

Since his return to the big leagues, Stroman has had a 4.95 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, 34.8% FB, and a 36.0% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, Stroman has a 1.86 HR/9, 46.4% FB, and a 40.0% Hard Hit. The fly-ball rate is the most alarming thing here for Stroman, as this is usually a guy who allows a ton of ground balls.

Stroman has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters this season. He is allowing a .298 AVG, .262 ISO, .559 SLG, and five home runs against the split this season. Yankee Stadium has not been Stroman's friend as he is allowing a .203 ISO, .494 SLG, and a 1.9 HR/9 at home this season.

Brandon Lowe returned from the IL yesterday, and I love this spot for him. He is slashing .292/.344/.526 with a .870 OPS this season against right-hand pitching. He has 16 home runs against righties this season. He also has a .500 SLG, .857 OPS, and one home run in 12 at-bats against Stroman in his career.

Brandon Lowe rips a double with an EV of 101.9 in his second AB since being activated from the IL to give the Rays an early 1-0 lead. This lineup has been sorely missing his bat.
#Raysup

pic.twitter.com/bRM92BJItf

— Off The Trop (@OffTheTrop) July 30, 2025

The pitch that has given Stroman the most trouble this season is his cutter. He has allowed a .891 SLG and four of his six home runs off this pitch. Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe both smash this pitch. Brandon Lowe has a .488 wOBA and a .320 ISO against cutters from righties this season, and Josh Lowe has a .442 wOBA and a .364 ISO against it.

I am betting on Brandon Lowe to go deep tonight as my favorite home run bet of the night.

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Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

Our last bet of the day is going to be a little off the wall in Noelvi Marte. Carlos Carrasco will head to Great American Ball Park to face the Reds in his Atlanta Braves debut. It will be cool at first pitch with temperatures in the upper 70s, but there is a slight wind blowing out to right field.

Cookie Carrasco has not pitched in the big leagues for over a month, but this season, he is allowing a 4.47 xFIP, 1.97 HR/9, 40.6% FB, and a 36.4% Hard Hit. He has allowed seven home runs in his eight games this season.

Right-handed hitters have hit five of those eight home runs, including a .463 wOBA, .740 SLG, and a 50.0% Hard Hit. In 2024, Cookie allowed a .525 SLG and ten home runs against the split, so there is a big enough sample size to look into his reverse splits.

Marte is the hottest right-handed hitter in this Reds lineup. Over his last 56 plate appearances, Marte is slashing .308/.339/.596 with a .935 OPS and four home runs against the split.

Alright, I spoke too soon. Noelvi Marte is in RF today, so hopefully he still plays regularly. https://t.co/AqBMRdjmFY

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 30, 2025

Carrasco has allowed seven of his home runs off his slider and four seamer this season. His slider has a .742 SLG and three home runs against it, and his four-seamer has a .749 SLG and four home runs against it. Marte has a .256 wOBA, .227 ISO, and one home run against the slider and a .519 wOBA, .353 ISO, and one home run against the four-seamer.

I love Marte to pull something out of Great American "Small" Park tonight.

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