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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/15/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and more.
We have a small slate of MLB action today, with not much to choose from when searching for the long ball. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that is due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We have some fun home run bets today, and my first pairing is from the same team.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 15, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is difficult.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/15/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, May 15:
- Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Jose Trevino,Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds- Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ozzie Albies OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel and DraftKings)
It's not a home run article if we don't have a bet in the first game of the day. The Braves will square off against the Nationals this afternoon, and Trevor Williams will toe the rubber. With it being a day game in Atlanta, the temperature is a bit warmer than we have seen, but the wind is blowing in, making the weather neutral.
The matchup is what intrigues me in this spot. Williams has a 4.03 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 1.09 HR/9, and a 35.1% FB this season. Williams has gotten crushed by left-hand hitters in 2025. He has a .451 wOBA and a .229 ISO. 2.2 HR/9, and a 35.8% FB. He has allowed five home runs to lefties this season.
I fully expected to be betting Matt Olson here as I started to dig in, but Ozzie Albies is the one who stood out in a big way. Albies has been nothing special against right-hand pitching this year. He has a .285 wOBA and a .139 ISO against the split this season. The profile here, with the pitch mix, is what stands out.
Williams is a very unique arm as he throws from a low arm angle. He has also allowed a significant amount of hard contact against his four-seamer this season, as evidenced by its .454 xSLG and 65 BBEs against it. He throws this pitch at 87.3 mph on average. Albies profiles well on both of these.
- Four Seamer: 29 Pitches, .432 wOBA, .500 ISO, 1 HR, 33 LA
- Arm Angle: 43 Pitches, .525 wOBA, .500 ISO, 2 HR, 16 LA
Look for Ozzie to get us rolling early on Thursday.
Jose Trevino Spencer Steer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (SEE NOTE BELOW)
* Jose Trevino is not in the lineup today. Spencer Steer will be my pivot at +360 on FanDuel. Steer, just like Trevino, profiles well against the mix of Wilson.
I know many of you reading this are saying, 'What in the world?' but hear me out. The subsequent two home run bets will get you back to rooting for some stars. Trevino will square off against Bryse Wilson and the White Sox at Great American Ball Park. This is the number one park in the big leagues for home runs in 2024.
Wilson has allowed a 5.37 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, 1.63 HR/9, 39.8% FB, and a 32.6% Hard Hit this season. He has struggled against right-handed hitters this year, a notable difference from his 2024 splits. He has a .417 wOBA, .247 ISO, 2.0 HR/9, 38.7% FB, and a 40.3% Hard Hit in 2025 against the split. He has allowed four home runs to righties this season.
Trevino has been surprisingly good paired with Austin Hays, the best right-handed bat in this lineup in 2025. Trevino is hitting to a .407 wOBA and a .212 ISO against righties in 2025. He is red hot with a .508 wOBA, .400 ISO, and a 224 wRC+ over his last ten plate appearances.
Jose Trevino demolishes a 2-run blast 💥 pic.twitter.com/01cy5gQKpG
— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2025
Wilson has multiple pitches that are getting hit extremely hard this season. His sinker has been his best pitch as he has allowed a .378 xSLG against it. His cutter and curveball are different stories. He has a .849 xSLG and a .684 xSLG against both pitches. Trevino must hit those two pitches well. Here is how he profiles against Wilson.
- Sinker: 35 Pitches, 424 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 HR, -11 LA
- Curveball: 29 Pitches, .433 wOBA, .143 ISO, 0 HR, 27 LA
- Cutter: 14 Pitches, .970 wOBA, .800 ISO, 1 HR, 1 LA
- Arm Angle: 41 Pitches, .542 wOBA, .364 ISO, 1 HR, 15 LA
You can understand why we are now betting on Jose Trevino. The numbers don’t lie. The matchup is elite, the profile is elite, and the park is elite. Sign me up.
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Our last two home run bets, as I teased a bit earlier, will be the first two players from the same team I have featured in this article. The Dodgers will host the Athletics tonight, on a night when the wind is expected to blow out to center field at eight mph.
Osvaldo Bido will toe the rubber for the Athletics. He has allowed a 5.37 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, 1.94 HR/9, 51.1% FB, and a 35.5% Hard Hit. The fly ball and hard-hit rate in this stadium against this offense is a problem.
Bido gets hit by both sides of the plate, but let's get to the righty talk when we get to Betts. Bido has allowed a .407 wOBA, .220 ISO, 2.2 HR/9, 58.6% FB, and a 34.5% Hard Hit. He has allowed five home runs to lefties this season.
Freeman has arguably been the best hitter on the Dodgers this season. I understand that's a bold take, given that Ohtani is likely to win the MVP again. Freeman has a .507 wOBA and a .378 ISO against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .438 wOBA, .292 ISO, and a 185 wRC+ over his last 27 plate appearances.
Bido has a heavy mix, but he still features his fastball 40.2% of the time. This pitch has a .533 xSLG against it. He also features the slider and changeup to lefties, which have a .592 xSLG and a .318 xSLG. Here is how Freeman profiles against Bido.
- Four Seamer: 48 Pitches, .508 wOBA, .286 ISO, 1 HR, 18 LA
- Slider: 17 Pitches, .279 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 HR, 9 LA
- Changeup: 67 Pitches, .548 wOBA, .222 ISO, 0 HR, 15 LA
- Arm Angle: 118 Pitches, .396 wOBA, .091 ISO, 0 HR, 18 LA
Mookie Betts OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520 FanDuel)
Mookie is my last bet of the night and is in a favorable matchup like Freeman. As I mentioned above, Bido has been hit hard by both sides of the plate. He has a .327 wOBA, .236 ISO, 1.7 HR/9. 45.8% FB and a 36.1% Hard Hit. He has allowed four home runs to righties this season.
Mookie Betts delivers a Hollywood ending on ring night 🤩 pic.twitter.com/4H4uxlDF1c
— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2025
Mookie is being Mookie like always. He has a .348 wOBA and a .150 ISO this season against right-hand pitching. Bido throws his four-seamer, slider, and sinker to right-hand hitters. The sinker has a .456 xSLG against it. Here is how Mookie profiles against Bido.
- Four Seamer: 60 Pitches, .413 wOBA, .250 ISO, 1 HR, 16 LA
- Slider: 44 Pitches, .528 wOBA, .571 ISO, 1 HR, 2 LA
- Sinker: 21 Pitches, .327 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 HR, -14 LA
- Arm Angle: 135 Pitches, 385 wOBA, .200 ISO, 1 HR, 23 LA
I love this spot for the Dodgers, especially the spots for these two stars. I expect to see some fireworks tonight and would not be afraid to parlay these two.
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