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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
Coming off a strong showing on Wednesday (5-2 and nearly 6-1 if not for the darn Celtics being unable to score one more basket in the final three minutes of an easy win!), I'm ready to get back at it with a solid 10-game Friday night slate! I did a weird thing yesterday - I didn't bet on either of the two TNT games and tried to enjoy them strictly as an NBA fan. While the Sixers got blown out by the Nets, at least the Warriors-Nuggets game was competitive and I was secretly a little excited to see Golden State get a big win as I think a healthy Warriors team has a chance at contending with Phoenix in the West. I love Nikola Jokic, though, and he did everything he could to get his team a win, he just doesn't have enough help some nights. But enough about those games, let's look at who's playing tonight!
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, March 11, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 125-113-2
- Against the Spread 64-54-2
- Over/Under 28-37
- Other/Props 33-23
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves (-7) @ Orlando Magic (233 total)
It's not often that I get behind a favorite this big as I am not a big fan of laying more than 5-6 points on NBA favorites. But this Minnesota team is really rounding into form in the second half and has been one of the most improved teams in the league this year. This last ten-game stretch has been uber-impressive, however, as they're 8-2 over that span with the second-best net rating (+11.1) in the league, despite not having Anthony Edwards for a large chunk of those games.
I really like the Wolves to keep it rolling here and stomp on this rebuilding Orlando squad. Minnesota is 8-5 ATS this year as a road favorite and this recent stretch of dominance gives me some confidence in their ability to cover again tonight. Anthony Edwards is questionable, but Karl-Anthony Towns should dominate against a weak Orlando frontcourt and Malik Beasley has been one of the hottest shooters in the NBA of late. Somewhere in the midwest, my buddy Kyle Ringstad is smiling upon reading this pick as he's waiting a long time for the Wolves to be a force in the league.
The Pick: MIN -7 (-110)
Detroit Pistons (+13.5) @ Boston Celtics (216 total)
If you're not willing to back a big underdog or bet on a bad team, then skip this part of the article and save yourself a few minutes. If you're still here, then let's discuss why the Pistons are one of the strongest bets on the slate tonight.
It's been a rough year in Detroit, but they've shown some signs of life lately and we've seen Cade Cunningham really come into his own in the second half of the season to lead this group of Detroit youngsters to six wins over their last nine games. One of those wins was an upset of Boston back on February 16th on the road and since that win, Detroit's three losses have only been by nine, six, and three points. So even when they're losing, they're covering and that's all we really want them to do here tonight.
Yes, Boston has been the best team in net rating over the last ten games, but Detroit has been significantly better during that stretch than they were all season and they've proven they can hang with the Celtics by beating this spread twice (and winning outright once).
The Pick: DET +13.5 (-110)
Charlotte Hornets (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (229.5 total)
I will try to keep the analysis short here. The Pelicans were surging for a while after newly-acquired C.J. McCollum had gotten acclimated to his new teammates and their new trio of McCollum-Ingram-Valanciunas was giving good teams fits and winning some games that they weren't supposed. But the bad news for New Orleans is that Brandon Ingram is out yet again tonight and now McCollum, who had been carrying them while Ingram was out, is officially out as well as he's in the COVID protocols.
That puts the Hornets in a very favorable spot here as the Pelicans were already trending down without Ingram having lost three in a row and most recently losing to a bad Orlando team. Charlotte should win here and with only a two-point spread, I'm fine laying the points instead of taking their money line. They could run away with this one as the Pelicans don't play much defense and simply aren't going to have enough scoring to keep up with Charlotte on offense.
The Pick: CHA -2 (-110)
New York Knicks (+9.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (230.5 total)
God, I hate the Knicks. It's not just because they get national TV games based on their home market and not their actual worthiness. Maybe it's because they've burned me plenty of times already earlier this season. Or just because they play an incredibly ugly, hard-to-watch style of basketball that simply isn't all that entertaining.
After being one of the more disappointing teams in the league this season for much of the year and failing to meet some lofty expectations since they were a playoff team last year, something has gotten into the Knicks recently. After losing by only one point to Phoenix last Friday, they've run off three straight wins and dominated their opponents in each game winning by 23, 16, and 30 points. Beating Phoenix without Booker or Paul or handling the Kings isn't overly impressive but a 30-point road win in Dallas has my attention.
They could easily burn me here, and the Grizzlies did beat them by 12 at home in their only other meeting this season. But this spread feels too wide for how well the Knicks are playing right now. Memphis is tough, but they have a habit of letting teams hang around, too. I'm on the Knicks (gulp) with the points here.
The Pick: NYK +9.5 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
I'm really invested in spreads and props tonight and if you take a peek at my overall record, you'll see that's where I have been my most profitable. I've been doing a lot more team totals lately but nothing on this slate really jumps out at me.
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
1:30 PM Update
Darius Garland over 2.5 threes (+110) - Garland has had taken 20+ shots in five of his last six games and will have to continue to carry this Cleveland offense that lacks other scoring options in the backcourt with LeVert out. He's made three or more in eight of his last nine and Miami allows the sixth-most three-pointer per game to opponents.
Rudy Gobert over 28.5 points/rebounds (-115) - People seem to be on the over on both Gobert's points (14.5 at -130) and boards (13.5 at -135) but if you add those together it comes out to 28 and his P/R prop is only a half-point higher for better odds. He had 30 (16 points 14 boards) in 32 minutes in their first meeting and I expect him to play his full complement of minutes tonight in a close game. No Bojan B also gives him a small boost in usage, too.
Deandre Ayton over 27.5 points/rebounds (-120) - While it's tempting to go back to Jonas Valanciunas tonight in a great matchup and increased usage, I'm looking to target a much lower number here with Ayton. He was dominant for two games while Booker was out, posting 38 and 40 combined points/boards, and then still managed 29 last time out in a tough matchup against Miami. Toronto allows the most points per possession on offensive rebounds and putbacks this season and I look for Ayton to continue his solid run here in this one.
Spencer Dinwiddie over 27.5 PRA (-120) - With Jalen Brunson out tonight, Dinwiddie should be the second option on offense behind Luka Doncic and the other main facilitator, too. He's already been outplaying Brunson and eating into his production, now he gets a matchup with a horrible Houston team that bleeds production to opponents. This number feels low.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
NO PARLAYS TODAY, BUILD YOUR OWN USING MY PROJECTIONS IF YOU'D LIKE!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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