X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/26/2025)

Dansby Swanson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

Happy Memorial Day, everyone. We have 12 games on tap to cap off our Memorial Day weekend. I have been red hot in this article. Last week, I hit two of four home run bets in both articles for a +4.15 unit week. Let’s see if we can continue the streak and hit at least two of our four dinger bets.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. If you came here looking for popular players, this article is not for you today. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props for MLB games on MondayMay 262025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/26/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, May 26:

Dansby Swanson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

We start our Memorial Day off at Wrigley Field with a matchup between the Cubs and the Rockies. The Cubs will face rookie southpaw Carson Palmquist. The wind is blowing in, and it will be in the upper 60s this afternoon in Wrigley. These are pitching conditions, but the Cubs have shown little concern for pitching conditions this season at home.

Although the sample size is limited, Palmquist is a well below-average pitcher. He has a 6.82 xFIP, 6.2% SwStr%, 2.16 HR/9, 36.8% FB%, and a 36.8% Hard Hit%. Righties have already found a rhythm against him. He has a .418 wOBA, .607 SLG, 1.3 HR/9, 38.7% FB%, and a 35.5% Hard Hit% this season against them.

The Cubs are full of right-handed bats with power, but none profiled better than Dansby Swanson. Swanson has a .351 wOBA and a .290 ISO against LHP this season. He has a .176 ISO over his last 18 plate appearances. As always with me, it is more than that, so let's dig into the pitch data.

Palmquist has gotten hit hard by two pitches: his four-seamer and sinker. His sweeper has been a pretty good pitch for him, and he's throwing it 38% of the time. He throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined 50% of the time. His four-seamer has a .641 wOBA and a .923 SLG, and his sinker has a .460 wOBA and a .460 SLG. Swanson crushes these two pitches.

Four-seamer: 31 pitches, .1029 wOBA, .1500 ISO, 31 LA, 3 HRs

Sinker: 37 pitches, .440 wOBA, .125 ISO, 1 LA, 0 HR

I love what I am seeing for Swanson to get a hold of one to start us off right this Memorial Day.

Jordan Beck OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 DraftKings)

Our second bet will be in the same game with the Rockies squaring off against Jameson Taillon. Taillon has allowed 14 home runs already in 2025. The Rockies are not a team we often target away from Coors, but this is one of the best home run targets in Taillon; we can’t pass it up.

Taillon has a 4.09 xFIP, 2.22 HR/9, and a 44.2% FB% this season. He has allowed a 2.77 HR/9, 48.6% FB%, and a 37.8% Hard Hit% over his last two starts. Although Taillon has usually had traditional splits, he has shown reverse splits this year. Righties have hit eight home runs, .368 wOBA, .578 SLG, 50.6% FB%, and a 32.1% Hard Hit%. They will be our target.

Beck has been a very trendy player over the last few weeks and has been a topic of discussion in our RotoBaller Discord. Beck has been tearing up right-handed pitching all season. He has a .363 wOBA and a .274 ISO in 2025. Over his last 27 plate appearances, he has a .418 wOBA, .346 ISO, and a .654 SLG.

Taillon has given up 13 of his 14 home runs against three pitches this season: his four-seamer, sweeper, and cutter. His four-seamer has five home runs against it and a .534 SLG, his sweeper has four home runs against it and a .652 SLG, and his cutter has four home runs against it and a .700 SLG.

Two players in particular profiled very well here, and if not for the weather, I would have bet on both Ezequiel Tovar and Beck; however, I ultimately chose Beck. Below are his numbers against those three pitches.

Four-Seamer: 33 pitches, .571 wOBA, .167 ISO, 28 LA, 0 HR

Sweeper: 23 pitches, .402 wOBA, .500 ISO, 24 LA, 0 HR

Cutter: 15 pitches, .396 wOBA, .000 ISO, 46 LA, 0 HR

The numbers above look great, although he does not have a home run against the pitch mix. He is hitting the ball hard and hitting it in the air. I like the chances of Beck going deep this afternoon.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 FanDuel)

Ladies and gentlemen, this is what you call a heat check. Clay Holmes will square off against the White Sox. Holmes has been getting hit hard over his last few starts. His strikeouts are down, and his home runs are up.

When I dig deeper into the game-by-game information, I found that Holmes’ velocity is dropping a bit, especially over his last two starts. It is already down 3 mph transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, but over his previous two starts, his sinker has floated around 91-93 instead of 93-94.

Over his last two starts, the righties have touched him up. He has allowed three home runs with a .406 wOBA, .630 SLG, and a 34.8% hard-hit rate to righties over that span. I am going to buy into these trends and hope we can land on the right White Sox to go yard.

My best bet would be Miguel Vargas. He profiles well against righties. He has a .355 wOBA and a .200 ISO against righties this season. Over his last 32 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is red hot with a .458 wOBA, .367 ISO, and three home runs. I will take a shot on Vargas this afternoon.

Kody Clemens OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings)

Kody Clemens will be our last home run bet of the night. This one is my favorite as well. As we all know, the two ballparks in Tampa and Sacramento are ripe for home runs. Tonight, it will be 85 degrees, which is the best hitting weather of the day. This is also the best hitting park on the day in my model.

Zack Littell has given up 14 long balls this season. Believe it or not, only six of those have come at home. He has a 4.44 xFIP, 2.12 HR/9, 36.0% hard-hit rate, and a 45.7% fly-ball rate this season. Lefties and righties have both hit him equally as hard. I like to target lefties in this stadium because it is the shortest porch in the big leagues to right field.

Clemens is not your typical lefty masher for the Twins. If you want to be safe, just bet Trevor Larnach. There's a chance Clemens doesn't break the lineup, but if he does, he is my top Twins bat. Clemens has a .375 wOBA and a .300 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he is even hotter with a .595 wOBA and a .536 ISO against the split.

He has hit three home runs over that span.

Littell throws five pitches, four of which he throws equally. The slider, four-seamer, and split finger are what he features to lefties. I won't dig into the splitter because who in their right mind is going to profile a splitter out of the ballpark, but I will dig into the slider and four-seamer. His slider has five home runs against it this season, with a .575 SLG, and his four-seamer has three home runs against it and a .405 SLG.

Slider: 16 pitches, .732 wOBA, .750 ISO, 11 LA, 1 HR

Four seamer: 25 pitches, .494 wOBA, .500 ISO, 34 LA, 1 HR

Clemens hits the slider the best on the Twins this season, and he profiles well against the four-seamer. Clemens has had success this season against the same mix he will see from Littell tonight. I like this matchup and park to bring us home on a high note.

 

Conclusion

Home run prop bets consistently provide some of the most thrilling opportunities for MLB bettors looking to capitalize on power-hitting performances.

Whether you opt to lean more heavily on past performance in a specific matchup or go with a player swinging a hot bat, the right HR prop bet can give you a major edge in the market. Today's slate features a nice mix with some strong, more proven plays like Swanson, along with some fresh power plays like Beck and Clemens.

Remember, while these bets can yield huge payouts, they also come with inherent risk, so it's crucial to bet responsibly and focus on value by shopping around for the best odds.

As always, make sure you're staying informed and taking into account factors like ballpark conditions, pitcher splits, and recent player form to maximize your chances of success with home run props. Good luck, and may your picks go yard!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Noah Brown

Undergoing MRI
Keon Coleman

Dealt With Chipped Bone in his Wrist in 2024
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
J.J. McCarthy

Says he's Fully Cleared
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
Brian Thomas Jr.

Returns to Practice on Thursday
Travis Hunter

Plays Offense and Defense in Final Minicamp Practice
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Aaron Judge

Out for First Time All Season
Kodai Senga

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Buffalo Bills

Maxwell Hairston Tweaks Hamstring
Arizona Cardinals

Will Johnson Sitting with Hamstring Tightness
Diontae Johnson

Focused on Returning to Form in 2025
Green Bay Packers

Bo Melton to Dabble at Cornerback
Rafael Devers

has Been Playing Through Groin Strain
Shedeur Sanders

Positioning Himself to Make the Roster
Tetairoa McMillan

Sitting Again on Thursday
Malik Nabers

Taking Part in Walkthrough
Shemar Stewart

Leaves Minicamp Without Contract
Tucker Kraft

Breakout Season Coming for Tucker Kraft?
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carlos Santana

Hits Grand Slam on Wednesday
Alec Bohm

Homers, Drives in Four on Wednesday
Clarke Schmidt

Strikes Out Seven in Win on Wednesday
Hunter Goodman

Homers, Doubles Twice on Wednesday
Marcelo Mayer

has First Multi-Homer Game in Win Over Rays
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leaves Wednesday's Game Early With Groin Tightness
TreVeyon Henderson

Hard to Miss at Offseason Workouts
Brandon Nimmo

Launches Two Home Runs
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Michael Gallup

Sitting at Minicamp Due to Hamstring Strain
David Peterson

Throws Complete-Game Shutout
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Jalen Coker

Back on the Field
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
Brent Rooker

Homers Twice in Four-Hit Game
Spencer Schwellenbach

Strikes Out Nine in Complete Game
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Brendan Donovan

Not Concerned He'll Land on Injured List
Shane McClanahan

In "Shut-Down Mode," to See Nerve Specialist
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Expected to Return to Europe
Myles Turner

Two Teams Seen as Potential Suitors for Myles Turner
Guerschon Yabusele

Wants a New NBA Contract
Jrue Holiday

Celtics Listening to Offers for Jrue Holiday
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Sam Bennett

Sets New Franchise Record with Four-Game Goal Streak
Brad Marchand

Nets Another Finals Goal
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Expected to Play Monday
WAS

T.J. Oshie Announces Retirement
A.J. Greer

Returns to Panthers Lineup Monday
Darius Garland

Likely to Miss Time After Toe Surgery
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Kevin Holland

Gets Submission Win At UFC 316
Daniil Tarasov

Has Begun Extension Talks with Blue Jackets
Anthony Duclair

Expected to Return to Islanders Next Season
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
Chase Elliott

is One of the Most Favored DFS Options of the Week for Michigan
William Byron

May be A Top Threat to Win at Michigan
Kyle Busch

is Difficult to Recommend for DFS Lineups at Michigan
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Qualifies Ninth For the FireKeepers Casino 400
Alex Bowman

What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Alex Bowman at Michigan?
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Should Shane Van Gisbergen Be Rostered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is A Solid Value Option For Michigan DFS Lineups
Zane Smith

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering Outside of Tournament Lineups at Michigan?
Todd Gilliland

Is A Decent Value Option for Michigan DFS Lineups
Ryan Blaney

One of the Leading DFS Contenders, but Might Be Slightly Overpriced
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF