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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Memorial Day, everyone. We have 12 games on tap to cap off our Memorial Day weekend. I have been red hot in this article. Last week, I hit two of four home run bets in both articles for a +4.15 unit week. Let’s see if we can continue the streak and hit at least two of our four dinger bets.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. If you came here looking for popular players, this article is not for you today. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props for MLB games on Monday, May 26, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/26/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, May 26:
- Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs
- Jordan Beck, Colorado Rockies
- Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox
- Kody Clemens, Minnesota Twins
Dansby Swanson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
We start our Memorial Day off at Wrigley Field with a matchup between the Cubs and the Rockies. The Cubs will face rookie southpaw Carson Palmquist. The wind is blowing in, and it will be in the upper 60s this afternoon in Wrigley. These are pitching conditions, but the Cubs have shown little concern for pitching conditions this season at home.
Although the sample size is limited, Palmquist is a well below-average pitcher. He has a 6.82 xFIP, 6.2% SwStr%, 2.16 HR/9, 36.8% FB%, and a 36.8% Hard Hit%. Righties have already found a rhythm against him. He has a .418 wOBA, .607 SLG, 1.3 HR/9, 38.7% FB%, and a 35.5% Hard Hit% this season against them.
The Cubs are full of right-handed bats with power, but none profiled better than Dansby Swanson. Swanson has a .351 wOBA and a .290 ISO against LHP this season. He has a .176 ISO over his last 18 plate appearances. As always with me, it is more than that, so let's dig into the pitch data.
Palmquist has gotten hit hard by two pitches: his four-seamer and sinker. His sweeper has been a pretty good pitch for him, and he's throwing it 38% of the time. He throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined 50% of the time. His four-seamer has a .641 wOBA and a .923 SLG, and his sinker has a .460 wOBA and a .460 SLG. Swanson crushes these two pitches.
Four-seamer: 31 pitches, .1029 wOBA, .1500 ISO, 31 LA, 3 HRs
Sinker: 37 pitches, .440 wOBA, .125 ISO, 1 LA, 0 HR
I love what I am seeing for Swanson to get a hold of one to start us off right this Memorial Day.
Jordan Beck OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 DraftKings)
Our second bet will be in the same game with the Rockies squaring off against Jameson Taillon. Taillon has allowed 14 home runs already in 2025. The Rockies are not a team we often target away from Coors, but this is one of the best home run targets in Taillon; we can’t pass it up.
Taillon has a 4.09 xFIP, 2.22 HR/9, and a 44.2% FB% this season. He has allowed a 2.77 HR/9, 48.6% FB%, and a 37.8% Hard Hit% over his last two starts. Although Taillon has usually had traditional splits, he has shown reverse splits this year. Righties have hit eight home runs, .368 wOBA, .578 SLG, 50.6% FB%, and a 32.1% Hard Hit%. They will be our target.
Beck has been a very trendy player over the last few weeks and has been a topic of discussion in our RotoBaller Discord. Beck has been tearing up right-handed pitching all season. He has a .363 wOBA and a .274 ISO in 2025. Over his last 27 plate appearances, he has a .418 wOBA, .346 ISO, and a .654 SLG.
Taillon has given up 13 of his 14 home runs against three pitches this season: his four-seamer, sweeper, and cutter. His four-seamer has five home runs against it and a .534 SLG, his sweeper has four home runs against it and a .652 SLG, and his cutter has four home runs against it and a .700 SLG.
Two players in particular profiled very well here, and if not for the weather, I would have bet on both Ezequiel Tovar and Beck; however, I ultimately chose Beck. Below are his numbers against those three pitches.
Four-Seamer: 33 pitches, .571 wOBA, .167 ISO, 28 LA, 0 HR
Sweeper: 23 pitches, .402 wOBA, .500 ISO, 24 LA, 0 HR
Cutter: 15 pitches, .396 wOBA, .000 ISO, 46 LA, 0 HR
The numbers above look great, although he does not have a home run against the pitch mix. He is hitting the ball hard and hitting it in the air. I like the chances of Beck going deep this afternoon.
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Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 FanDuel)
Ladies and gentlemen, this is what you call a heat check. Clay Holmes will square off against the White Sox. Holmes has been getting hit hard over his last few starts. His strikeouts are down, and his home runs are up.
When I dig deeper into the game-by-game information, I found that Holmes’ velocity is dropping a bit, especially over his last two starts. It is already down 3 mph transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, but over his previous two starts, his sinker has floated around 91-93 instead of 93-94.
Over his last two starts, the righties have touched him up. He has allowed three home runs with a .406 wOBA, .630 SLG, and a 34.8% hard-hit rate to righties over that span. I am going to buy into these trends and hope we can land on the right White Sox to go yard.
My best bet would be Miguel Vargas. He profiles well against righties. He has a .355 wOBA and a .200 ISO against righties this season. Over his last 32 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is red hot with a .458 wOBA, .367 ISO, and three home runs. I will take a shot on Vargas this afternoon.
Kody Clemens OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings)
Kody Clemens will be our last home run bet of the night. This one is my favorite as well. As we all know, the two ballparks in Tampa and Sacramento are ripe for home runs. Tonight, it will be 85 degrees, which is the best hitting weather of the day. This is also the best hitting park on the day in my model.
Zack Littell has given up 14 long balls this season. Believe it or not, only six of those have come at home. He has a 4.44 xFIP, 2.12 HR/9, 36.0% hard-hit rate, and a 45.7% fly-ball rate this season. Lefties and righties have both hit him equally as hard. I like to target lefties in this stadium because it is the shortest porch in the big leagues to right field.
Clemens is not your typical lefty masher for the Twins. If you want to be safe, just bet Trevor Larnach. There's a chance Clemens doesn't break the lineup, but if he does, he is my top Twins bat. Clemens has a .375 wOBA and a .300 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he is even hotter with a .595 wOBA and a .536 ISO against the split.
He has hit three home runs over that span.
Littell throws five pitches, four of which he throws equally. The slider, four-seamer, and split finger are what he features to lefties. I won't dig into the splitter because who in their right mind is going to profile a splitter out of the ballpark, but I will dig into the slider and four-seamer. His slider has five home runs against it this season, with a .575 SLG, and his four-seamer has three home runs against it and a .405 SLG.
Slider: 16 pitches, .732 wOBA, .750 ISO, 11 LA, 1 HR
Four seamer: 25 pitches, .494 wOBA, .500 ISO, 34 LA, 1 HR
Clemens hits the slider the best on the Twins this season, and he profiles well against the four-seamer. Clemens has had success this season against the same mix he will see from Littell tonight. I like this matchup and park to bring us home on a high note.
Conclusion
Home run prop bets consistently provide some of the most thrilling opportunities for MLB bettors looking to capitalize on power-hitting performances.
Whether you opt to lean more heavily on past performance in a specific matchup or go with a player swinging a hot bat, the right HR prop bet can give you a major edge in the market. Today's slate features a nice mix with some strong, more proven plays like Swanson, along with some fresh power plays like Beck and Clemens.
Remember, while these bets can yield huge payouts, they also come with inherent risk, so it's crucial to bet responsibly and focus on value by shopping around for the best odds.
As always, make sure you're staying informed and taking into account factors like ballpark conditions, pitcher splits, and recent player form to maximize your chances of success with home run props. Good luck, and may your picks go yard!
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