A Tale of Two Months: First Base

June 4, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut analyzes fantasy baseball risers and fallers at first base. He breaks down which 1B have the biggest changes in their wOBA from April to March.

With two months now in the books, and many players having played nearly as many games as they did in 2020, it's time to take stock on the truth behind various hot starts and slumps.

However, we shouldn't do so just for our own edification, as there is good instruction to be had. Knowing who to target and who to trade away; who can be relied on for the future and who you need to have backup plans for.

With that in mind, we're going to go around the positions, using the biggest differences in wOBA between April and May as our jumping-off point. Let's find some truth in spring advertisements, shall we?

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First Base wOBA Changes

First, a few parameters and explanations. We'll use a minimum of 50 PA in each of April and May as our cutoff and players will be sorted according to change in wOBA. Values mentioned are from the FanGraphs auction calculator, using settings for a 12-team league with: C (1) - 1B (1) - 2B (1) - SS (1) - 3B (1) - OF (5) - MI (1) - CI (1) - UT (1)

The Good

Josh Fuentes, 1B, COL 

167 PA: 5 HR - 22 R - 26 RBI - 0 SB - .255/.293/.427

Fuentes may lead our list in terms of wOBA increases but a quick look at his splits illuminates his severe restrictions.

Home: .410 wOBA, .976 OPS, 134 wRC+

Away: .188 wOBA, .408 OPS, 16 wRC+

vs LHP: .453 wOBA, 1.083 OPS, 175 wRC+

vs RHP: .244 wOBA, .562 OPS, 39 wRC+

If you can manage to only play Fuentes at home vs LHP (.593 wOBA, 1.437 OPS, 266 wRC+), by all means, do so. But in the immediate future, that's only going to be this Saturday, taking on Cole Irvin and the Athletics. In other words, channel your inner Lion-O...DFS-ho-oooo!

Jose Abreu, 1B, CHW

215 PA: 11 HR - 27 R - 46 RBI - 1 SB - .262/.349/.492

After a hot May where he collected an insane 27 RBI (second in baseball, only to Austin Meadows), it's probably too late to trade for Abreu and get any sort of discount. However, given how he's trending, I'm not sure you need to get one. In addition to the large increases in wOBA and OPS, Abreu is slashing .333/.422/.631 in May, up from .213/.296/.394 in April, with a .546 wOBAcon (wOBA on contact) that is up from a .363 wOBAcon in April. And his expected stats are even better, with a .465 xwOBA and .586 xwOBAcon.

Abreu isn't going to catch Vlad Jr. for the most valuable first baseman but second-place seems like a solid bet. If you're looking to shore up your offense by making a move for a star, this is one of the safest moves on the board.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL

232 PA: 7 HR - 32 R - 30 RBI - 3 SB - .246/.310/.403

The good news is that, in addition to his increases in wOBA and OPS, Goldschmidt in May has also seen big bumps in his ISO, OBP, SLG, and wRC+. The bad news is that those numbers from May are still mostly mediocre, relative to what we've come to expect. In May, Goldschmidt has a .157 ISO (.126 ISO in April), .359 OBP (.257 OBP in April), .431 SLG (.340 SLG in April), and 123 wRC+ (68 wRC+ in April). However, he's still the #10 1B  in 12-team leagues through the first two months, according to the FanGraphs auction calculator, and his x-stats in May speak even more favorably, posting a .411 xwOBA (.299 xwOBA in April) and .480 xwOBAcon (.379 wOBAcon in April).

Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, MIA

171 PA: 5 HR - 17 R - 21 RBI - 0 SB - .260/.333/.416

Wait a second, how did a Marlin get on here? Well, after posting a .612 OPS and .277 wOBA in April, Cooper put up a .912 OPS and .394 wOBA in May that were both the 4th-highest among first baseman. Entering June with a value of $1.5 in 12-team leagues, Cooper has only barely been better than replacement-level but that number is rising rapidly. He's playing every day and has batted third or fourth in each of his last five games. Available in 70% of leagues on Yahoo and ESPN, Cooper is starting to be worth a cheeky little look.

The Bad

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIA

205 PA: 10 HR - 20 R - 39 RBI - 0 SB - .253/.317/.467

Whew! All is right in the world after that whole Garrett Cooper debacle...We finally get to bash a Marlin. I mean, not exactly, as it's hard to complain about what Aguilar has given those rostering him, so far. His $13.8 value in 12-team leagues puts him as just the 12th-best 1B but that value is good enough to make him the 71st-best hitter overall.

Unfortunately, for Fish fans everywhere, May has mostly brought pain for Aguilar, with drops from a .387 wOBA in April to a .275 wOBA in May, and a .925 OPS to a .649 OPS both representing the biggest decreases among qualified first basemen. In fact, everywhere you turn, all you find are precipitous drops. Slashing .296/.394/.531 in April? How about .217/.247/.402 in May?

The good news is that he's probably not as bad as he was in May, just as he's not as good as he was in April, at least in terms of wOBA, with Aguilar staying steady from a .346 wOBA in April, to a .334 wOBA in May. And while he dropped from a .403 wOBAcon in April to a .342 wOBAcon in May, his .421 xwOBAcon in May was significantly higher than a .346 xwOBAcon in April.

The bad news is that Aguilar is pulling most of his fantasy value from his 38 RBI through May that was tied for the 10th-most in baseball. Breaking down his value from the FanGraphs auction calculator, Aguilar earned $5.9 from RBI and $1.5 from HR but went negative on average (-$1.1), runs (-$3.5), and stolen bases (-$3.3). Relying on RBI from a Marlin is a dangerous game, considering Miami ranks 27th in both total RBI and runs scored. Those that have been relying on Aguilar's early production at first base may want to make contingency plans for the summer.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B, HOU

212 PA: 7 HR - 22 R - 39 RBI - 0 SB - .301/.373/.497

Speaking of needing to make contingency plans, may I present, the amazing Yuli! Lourdes' older brother has put on an early clinic of fantasy goodness, clocking in as the #40 hitter through the first two months of the season but the smoke-and-mirror show has started to reveal itself. While not as shiny as his .999 OPS and .432 wOBA from April, Gurriel's .779 OPS and .326  wOBA in May were, at least, respectable. However, his damage on contact was much more painful, dropping from a .440 wOBAcon to a .330 wOBAcon.

And Gurriel's x-stats say there was even more pain left on the table. His .384 xwOBA in April dropped to a .287 xwOBA in May, while his expected wOBA on contact went from a .375 xwOBAcon to a .286 xwOBAcon in May. Just like with Aguilar above, if you've reaped the rewards of his unexpected success, don't get greedy and think you're going to keep getting away with it. Find another first baseman before Yuli drags you down.

Nate Lowe, 1B, TEX

243 PA: 8 HR - 26 R - 30 RBI - 4 SB - .246/.354/.396

Yes, I too remember when Nate Lowe used to hit home runs. Unfortunately, after hitting 6 HR in April, the former Ray hit just 2 HR in May, posting .307 wOBA, with a bargain-basement level .667 OPS. Even with that dud of a May, Lowe is still the #10 1B by value ($15.8), coming in as the #58 hitter overall. But keep in mind that his value is artificially propped up by a career-high four stolen bases, with Lowe never having stolen more than one base in a season prior to 2021. I wouldn't count on that outlier continuing, as he hasn't even attempted one since May 3.

Besides the drops in wOBA and OPS, Lowe also freefalled through other key power measurements last month, going from a .208 ISO and .485 SLG in April to a .100 ISO and .320 SLG in May. Adding those May numbers to a .359 wOBAcon (down from a .471 wOBAcon) and you don't exactly wind up with much of a power threat. IE. Hitting as many home runs in May as Billy Hamilton.

At least Lowe has cut his strikeout rate back down to a career-low 28.0% K%, while his 14.2% BB% is a career-high. But you're not looking for walks from Lowe, just like you don't need him to steal more bases. You need bombs and Lowe simply isn't delivering.

The Meh

Jared Walsh, 1B/OF, LAA

210 PA: 12 HR - 25 R - 38 RBI - 2 SB - .300/.362/.558

Walsh may not have seen large improvements in his wOBA and OPS but that doesn't much matter when you're running a .394 wOBA and .939 OPS for the season. His average has dropped off quite a bit, going from a .329 AVG in April to a .288 AVG in May but his power results have gotten even better, going from a .220 ISO and .549 SLG to a .298 ISO and .587 SLG.

Do beware, however, that his x-stats don't paint as rosy of a picture. In addition to his falling batting average being backed by a .257 xBA, Walsh's .398 wOBA is backed by a .338 xwOBA, dropping from a .352 xwOBA in April to a .300 xwOBA in May. And things aren't any better on contact - while his .536 wOBAcon in May is up from a .481 wOBAcon in April, Walsh had a .390 xwOBAcon in May and a .397 xwOBAcon for the year. That's a 60-point difference to the bad on his wOBA and a 100-pt difference on wOBAcon. These are not good things. Be happy with what you've gotten so far, Walsh owners; there may be a little pain ahead.

Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BOS

153 PA: 5 HR - 11 R - 22 RBI - 1 SB - .203/.255/.378

Well, at least Dalbec remembered how to hit dongs in May, with 5 HR last month after just 1 HR in April. Unfortunately, his .288 wOBA in May was roughly the same as his .274 wOBA in April, and while his .672 OPS was up 53-points, it's still only a .672 OPS. Not great.

There is some positivity with his wOBA on contact, with his .453 wOBAcon in May up from a .370 wOBAcon in April but he dropped from a .493 xwOBAcon to a .428 xwOBAcon. Unfortunately, that whole "on-contact" thing continues to be an issue for the big whiffer. While not as bad as his 42.4% K% and 21.2% SwStr% from 2020, a 35.9% K%  and 17.5% SwStr% doesn't exactly scream plate-discipline.

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