Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

October 26, 2021

Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Gainwell, Nelson Agholor,, and more.

In Week 7 the Cowboys, Bills, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars were all on bye which means the list of top performers from this week may look a little different. Tua Tagovailoa took advantage of a great matchup against the Falcons to finish as QB-1 on the week while Joe Burrow threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns to make a statement against the Ravens and finish as QB-2. Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones and Taylor Heinicke rounded out the top-10 at the position. C.J. Uzomah had his second big game of the season, scoring two long-touchdowns against the Ravens to finish as TE-1 while Kyle Pitts and Mike Gesicki each had eight targets finishing inside the top-three. Foster Moreau was a surprise top-five tight end filling in for Darren Waller and both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz posted top-10 finishes now that they aren't competing with each other for targets.

The top-12 wide receivers from Week 7 were Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman Jr., Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins, so nothing was really surprising there. The WR2's on the other hand were a little surprising. Kendrick Bourne threw a touchdown pass to finish as WR-16, Dante Pettis filled in nicely for Sterling Shepard finishing as WR-18 and Allen Lazard scored against a depleted Washington secondary, helping him to a WR-15 finish.

Alvin Kamara topped 100 yards receiving to finish as RB-1 on the week and D'Andre Swift (RB-2) was right behind him, finishing with 96 receiving-yards. Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden both crushed the Jets to finish as top-five running backs while D'Ernest Johnson, Elijah Mitchell, Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette, Khalil Herbert and Myles Gaskin all finished as top-10 options. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 7 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 7 Stats: 20-of-35 passing, 206 yards, 1 INT, 6 carries, 35 yards

Mike White, Jared Goff, Mac Jones and Case Keenum all scored more fantasy points this week than Patrick Mahomes. Let that sink in. The Titans had Mahomes under duress the entire game and he was never able to get comfortable, leading to many rushed throws. Mahomes began pressing soon into the game and he never got on track or into any sort of rhythm.

Bottom Line: The Chiefs play the Giants in Week 8 who don't have nearly the pass rush that the Titans do, so Mahomes should bounce back nicely from this hiccup. If anything, Mahomes is a decent buy-low option in trades.

Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots

Week 7 Stats: 5 targets, 2 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD

Nelson Agholor scored a 26-yard touchdown on a double-pass from Kendrick Bourne. On the play, Mac Jones threw a backwards pass to Bourne who ran to his right and then threw a pass to a wide open Nelson Agholor for the score. The play was executed well and Agholor was a WR2 due solely to that long score. Regardless of his big-play ability, the fact remains that Agholor has not caught more than three balls in a game and has only seen more than five targets once since he had five catches all the way back in Week 1.

Bottom Line: Nelson Agholor simply isn't utilized enough to be a dependable starting wide receiver in your lineup. He's worth a stash on  your bench in deeper leagues, but in shallow leagues he's nothing more than a desperation play if you have injuries or bye week troubles.

Elijah Moore, N.Y. Jets

Week 7 Stats: 1 carry, 19 yards, 1 TD, 6 targets, 1 catch, 13 yards

Elijah Moore played 56.9% of the Jets offensive snaps in Week 7 which was the most he's played since Week 2. The Jets found themselves playing from behind in a 54-13 rout against the Patriots and they had to put the ball in the air a lot trying to catch up. While Moore was only able to haul in one-of-six targets, he was able to score a touchdown on an end-around.

Bottom Line: Elijah Moore played the third-most snaps among Jets receivers behind Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder, surpassing Keelan Cole in the pecking order. Moore is a playmaker and his role will surely grow the further the season goes on as the Jets figure out ways to get him the ball. Moore is worth a roster spot, even in shallower leagues, because he may emerge as a consistent option late in the year.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

Week 7 Stats: 9 targets, 3 catches, 14 yards

Robby Anderson now has 38 targets over the last four weeks of the season but only has 13 catches, 101 yards  and one touchdown to show for it. While Anderson deserves some of the blame because of a couple bad drops, it's worth noting that Sam Darnold has been an absolute train-wreck as of late which makes it impossible to trust Anderson right now.

Bottom Line: If you haven't already reached this conclusion, you cannot rely on Anderson until he comes through. Anderson needs to catch more than half of his targets in a game and put up decent yardage before you can rely on him with any confidence, even in deeper leagues. It's safe to cut Anderson in 10-team leagues if you haven't already.

D'Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns

Week 7 Stats: 22 carries, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches, 22 yards

D'Ernest Johnson played a season-high 69% of the Browns offensive snaps in Week 7 with both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb out of the lineup with calf-injuries. If Hunt and Chubb remain out of the lineup, Johnson will remain a viable RB2. However, Johnson will have a tougher matchup in Week 8 against a Steelers defense that's giving up a healthy 4.3 yards-per-carry, but just the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.

Bottom Line: Alex Collins is the only running back to crack 100 yards rushing against the Steelers and score more than 15 fantasy points on them so far this season. The Steelers have also only surrendered two rushing touchdowns on the year, making Johnson's outlook less appealing in Week 8 even if he does start.

Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots

Week 7 Stats: 2 carries, 0 yards, 7 targets, 6 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD

The Patriots backfield is once again becoming extremely difficult to navigate. In Week 6 many fantasy managers rolled Brandon Bolden out there against the Cowboys thinking that the Patriots would be trailing most of the game and needing to throw. Instead, Damien Harris topped 100 yards on the ground and the Patriots led the entire game until the Cowboys tied it up late and forced overtime. In Week 6, Rhamondre Stevenson actually led all Patriots running backs in targets with three. In Week 7, in a game which the Patriots dominated, Brandon Bolden tied for the team-lead in targets (7) with Jakobi Meyers.

Bottom Line: Outside of Damien Harris the Patriots backfield has been difficult to navigate over the last few weeks. Moving forward, Harris is the only Patriots running back you can trust with any confidence. If you do need to start Brandon Bolden because you're desperate, I think he can only be trusted if Rhamondre Stevenson is inactive, similar to Week 7.

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 7 Stats: 5 carries, 20 yards, 8 targets, 4 catches, 41 yards, 1 TD

Miles Sanders exited Week 7 against the Raiders with an ankle injury and as a result Kenneth Gainwell played a season-high 50.7% of the Eagles offensive snaps. Gainwell carried the ball just five times but with the Eagles trailing for most of the game, he was able to haul in four catches for 41 yards and a score to finish as RB-21 on the week.

Bottom Line: Kenneth Gainwell will likely be the No. 1 waiver target heading into Week 8. The severity of Miles Sanders' ankle injury is still unknown at this point, but he has been labeled week-to-week and is unlikely to play next week. In Week 8 the Eagles play against a Lions defense that's giving up the most fantasy points to running backs on the season, which puts Gainwell in RB-1 territory, at least in the short term.

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 7 Stats: 6 targets, 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD

Darren Waller missed Week 7 and Foster Moreau cashed in on his opportunity, finishing as TE-4, playing a season-high 100% of the Raiders offensive snaps. Derek Carr doesn't just like throwing to Waller, he likes throwing to his tight ends in general. It did, however, help that Moreau had a good matchup this week as the Eagles defense gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Bottom Line: Unfortunately, unless Darren Waller's ankle injury lingers for several weeks, it looks like Foster Moreau's breakout will be short-lived because the Raiders have a bye in Week 8.

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