RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! As we head into Week 4 of the NFL season, we are approaching the time where getting off to a slow start can cross the line and get into "I may be digging too deep of a hole to climb out of " territory. It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions, and start right players to put out your optimal lineups.
With that being said, it's just as important to sit the proper players who may end up having rough days, and hurt your chances of winning your Week 4 matchups. Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations.
No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of guys who are by no means a must-start in Week 4.
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QB - Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr has filled the stat sheet with passing yards to start off the season, as he has averaged 401 yards and two passing touchdowns per game. In Week 4, he is in for his toughest matchup of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers defense that held Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs to just 260 passing yards and two inceptions in Week 3. Mahomes isn't the only star quarterback who has had difficulty against the Chargers, as Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys threw for just 237 yards and no touchdowns a week prior. The main reason that Carr could bust this week is mainly because of the projected decline in passing volume. He has averaged 45 pass attempts through the first three games of the season, but going against a strong pass defense may call for a more balanced attack on offense.
With Josh Jacobs potentially returning to action this week, the Raiders could look to take advantage of the Chargers' poor run defense so far this season. Historically, they haven't been shy to give their former first-round draft a hefty workload, so it would be no surprise for them to exploit the weakness of their opposition's defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 100 yards in Week 3, and the duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 180 yards in Week 2. Considering Carr was likely not drafted in a ton of leagues, fantasy managers thankfully don’t have to rely on him this week as he could be in for a dud. I project Carr gets less than 275 passing yards and throws less than two touchdowns.
RB - Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
After his Week 3 performance where he handled 22 touches and scored a touchdown for the first time since 2019, Barkley looks like he is back to or very close to his old self. However, he is in for another very hard matchup against the New Orleans Saints who have not been very nice to opposing running backs for the past number of seasons. When you match up the Giants' thin offensive line with the Saints' elite run defense, it is a recipe for a potentially extremely inefficient day for Barkley, which he has shown to do in the past.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Saints have given up just 60.3 rushing yards per game, good for third-fewest in the NFL. In Week 2, Christian McCaffrey was held to just 72 rushing yards on 24 attempts, which was a very inefficient three yards per carry. However, he made up for his poor performance on the ground as a receiver out of the backfield, as he caught five passes for 65 yards. One thing that was encouraging from last week that carries over into Week 4 for Barkley was his usage in the passing game. He caught six passes on seven targets, so he has the chance to make up for any inefficiency on the ground with the passing game. Even with his less-than-inspiring outlook in this one, fantasy managers can expect RB2 numbers from the stud running back.
RB - Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Harris struggled on the ground in Week 3 against the Saints as he finished with just six carries for 14 yards. Look away fantasy managers, because he could be in for a performance reminiscent of this one for a second consecutive week. When you think of nightmare matchups for a running back, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team that comes to mind. For the first three weeks of the season, the Tampa Bay defense has shown why that is the case. They've given up just 63.7 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest) against the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Davis, and Sony Michel.
Almost nothing in this matchup favors Harris, as the game script will likely call for Mac Jones trying to get chunk plays as they trail. In Week 3, the Patriots were chasing the game which led to him being phased out of the game plan. With Tom Brady and the dynamic Tampa Bay offense in town, this will likely once again limit Harris’ usage as a ball-carrier. By no means is the former Alabama star is a must-start option this week, as he almost certainly needs to score a touchdown to have any sort of noteworthy fantasy production. He is best valued as a low-end FLEX option in Week 4.
Damien Harris’ snap shares through three weeks:
53% Week 1
41% Week 2
31% Week 3— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) September 27, 2021
RB - Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
With McCaffrey set to miss Week 4 against the Cowboys, Hubbard is the shiny new toy for fantasy managers who were fortunate enough to get him on the waiver wire. The rookie entered the game in relief of the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick last Thursday night against the Houston Texans and looked impressive. He carried the ball 11 times 52 yards and caught three passes for an additional 27 yards. In what used to be a dream matchup for running backs, the Cowboys have surprisingly been solid against the run this season. They have given up just 70.3 rushing yards per game, good for the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Hubbard will likely need a lot of volume in this game to produce solid numbers for fantasy managers if the Cowboys continue to play lights out against the run.
Many are expecting that Hubbard gets all the work in this one, but it is hard to believe that Royce Freeman won’t have much of a role in McCaffrey’s absence. He did handle just five carries against the Texans, but Matt Rhule has gone on record saying that both running backs will “play a lot” for however long their superstar dual-threat is sidelined. Too much stock shouldn't be put into their usage from Week 3, because typically teams don’t exactly have much of a role planned out for their No. 3 running back heading into a game. There is still the possibility that they take a split backfield approach considering Freeman is still a serviceable NFL player that can contribute, so fantasy managers may want to wait a week before slotting Hubbard into their RB2 or FLEX spot.
WR - DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins is in for all he can handle against Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. He is obviously one of the best receivers in the NFL and a must-start option on a weekly basis, but fantasy managers could be in for the second consecutive dud performance from the Arizona Cardinals’ No.1 wideout. Hopkins finished with just three receptions for 21 yards against the weak Jacksonville Jaguars defense in Week 3, but this could have been because he was dealing with a rib injury and was questionable to play the entire week. However, his usage the past two games hasn't been all that inspiring as he has been targeted 10 times total and amassed just 75 receiving yards.
Historically, Hopkins hasn't exactly gotten the better of Ramsey all that often. In nine career matchups, he has averaged six receptions for 66 yards and scored four total touchdowns. A lot of volume could potentially salvage a lack of efficiency in this one, but it is hard to believe quarterback Kyler Murray will be looking for his stud receiver all that often if he is being shadowed by the league’s No. 1 cornerback. Murray has shown he can spread the ball around the field, as we have already seen numerous big fantasy performances from Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk, and A.J. Green to start the season. Once again, unless you play in a very shallow league, you likely can’t afford to sit your WR1.
Jalen Ramsey vs. DeAndre Hopkins@Sarina looks at Sunday's exciting matchup pic.twitter.com/B8Mb3gS3Yy
— Stadium (@Stadium) September 29, 2021
WR - Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Even with Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard questionable to play in this one, the outlook for Golladay doesn't get any better considering he will likely be seeing a lot of Marshon Lattimore in this game. Golladay hasn't been used as a deep threat all that often to start his tenure with the Giants, which is surprising considering that is the part of his game that he excels the most at. This could be the game where Golladay sees his most action considering Slayton and Shepard could be ruled out, as he has been targeted 19 times through the first three games of the season. He will likely need a ton of volume and or to find the end zone to produce starting-caliber numbers for fantasy managers on Sunday.
Through the first three games, Lattimore is the highest-graded cornerback in the NFL. He shut down Davante Adams in Week 1 as he gave up just five catches for 56 yards, and in Week 3 was thrown at nine times, which turned into just four catches for 42 yards from the Patriots’ receivers. Considering his draft price, fantasy managers likely have better options at the receiver position and can afford to leave the former Detroit Lion on their bench this week. Some better options could include names like Tim Patrick, Antonio Brown, and Michael Pittman Jr.
Marshon Lattimore: 88.0 PFF grade this season
1st among all CBs 🔒🔒 pic.twitter.com/Minps8lGZY
— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) September 29, 2021
TE - Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Gesicki saw a season-high 12 targets that turned into 10 receptions for 86 yards in Week 3, but in Week 4 it may be tough for the 25-year-old to repeat these numbers. The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, so Gesicki will need a ton of volume once again to have a productive day for fantasy managers. Yes, he saw a ton of work in a game that went to overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders. But, is he likely to see these types of numbers once again? Probably not. It is safe to say the Dolphins coaching staff doesn't want Jacoby Brissett to throw the ball 49 times again this week, as he has not been all that impressive in his two appearances this season.
Not to mention, there is an abundance of solid receivers on the roster which includes Jaylen Waddle, who saw 13 targets last week, Will Fuller, and DeVante Parker. Without Fuller in the first two weeks of the season, Gesicki saw just eight total targets and caught three passes for 41 yards. With him back in the lineup, it is more likely than not that Gesicki sees usage that is similar to that of the first two weeks rather than the outlier that was Week 3. There aren't many great options at the position, but Gesicki seems like a trap for fantasy managers this week. Other options could include Robert Tonyan, Dawson Knox, or Anthony Firkser.
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