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Four weeks in the books! We have a serious amount of data to look at now for the season, and to me, this is where the fun really begins.
Week four brought us some really disappointing performances from the early-season breakout names, as well as some very consequential injuries. It's always best to review the previous week before looking forward to the next, and that's what I'm here to do.
Here is the week four data dump.
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Situational Data
Tennesee found themselves in a strangely fast-paced game against the Jets, so they led the way in plays run by quite a big margin. Their 61% pass rate was much higher than you'd have expected, especially with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out, but that's the kind of stuff that can happen in a one-game sample (and they still gave Derrick Henry 30+ carries), there's nothing to read into there.
The highest neutral pass rates were the Patriots, Giants, Eagles, Steelers, and Dolphins. No huge surprises there. The Bucs had been at the top of the list in pass rate early on this year, but they ran the ball significantly more in week four with a 53% neutral rush rate and a 34% rush rate overall
Possibly the biggest takeaway here is the Bears' 84% neutral rush rate in a competitive game. The loss of David Montgomery for more than a month may change this a little bit, but right now Damien Williams appears to be stepping into a 20+ touch per game role.
Snap Count Leaders
More Adam Thielen and Terry McLaurin at the top. An affirmation for Robert Woods, despite another low fantasy score, as he was on the field for just as many snaps as Cooper Kupp.
Some more interesting names posting encouraging snap rates in week four: James Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Tim Patrick, Darrell Henderson, Bryan Edwards, Quintez Cephus, A.J. Green.
Names with discouraging snap counts: Kenyan Drake, Curtis Samuel (eased in, no huge concern here), Darrel Williams, Rondale Moore, Brandon Bolden, DeSean Jackson, Tony Pollard. Now to passers!
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields is the most interesting name here to me showing a crazy high 13.6 average air yards per pass attempt. It seems, for right now, that Fields will either be running the ball or throwing it deep. He was also quite effective with 12.3 yards per attempt to lead the week. Matt Ryan saw his ADoT go way up to 10.5 after posting one of the lowest numbers in that category for the first three weeks. That is quite good news for Calvin Ridley and company.
Mac Jones once again threw the ball quite a bit but not down field, throwing it 40 times and piling up just 206 air yards. The 49ers really limited the Seahawks' vertical passing game, holding Russell Wilson to just 5.4 average air yards on pass attempts - very unusual for him. I'll let you fine fantasy players parse through the table for more insights.
Touches
No surprise that Henry took down another touch title, seeing 33 carries and two catches. Alvin Kamara kept seeing a lot of the ball, but all of his touches were handoffs this week which is really discouraging in PPR leagues.
The two most interesting things near the top of the list were the Bucs showing that Leonard Fournette is the guy that will get a boost with Giovani Bernard out, and the 49ers showing a bit more confidence in Trey Sermon. Sermon handled 19 carries, which was wildly unexpected even with Elijah Mitchell missing another week. James Conner also was the Cardinals go-to guy this week carrying the ball 20 times.
Receivers/Tight Ends
Cooper Kupp's somewhat disappointing fantasy week is nothing to worry about as he saw 13 targets and 114 air yards, big numbers once again. Terry McLaurin led the way in air yards with a big number of 217 on a 16.7 yard ADoT. As we talked about earlier, it was an encouraging week for Calvin Ridley as he saw a season-high 198 air yards.
DeVonta Smith, Odell Beckham Jr., and Corey Davis were also encouraging names seeing a bunch of air yards in week four.
Target Data
Here's a new table I'm adding this week, it shows each week's target shares for each player. It's most useful to search a team abbreviation here and see how the target shares have broke down each week.
Receiving Risers and Fallers
To wrap it up, here's the big table of pass-catcher data where I compare week four against the previous season averages to see whose roles increase and decreased last week.
The biggest target gainers were Jeremy McNichols, Robby Anderson, Kadarius Toney, Antonio Brown, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Cole Beasley, Mike Williams, and Marvin Jones were at the bottom of that list. Most of that stuff was due to injuries and weird game environments, so there's no huge news to take from that.
Ricky Seals-Jones saw his snap count come way up with the Logan Thomas injury, and Malcolm Brown and Leonard Fournette also saw much more opportunity in week four. Those are two names to look at in the future as the RB position is really thinning out. Search through the rest of the table for players you're interested in and check it out.
As always, let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for this weekly piece! I am always reachable on Twitter @JonPGH. Thanks for reading!
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