Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 14

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

With the All-Star break looming, fantasy managers are clamoring for this year's second-half breakouts, and this week we're looking at three pitchers who've been on something of a hot streak and are emerging as candidates for the stretch run. This week we'll be looking at Zack Greinke's run in Kansas City, Dean Kremer's dominance in Baltimore, and a promising start from first-half bust Aaron Civale in Cleveland.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 7/11/22.

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Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals – 31% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 68.2 IP, 4.85 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 7.2 K-BB%

7/10 vs. CLE: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Greinke came to play on Sunday, as the crafty veteran tossed five scoreless innings and tied a season-high with five strikeouts while earning his third victory of the year. Sunday was the continuation of a minor hot streak for Greinke, who has a 3.27 ERA in four starts since being activated from the injured list. This is quite a shift in outcomes for Greinke, as the future Hall-of-Famer put up an ugly 5.05 ERA through his first ten starts before suffering a flexor strain in late May.  The disparity in performance throughout the season has many fantasy managers wondering who the real Zack Greinke is and whether they can trust the once-reliable righty to produce again.

Ever the tactician on the mound, Greinke works with a deep arsenal of six pitches, including a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. Greinke puts these offerings to use too, throwing all but the sinker over 10% of the time. Rarely do pitchers evolve during the final stages of their career, but Greinke has changed his pitch sequencing quite a bit this season, including during the season. He has thrown his fastball and changeup less often and has leaned more heavily on his breaking pitches this season. The relationship between his slider and cutter has been especially noteworthy, as Greinke began the year throwing more sliders than ever, but has begun featuring the cutter more often since returning from injury. Greinke hadn’t thrown a single cutter all season before June 24 against Oakland but has thrown it 15.9% of the time over his last four starts. The correlation to success is obvious, but is it actually the cause?

Opposing batters sure seem to have a tough time with Greinke’s cutter, as opponents are hitting .200 with a .320 SLG and 28.8% whiff rate against the pitch this season. The cutter is best viewed as a variant of Greinke’s slider, at least that seems to be how he and the Royals’ staff view it. Coming in with an average velocity of 86.4 MPH, the cutter is four MPH harder than Greinke’s slider, and has less break and vertical movement than the slider. Here’s a side-by-side comparison from his first start back against Oakland.

Cutter:

Slider:

The slider’s break is much more pronounced, and the cutter looks sort of like an offering in between a slider and a fastball. Admittedly, neither pitch evokes an especially strong reaction as both lag behind in terms of raw measurables such as movement and spin, and have poor underlying numbers masked by positive outcomes. Greinke’s magic cutter has a .309 xBA, .641 xSLG, and 57.9% hard-hit rate. The slider is a little better but still has a .301 xBA, .415 xSLG, and a 34.8% hard-hit rate. Neither pitch has the mustard to be a reliable strikeout offering, and since both are getting smoked off the bat by opponents it’s hard to call them contact management pitches either.

If the shift towards a cutter isn’t the answer, then what is? Greinke has been throwing harder since his return from the injured list, but is still averaging just 90.4 MPH on the gun with his heather over his last four outings and has a .360 xBA and .712 (!) xSLG against his four-seam fastball this season. When push comes to shove, there doesn’t seem to be much to Greinke’s hot streak beyond favorable matchups and plain luck. He did most of his damage against the weak lineups of Cleveland, Texas, and Oakland, and got trounced for six runs against Houston in his only tough matchup. He has coasted off a .254 BABIP and 81.7% LOB rate during his hot streak and has a 4.28 FIP over his last four starts, which is barely better than his 4.50 FIP on the year. Greinke can hide behind smoke and mirrors with the best of them, but it’s still smoke and mirrors that explain recent success. Increased cutter usage can’t make up for the skills erosion the 38-year-old has suffered over the last few seasons, and he’s nothing more than a streamer to use against bad lineups at this point.

Verdict:

Yes, Greinke is featuring a cutter more often during a stretch of strong starts, but increased cutter usage can’t explain away rising hard-hit rates and stomach-churning expected stats. Greinke has benefitted from a cupcake schedule and good fortune on batted balls, something we can’t rely on long-term from a starter. Furthermore, his leash is surprisingly short for a pitcher his age (85 pitches on Sunday despite zero runs allowed) and he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball, meaning wins will be difficult to come by. He got destroyed by the Astros for six runs over five innings in his one true test since returning and doesn’t seem trustworthy against high-end or even mid-tier opponents. His next start comes Friday at Toronto, and hopefully, no one has to rely on him there.

 

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles – 21% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 32.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 10.4 K-BB%

7/09 vs. LAA: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

The O’s continued their defiance of critics over the weekend, completing a four-game sweep of the Angels and tossing their name into the wild card mix, something no one dreamed of coming into the year. Kremer has been a key figure in their success; the 26-year-old righty had a 6.84 ERA in 72.1 career innings heading into 2022 but has a sparkling 2.15 ERA in seven starts this season. This drastic turnaround seems to have come out of nowhere for Kremer, and fantasy managers still harbor a bit of healthy skepticism towards Kremer as evidenced by his relatively low ownership despite his strong performance. Let’s be real, if someone on the Dodgers or Yankees did what Kremer is doing, that player would be over 50% rostered by now, yet Kremer is barely over 20% as of writing this. Are managers correct in their apprehension, or is a breakout star just sitting out there in 4/5ths of leagues?

Originally a 14^th-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014, Kremer never had too much hype as a minor leaguer. No one thought much of him when he came to Baltimore in the Manny Machado deal, but four years later Kremer looks like by far the best piece of that trade for the Orioles. He never had much national attention as a prospect, but was a top-10 prospect in a relatively weak Baltimore system and was viewed as a potential back-end starter coming up. Kremer works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. His fastball is a mid-90s offering that Kremer is throwing a bit harder this season, with an average velocity of 93.5 MPH. The real lynchpin of his arsenal has been the cutter, which is Kremer’s best strikeout pitch and the pitch he uses most often after his fastball.

Coming up as a prospect Kremer was best known for his curveball, a high spin lollipop offering that would’ve been great in 1982, but modern trends in offensive approach have made this pitch painfully hittable. Batters are hitting .444 against the pitch with a .667 SLG and .477 wOBA this season. During his rookie season, Kremer used his curveball 27.2% of the time, but that number has dipped with each consecutive season and bottomed out at 9.7% in 2022. Clearly, the pitch Kremer once hoped to make a career out of was no longer viable.

The gradual phasing out of the curveball began Kremer’s shift towards the cutter, which he has thrown a career-high 29% of the time this season. The opposing batting average isn’t even that impressive at .289, but batters have managed just two extra-base hits (two doubles) off the pitch all season and have a .333 SLG and .266 wOBA. While categorized as a cutter, the pitch does have an exceptional break and straddles the line between cutter and slider the way Kremer uses it. Normally, I’d hunt for good examples of the pitch in action for a visual representation of the pitch, but Pitching Ninja already has us covered with three beautiful examples, including two from Saturday’s start and one from earlier this season.

What makes those examples particularly interesting is the stark difference in location Kremer uses in the two clips. In the first one, he is targeting the traditional low-and-away corner where most pitchers try and locate their breaking balls for maximum swing-and-miss potential, but in the latter clip, he is attacking high with the pitch, something you don’t often see with a secondary offering. This piqued a curious mind, so below is a heatmap of Kremer’s cutter usage this season.

The low and away corner is blood red as expected, but there’s a curious amount of activity in the high part of the zone. That’s not something typically seen with a secondary pitch, though it’s proven quite effective from a strikeout perspective for Kremer. This represents quite a contrast for Kremer compared to last season, as shown in the 2021 cutter heatmap below.

Kremer spent far too much time in the zone, especially the middle and lower parts of the zone. This indicates superior command of the pitch, as Kremer is putting it exactly where he wants it rather than slinging it wildly towards the plate hoping for a strike. Kremer’s zone rate is 3% lower on his cutter this season, but he’s reduced the number of walks and upped the number of whiffs with the pitch. This is just a glimpse into a larger trend for Kremer, who has a career-low 39.1% zone rate but appears to have corrected a nagging walk problem.

Kremer was a decent strike-thrower in the minor leagues but unraveled when he first reached the majors. He had a 4.60 BB/9 during his first two seasons, and his propensity for free passes was one of the biggest hurdles Kremer faced. A shift away from an ineffective curveball has helped some, but all signs point towards an overall leap in ability for Kremer in this regard. His first-pitch strike rate is 60% and his chase rate is 34.4%, both far and away career highs and strong indicators of legitimate improvement. It’s only been seven starts so it remains to be seen whether Kremer can hold these rates, but thus far he’s done an excellent job.

There are two major drawbacks to Kremer that must be confronted as they have this writer questioning what his long-term value might actually be. First is the strikeout rate, or lack thereof from Kremer. He has just a 19.4% strikeout rate through seven starts along with a pedestrian 10.4% whiff rate. He did earn seven strikeouts and 15 whiffs in his start against the Angels, but the Angels have the highest collective strikeout rate of any club in the majors. Kremer was a good strikeout pitcher in the minors, and this writer hypothesizes that his curveball was an excellent strikeout pitch against minor leaguers, but ineffective in the big leagues. His cutter can be effective in the big leagues but doesn’t carry the same strikeout oomph as the curveball did, resulting in a pitcher who will never live up to minor league strikeout numbers.

The second drawback with Kremer is through no fault of his own, but the fact is the guy’s just been plain lucky. His .303 BABIP is about league average, but Kremer has benefited from a laughably fortunate 84.4% LOB rate and microscopic 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This has resulted in a huge disparity between his 2.15 ERA and ERA predictive metrics, most of which peg him around 4.50. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, but Kremer is probably closer to his 4.49 SIERA than his 2.15 ERA. He’s done most of his damage against weak opponents too, with Seattle the only top-half offense Kremer has faced this season, making him hard to trust when teams like the Yankees and Red Sox come knocking on Baltimore’s door.

Verdict:

Dean Kremer is an improved pitcher, there is no doubt about that. He advanced through the minors on the strength of his curveball, and when that didn’t work he pivoted towards a cutter that has blossomed in 2022. Improvements in control and command have walk and home run issues in the rearview mirror for Kremer, though he lacks a strikeout punch in his arsenal. Kremer has also benefited from good fortune and a weak schedule, and reality could come at him in a hurry. He’s worth an add in leagues with 12 or more teams, though he should be avoided against tough opponents until he proves himself a little more.

 

Aaron Civale, Cleveland Guardians – 21% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 46 IP, 7.04 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 14.4% K-BB%

7/08 @ KC: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Few pitchers have had a rougher year than Civale, who came into the season as a reliable if bland mid-rotation piece, but completely unraveled for an ERA north of seven heading into this outing. He spent a month on the shelf with a sore glute (we’ve all been there) and didn’t pitch that well upon returning, posting a 5.40 ERA in his first three starts back. Friday was a different story, as Civale mowed down the Kansas City lineup for seven innings of one-run ball, though Cleveland would ultimately fall thanks to some bullpen woes. Still, this was the first promising start we’ve seen from Civale in a while, and fantasy managers must be wondering if they can turn back to a once dependable arm, or if Civale is still to be avoided.

Originally a third-round pick by Cleveland back in 2016, Civale epitomizes the Cleveland pitching prospect prototype. His fastball leaves something to be desired but finds success thanks to a deep repertoire of secondary offerings and spectacular control. Civale has had seven different pitches tracked by Pitch F/x this season, but he works primarily with four: a four-seam fastball, cutter, sinker, and curveball.

The curveball is Civale’s best offering, and even with Civale’s struggles, the pitch has been effective. Opponents are hitting just .132 against Civale’s curveball, with a .264 SLG and .192 wOBA. Remember, Civale currently has a 6.28 ERA, so batters were crushing him left and right with every other pitch, but still couldn’t hit the curveball. What makes the pitch so special is its spin rate, which ranks in the 95^th percentile at 2937 average RPM, putting Civale in elite territory. His curveball also has nearly seven inches of drop over the league average. The bewildering bender sounds great on paper, but sometimes you’ve just got to see it, so below is an example of the curveball from a start on 7/2/22.

Now that’s a classic curveball, coming in with an exaggerated rainbow arc and kissing the bottom of the zone, making it nigh impossible to hit for even DJ LeMahieu, a man who rarely finds himself a strikeout victim. What’s interesting about Civale’s curve is how often he’s used it this season, throwing it a career-high 26.1% of the time. Usually, when a pitcher has a pitch this good throwing it more often brings good results, but that’s not the case with Civale. The issue seems to be a lack of a consistent approach, as Civale has spent the season shuffling between fastballs trying to get something to work.

Aaron Civale may have used seven unique pitches this season, but four of those pitches — four-seamer, sinker, cutter, and splitter — are all fastball variations. He’s only thrown 22 splitters all season so that was never a contender, but the other three have all spent time as Civale’s primary fastball. He began the year using his four-seamer and cutter, then shifted towards a four-seam/sinker approach, and since returning from the IL has emphasized the sinker and cutter. This seems desperate on Civale’s part, but the reality is he needs to stop tinkering and let his batted ball outcomes normalize.

Civale’s four-seamer has been pulverized for a .389 AVG, .611 SLG, and .431 wOBA. There isn’t a crazy gap between the expected power numbers (thanks in large part to an inordinate 30-degree average launch angle against the pitch), but a .277 xBA suggests the pitch can at least perform respectably and complement his curveball with better batted-ball luck. There are similar gaps in actual and expected outcomes with Civale’s cutter, and when Civale has been at his best it’s because he was able to use the cutter effectively in tandem with his curveball. The velocity on his cutter and four-seam fastball has been inconsistent this season, but both were up in this most recent start and it would serve Civale well to keep his fastball velocity above 91 MPH and his cutter velocity above 87.

Even if we take a step back from the nitty-gritty of each individual pitch there are glaring indicators that Civale has been the victim of misfortune this season. His BABIP against is a staggering .346 and he has an absurdly low 57.9% LOB rate. Remarkably, his 3.93 SIERA is the best of his career despite sporting an ERA greater than six. His average exit velocity against and line-drive rates are both up a bit, which helps explain these outcomes, but Civale has been unlucky even when taking those trends into account

Verdict:

Even after 54 career starts, Civale is a tough nut to crack. Whenever he pitches poorly all peripheral numbers suggest he’s been unlucky and better days are ahead, but when he’s pitching well the opposite is true and everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. He has one really, really good offering in his curveball, but the deficiencies in the rest of his arsenal prevent him from truly capitalizing on the pitch-for-pitch strikeout numbers. He’s never going to be a superstar, but to get back to past success he needs to stick with a consistent approach, ideally using excellent command to find stability with his cutter and fastball, and flummoxing batters with his curveball. This start was a step in the right direction, but we can only put so much stock into an outing against the Royals. Keep an eye on Civale as a second-half bounce back, paying especially close attention to his pitch sequencing and velocity, the crucial factors that could lead to a sustained turnaround.

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