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Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 19 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.
Wow, that was a crazy trade deadline. It seemed like every other player was getting traded on Friday. Now that things have settled down we can begin to analyze how all these moves will impact fantasy leagues, but one thing they haven't changed are this week's two-start streamers.
First thing's first, let's recap the last two weeks. It was a rough performance overall from the guys mentioned in Week 17's column, but by the time the dust settled, Alec Mills was the best of the worst as he went 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.444 WHIP and seven strikeouts. Looking at Week 18, so far if you picked any of the five pitchers on that list you're feeling pretty good after their first outing. However, now that Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson have been traded, they're not locks to make a second start this week.
Enough about that and enough about the trade deadline. Let's dive into Week 19's two-start streaming options.
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Week 19 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Chris Flexen, SEA - 47% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ TBR, @ NYY
After several years of struggling with the Mets, Flexen finally seems to be figuring things out this year with the Mariners after spending 2020 in the KBO. Over 19 starts this year, he has gone 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.252 WHIP over 108 2/3 innings of work, although he's provided minimal strikeout value as he owns a 15.5 percent strikeout rate. Flexen got rocked in his last outing against Houston, but in his other four starts in the month of July, Flexen went 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP over 25 1/3 innings pitched.
He'll be on the road for both starts this week, which could spell trouble as he has pitched worse on the road (5.92 ERA, 1.605 WHIP) than at home (2.67 ERA, 1.061 WHIP) this season. He'll start things off with a difficult matchup against a hot Rays team that is slashing .256/.323/.474 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. Flexen won't get any benefit from the Rays' lefty-righty splits, but he could get a slight boost as the Rays are hitting worse this season in Tampa Bay (.230/.321/.391) than on the road (.235/.311/.415). While Flexen isn't getting many strikeouts this year, he should still manage to pick up a few against the Rays, who have the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 26.2 percent.
Flexen will wrap up his two-game road trip in New York against the Yankees, who have slashed .235/.335/.401 and averaged 4.2 runs per game over their last 10 games. This looks on paper to be a solid matchup for Flexen, as not only are the Yankees hitting worse against right-handers (.225/.315/.394) than against lefties this season (.256/.341/.432), but they are also hitting slightly worse at home (.228/.325/.394) than on the road (.241/.321/.393). Plus, the Yankees own the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 24.6 percent.
There's not a ton of upside to be found with Flexen this week, but while he may not put up huge numbers, he should still put up solid performances against a pair of AL East opponents. This will likely be his best week of the season when it comes to strikeouts, and while there is a fair amount of risk in starting him, he has a good shot at providing solid value in most formats.
Johnny Cueto, SFG - 29% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ ARI, @ MIL
Cueto is in the midst of a nice bounce-back year on the mound following disappointing campaigns in 2019 and 2020. He's currently 7-5 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.249 WHIP and 21.1 percent strikeout rate over 93 2/3 innings of work. Cueto finished the month of July going 1-2 with a 4.39 ERA over five starts, but despite that he saw an uptick in strikeouts as he recorded a 26.9 percent strikeout rate.
Like with Flexen, he'll be on the road for both of his starts in Week 19 and he'll start things off in the desert against Arizona. Surprisingly, this looks to be a difficult matchup for Cueto, as he has already faced the Diamondbacks on the road twice this year and has gone 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over 10 innings of work. Arizona has been hitting well over their last 10 games, slashing .258/.349/.451 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over that span. That doesn't bode well for Cueto in this matchup, and while it hasn't worked out for him yet, theoretically he should see a small boost thanks to the Diamondbacks struggles against right-handed pitching this year, where they're slashing .228/.303/.362.
He'll close out the week going against another hot-hitting team in Milwaukee, as the Brewers are slashing .283/.356/.444 and averaging 6.2 runs per game over their last 10 games. While that obviously doesn't look great, there are a few points in Cueto's favor against Milwaukee. First, the Brewers are hitting worse this season against right-handers (.226/.314/.385) than against left-handers (.233/.326/.403). They've also hit significantly worse this year playing at home (.218/.311/.378) than on the road (.237/.323/.400). To top it all off, they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.6 percent.
That Diamondbacks outing could be another rough one for Cueto, but Arizona has been inconsistent enough all year long that Cueto could finally get a breakthrough against them this week. Despite leading the NL Central and being one of the hotter hitting teams in the league recently, Milwaukee could prove to be a sneaky good matchup for Cueto. I'm not going to say Cueto is the best option to choose off this week's column, but he should still be a useful option as a streamer in Week 19.
Week 19 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Adrian Houser, MIL - 13% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs PIT, vs SFG
While he may not have high strikeout numbers, Houser has been having a good month in July where he's gone 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, 1.273 WHIP and 16.7 percent strikeout rate over 22 innings of work. He'll look to kick things off in August with his fifth appearance of the season against Pittsburgh, after going 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA, 0.771 WHIP and seven strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings of work against the Pirates in July. The Pirates had been hitting well recently, but their offense has come to a grinding halt over their last three games where they are slashing .158/.216/.253 and averaging 1.3 runs per game. They are also hitting worse on the road (.235/.298/.361) than at home (.240/.319/.375) this season, which is another point in Houser's favor. He'll close out the week against the Giants, who have struggled over their last 10 games by hitting .222 while averaging 3.7 runs per game. On top of that, they have been hitting considerably worse on the road (.235/.311/.430) than at home (.252/.343/.436).
The only real concern with Houser is that he has not reached five innings pitched in two of his last four starts, so there's the potential that he could put up good rate numbers but miss out on wins. That matchup with the Pirates should be about as sure a thing as you can predict in fantasy, and if he can put up even an OK performance with the Giants, he should provide solid value in Week 19.
Dane Dunning, TEX - 12% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs LAA, @ OAK
Much like with Houser, Dunning has also had a solid performance in the month of July, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.000 WHIP and 19.5 percent strikeout rate across 20 innings of work. Those numbers do come with the caveat though that three of his four starts in July came against the Tigers (twice) and the Diamondbacks. He'll open up the week facing an Angels squad that is hitting fairly well over their last 10 games, as they're slashing .242/.301/.398 and averaging 3.7 runs per game in that span. The biggest benefit Dunning will have against Los Angeles is the double whammy of him pitching better at home (2.58 ERA, 1.204 WHIP) than on the road (6.45 ERA, 1.699 WHIP), plus the Angels hitting significantly worse on the road (.240/.298/.395) than at home (.274/.338/.482). He'll close out the week against Oakland, as they are coming off a 10-game stretch currently in which they're averaging 4.4 runs per game and hitting .232 with a .687 OPS. Dunning will be helped by the fact that the Athletics have struggled to hit at home (.221/.312/.383) compared to their numbers on the road (.246/.312/.423).
Dunning will also have the same concern as with Houser in that Dunning has only pitched five or more innings twice in his last four starts. One thing in Dunning's favor though is he has a higher strikeout rate this year (23.4%) than Houser does (18.2%). They should provide equal value across the board with the exception of strikeouts
Michael Wacha, TBR - 3% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs SEA, @ BAL
If you're looking for a risky play this week, Wacha is your guy. He's been inconsistent all season long, and through nine appearances in May and June he only pitched more than four innings in a start one time. However things seem to be turning around for him, as he's gone 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.050 WHIP and a 27.2 percent strikeout rate over 20 innings of work in July. He'll start off the week with what should be a solid matchup against Seattle, as they are slashing .220/.300/.379 against right-handed pitching this year to go along with their 26.4 percent strikeout rate — which is the worst mark in the majors this year. The one thing that could go against Wacha's favor is that the Mariners are hitting better on the road (.234/.304/.405) than at home (.207/.289/.360) this season. Wacha will close out the week when he travels to Baltimore where he'll face the Orioles for the third time this year. He'll look for better results this time out, as he's posted a 5.14 ERA and 1.286 WHIP over seven innings against the Orioles so far. While it hasn't worked out for him just yet, Wacha should potentially benefit from the fact that the Orioles are hitting far worse against right-handers this year (.222/.292/.379) than against lefties (.268/.326/.432).
Of the two starts, Wacha should put up better results against Seattle this week. While he hasn't looked great against the Orioles over his first two games against them, looking at this matchup on paper he should have a solid outing. With his recent hot streak on the mound, he could be poised to have a great week as a streamer. Consider him a high-risk, medium-to-high reward option in Week 19.
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