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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Giants vs Buccaneers showdown slate. His Week 11 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 11 has been profitable so far. I personally had a rough day yesterday, but I hope to bounce back tonight in what should be an exciting matchup as the Giants (3-6) head into Raymond James Stadium to take on the Buccaneers (6-3). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 22nd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Leonard Fournette ($15,000 DK, $11,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 112 rushing attempts, 486 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 48 targets, 38 receptions, 284 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 59.51% snap rate, 58.33% attempt rate, 57.78% red zone attempts, 63.64% attempt rate within the five, 12.83% target rate, 11.94% red zone targets.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 2.4% (6th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -0.6% (30th)
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): -19.8% (5th)
"Playoff Lenny" has been pretty good this regular season as well. Despite playing in the number one passing offense in the league, Fournette has gotten his, averaging 15.4 DK points and 13.33 FD points per game. The Bucs come into this one as a 10.5 point favorite, creating a favorable game script for Fournette. The matchup is there as well, creating a potential smash spot.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Daniel Jones, Bucs D/ST, Kenny Golladay
Daniel Jones ($14,400 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,059 passing yards, eight touchdowns, five interceptions, 50 rushes, 258 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Passing DVOA: -0.8% (25th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 3.6% (12th)
Daniel Jones has had an up and down season, showing promise in some spots and having rough games in others. Tonight he should get weapons Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley back. While he may struggle initially, if the Bucs get up early, there should be plenty of time of garbage time for Danny to hit value. I see the Bucs taking care of business rather easily tonight, but in any game script, I think Daniel Jones has a solid floor and a 25+ points ceiling.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Leonard Fournette
Other Captains: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Tom Brady ($11,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,870 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 46.4% (1st)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 1.5% (11th)
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the G.O.A.T. You cannot deny the production that Brady's been putting up this season, but this is where it gets a bit funny. It seems like even when the Bucs are rolling over a team, they like to pile it on and Brady ends up throwing for four-plus touchdowns. However, the Giants are much better against the pass (1.5%, 11th) than the run (-0.6%, 30th). I'll have Brady shares at the 1.5x spot, but part of me feels like if the Bucs get up early, they'll pound the rock with Fournette. Regardless, Brady has a solid floor and should be considered in optimal lineups on both sites.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski ($6,400 DK, $10,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 22 targets, 16 receptions, 184 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 60.69% snap rate, 12.57% target rate, 21.43% red zone target rate, 4 end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -0.1% (14th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Reggie Ragland): 13% target per route covered, 83% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route covered.
There's some uncertainty if Gronk will play or not, but if he's in with no restrictions, I feel he is a must. The matchup is too good, and when you look at the 2021 stats, remember that he's only played three games (outside of one target last week). I have no problem pivoting to Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard if Gronk ends up sitting, but my thought is that he'll play.
Recommendation: Cash (DK, FD), GPP (CPT, DK)
Best Correlations: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Daniel Jones
Other Flex Plays: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay
NFL DFS Value Plays
Buccaneers D/ST ($5,200 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 23.6 points allowed per game, 22 sacks, 10 interceptions, five fumble recoveries.
- Defensive DVOA: -4.5% (9th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: -11.6% (26th)
While I think this could certainly turn into a shootout if the Giants are feeling frisky, I think there's equally a likely chance that this daunting Bucs defense shuts down Daniel Jones. The Bucs should be able to get pressure on Jones, causing him to make mistakes. He's averaged nearly a turnover per game, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns the ball over multiple times tonight.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette
Graham Gano ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 21 field goals attempted, 19 field goals made, 12/12 extra points.
Kickers have been a hot commodity on showdown slates, being in a ton of winning lineups in both cash games and tournaments. I think this could be a perfect storm matchup for Gano. While I think that the Bucs defense should put pressure on Jones and force him to make mistakes, the Giants should be able to move down the field a few times and if they end up sputtering it should open plenty of opportunities for Gano to knock down a couple of kicks.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Leonard Fournette, Bucs D/ST
Other Value Plays: Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
It's a Tampa Bay slate, so I recommend playing GPPs and trying and spread ownership around the Bucs' offense. I personally like a slaughter stack with Brady + Fournette + a pass catcher, but feel free to play Brady + two pass catchers as well. On the Giants side, I'll mostly be hedging with Daniel Jones, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Saquon Barkley if he plays. I'll probably be about 75/25 Bucs heavy here, as I'm expecting a big bounce-back night from them.
Have a good week everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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